NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 4, 5:59 AM EST, 1 hour 16 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Aug 4, 5:59 AM EST, 1 hour 16 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
659 AM EDT Tue Aug 4 2020
.SYNOPSIS...
Tropical Cyclone Isaias is expected to move north and reach the
Mid Atlantic later Tuesday. Isaias will move toward New England
by Wednesday. High pressure will build in to our north later
this week into this weekend while a weak front lingers to our
south.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
***Significant Impacts Expected From Isaias***
***Tornado Watch In effect For Delmarva and Parts of Southern NJ***
As of 700 AM, Isaias located over eastern Virginia with showers
and embedded storms streaming north through the area well ahead
of the main system. Lift across the area is being aided by a
strengthening upper jet over western PA / NY as the area is in
the favorable right entrance region. There is also low level
convergence associated with a lingering weak front across the
area. The upshot of all this is that heavy showers with embedded
storms have ramped up already with the threat for flash
flooding and and severe weather already increasing early this
morning. There remains sufficient instability with also very
strong low level shear. For this reason, locally damaging winds
will be possible and even a couple isolated tornadoes given the
strong low level SRH and lowering LCLs. Best chances for this
will be for Delmarva, SE PA, and central and southern NJ but
this threat will spread north through this morning. In fact the
SPC has issued a Tornado Watch covering much of this area
(except SE PA) that is in effect until Noon.
By mid to late morning is when condition deteriorate further as
Isaias quickly advances towards the area. Tropical Cyclone
Isaias will speed quickly northward in response to a strong jet
streak passing through the region. Forecast models and the NHC
remain consistent in tracking the storm right through the heart
of the CWA near the urban corridor. It will also be starting to
undergo extratropical transition as it moves through our region.
The main timeframe of concern for the storm's strong winds,
heaviest rainfall and other associated impacts is mid/late
morning through much of the afternoon before the storm exits by
early this evening.
Multiple hazards with Isaias are expected including, but not
limited to, fresh water flooding, coastal flooding/storm surge,
strong winds and isolated tornadoes. The greatest precipitation
amounts are forecast to fall near and especially N/W of the
urban corridor. 3-6 inches of rain with locally higher amounts
up to 8 inches are expected. This will lead to a high flash
flooding threat, especially for the more urbanized areas and
portions of Berks County that received an excessive amount of
rain Sunday morning. In fact the flooding has the potential to
be widespread and significant. There also continues to be
increasing confidence widespread damaging winds will be an
issue...especially near and to the right of the storms track so
basically from the urban corridor S/E. Again, while the system
will be starting to lose its tropical characteristics, because
of the strong baroclinic zone it will be moving into this won't
allow it to really weaken much. Winds will initially be from the
E/SE then shift to NW behind the system. Sustained winds of 50+
mph are likely along the coast with gusts potentially exceeding
hurricane force (74+ mph). Farther N/W towards the I-95
corridor, widespread gusts of 50 to 60+ mph will be possible.
Importantly, it should be noted that because the storm will be
starting to become extratropical, the strongest winds/gusts over
inland areas could be immediately following the passage of the
storms center this afternoon since there will be better mixing
in this quadrant. And finally, the tornado threat: The threat
for isolated tornadoes is beginning to develop over southern
parts of our region during the predawn hours (as described
above) and this will spread north as we go through the rest of
the night into Tuesday morning. Areas near and S/E of urban
corridor will have the best chance for tornadoes.
The trend is for the storm to move through a bit faster than
previously forecast so expect it should be exiting by the
latter part of this afternoon into this evening. Winds/rain
should abate fairly quickly from south to north as this occurs.
Otherwise, Tuesday night should then finally feature quieter
weather though a secondary front and upper level wave could
trigger a few scattered showers.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
Quieter weather for Wednesday as high pressure starts to build
in to our north. This will bring a mainly dry day with
seasonable temperatures under partly to mostly sunny skies.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A fairly typical but overall quieter summer pattern is expected
for the long term forecast. The mean upper level trough over the
east will lift out but the mid Atlantic region will remain in a
fairly moist W/SW flow regime around high pressure ridging over
the western Atlantic. This will result in chances for scattered
showers/storms most days that will be mainly diurnally driven
meaning the best chances will be in the afternoon and early
evening. Temperatures will be around average for this time of
year.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.
Today... A rapid deterioration in conditions is expected from
south to north soon after 12z. MVFR to IFR conditions are
expected through much of the day in association with Hurricane
Isaias. Areas of torrential rainfall with low vsbys are likely.
