Damaging Wind in Alabama, August 4, 2020

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
110 PM CDT Tue Aug 4 2020

.NEAR TERM...(Tonight)
Issued at 110 PM CDT Tue Aug 4 2020

As suspected, deep convection has struggled a bit due to the mid
level cap. However, expect the current SHRA along the cold front and
in advance of the front to become TSRA soon. Small hail and brief
gusty winds would be the main hazards at this point. The good news is
that this activity should dissipate altogether with loss of heating,
so going with a dry forecast overnight. Patchy fog and low cloudiness
cannot be ruled out late tonight.

.SHORT TERM...(Wednesday through Thursday night)
Issued at 110 PM CDT Tue Aug 4 2020

The cold front and upper trough axis should push slowly into central
and northeast AL on Wednesday into Thursday, but linger close enough
to produce at least isolated afternoon and early evening showers or
thunderstorms. Confidence on chances further west is too low to
include throughout the forecast area however. The elevated terrain
may also aid a few showers or thunderstorms on Thursday afternoon in
northeast AL and southern middle TN, generally east of I-65. Have
continued to trend of forecasting highs about 2-3 greater than
the suggested blend, with u80s-l90s at most valley locations both
Wed-Thu afternoons (m80s atop the higher elevations).

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 110 PM CDT Tue Aug 4 2020

Later this week, the upper-level ridge over the Central Plains shifts
eastward over the Tennessee Valley, decreasing our chances for
showers and leading to a warming trend going into this weekend.
Meanwhile, a strong upper-level trough pushes into the PacNW and
British Columbia, which starts to break down this upper-level ridge
over the weekend. This will allow for shortwaves to ridge over the
top of the ridge which enhance southerly flow into the Tennessee
Valley going into early next week.

In general, what this means is a warm and mostly dry start to the
weekend, with only a couple isolated showers on Friday; however
decreasing subsidence from the weakening ridge will allow for
increasing chances for afternoon/evening thunderstorms Saturday,
Sunday, and Monday. Increasing southerly flow will keep temperatures
in the low-to-mid 90s over the weekend into early next week, with
heat indices up near 100 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1119 AM CDT Tue Aug 4 2020

Scattered to broken cumulus field at or above 040agl will develop
into scattered SHRA and TSRA by 18Z. At this time, have opted for
VCSH at both KMSL and KHSV thru 21Z, and will amend as necessary to
account for movement and coverage of SHRA and TSRA. This activity
should diminish or dissipate by ~00-02Z. A cold front will shift
winds from west to northwest this afternoon and early evening, and
become northerly Wednesday morning after 12Z.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

NEAR TERM...17
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM...McCoy
AVIATION...17

For more information please visit our website
at weather.gov/huntsville.

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
232 PM CDT Tue Aug 4 2020

ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-051045-
Lauderdale-Colbert-Franklin AL-Lawrence-Limestone-Madison-Morgan-
Marshall-Jackson-DeKalb-Cullman-Moore-Lincoln-Franklin TN-
232 PM CDT Tue Aug 4 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north Alabama and portions of
southern middle Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Tonight...

Isolated thunderstorms are possible this evening as a cold front
passes southeastward across the outlook area. Brief wind gusts up to
40 MPH are possible with the strongest cells. The threat for
thunderstorms will end across northeastern Alabama shortly after
sunset, as the cold front exits the region.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday...

A low chance for mainly afternoon and early evening thunderstorms
will exist across far northeastern Alabama and a small portion of
southern Middle Tennessee from Wednesday through Friday. Chances for
storms will gradually increase for all areas during the period from
Saturday through Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of storm spotters and emergency management personnel is
not anticipated at this time.