Strong and erratic winds are expected with a sharp change in
wind direction expected during the mid afternoon. Gusts may be
briefly higher than shown in the TAFs especially near MIV and
ACY. While confidence is low in exact details and timing,
confidence is high in the overall trend, with hazardous aviation
conditions expected for most of the area.
Tonight... Mainly VFR. Southwest winds 10 to 20 kt diminishing to 5
to 10 kt. Moderate confidence.
Outlook...
Wednesday through Saturday...Mostly VFR. Scattered SHRA/TSRA
possible each afternoon/evening that would result in brief sub-
VFR conditions at a given terminal. Fog may develop during the
overnight. West winds less than 10 kt on Wednesday, then east to
northeast Thursday through Saturday. LGT/VRB at night. Moderate
confidence.
&&
.MARINE...
Today and Tonight... Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect as Isaias
moves north through North Carolina. Isaias will continue to head
north and then northeast and approach the area early this morning.
This morning into afternoon sustained winds of 45 to 55 kts appears
likely with gusts up to Hurricane force expected. Heavy rain, and
isolated waterspouts, this morning into early afternoon will give
way to a gradual improving of conditions later this afternoon. Seas
will also build to between 12 and 18 feet over the Atlantic coastal
waters. A slow decrease in seas down towards 5 feet can be expected
by Wednesday morning.
Outlook...
Wednesday morning...Seas may linger near 5 feet on the New Jersey
coastal waters but should subside below advisory criteria by midday.
Wednesday afternoon through Saturday...Sub-advisory winds/seas
expected through the period. Chances of showers/storms through the
period, especially in the afternoon/evening hours.
Rip Currents...
On Tuesday, impacts from Isaias will increase the rip-current risk
level to high. In addition, high surf is expected. A rip
current risk statement and high surf advisory are in effect for
this period, so in conclusion Tuesday will not be a good day to
be at the beach.
The rip current risk will likely remain elevated on Wednesday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Hydro concerns continue early this morning as showers/storms continue
ahead of Isaias. Any of these will be capable of producing heavy
rain with at least localized flash flooding possible. The heaviest,
steadiest rain with the storm will arrive this morning from
south to north with more widespread flash flooding becoming a
big concern during this time. Most susecptible areas will be
near and N/W of the I-95 corridor especially since places such
as in Berks County have received so much rainfall recently. With
Isaias, 3 to 6 inches of rain, with locally higher amounts are
expected. Flooding could be widespread and significant.
In addition to flash flooding, river flooding is also expected. But
with a more consolidated area of rainfall across PA, the threat
across NJ including the Passaic and Raritan basins has lessened. The
latest MARFC forecast still has about 15 forecast points above
Action Stage and 6 at or above Flood Stage, including, Philadelphia,
Norristown, and Pottstown on the Schuylkill, Graterford on Perkiomen
Creek, Langhorne on Neshaminy Creek, and Chadds Ford and Wilmington
on the Brandywine. The latest forecast has these points cresting
later today or tonight. With such a large swath of precipitation
expected along and west of the I95 corridor, most basins in this
area will see at least some threat. That said, the Delaware River is
expected to remain within its banks.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
The coastal flooding impacts from Isaias remain very uncertain at
this time. Models notoriously handle fast-moving, intense cyclones
poorly in our area, as the short duration of onshore flow competes
with the strength of the winds. These competing impacts and
sensitivities are not well understood from a modeling standpoint,
leading to rather large spread in the model guidance.
Coastal flooding impacts are expected across the area today, with
four different regions we will be monitoring. The first, and
potentially most significant, is for the eastern shore of Chesapeake
Bay, where surge will likely move northward during the day. What is
unclear, however, is the strength of this surge. Model guidance is
particularly poor for these areas, and the output the past couple of
days seems unrealistically low. However, the extent of impacts
remains quite unclear. At this point, there is potential for
moderate flooding, which requires continuation of the coastal flood
warning. However, it is possible impacts will be less
significant/widespread. We will likely not have a better idea of
impacts until after daybreak, when gauges in lower Chesapeake Bay
begin to respond.
The second area is Delaware Bay. The real question here will be the
timing of the surge relative to the astronomical high tide.
With guidance trending a little faster with the surge, the timing
looks a little less favorable for coincidence of peak surge and
astronomical high tide for the Delaware Bay sites.
Nevertheless, the strength of southeast winds in advance of Isaias
may compensate much more readily than models suggest. A coastal
flood advisory has been issued here for the entire day given the
uncertainty of peak surge timing.
The third area is the tidal Delaware River. Here, confidence is
increasing that minor flooding will occur during the afternoon, as
predecessor southeast winds will likely combine with freshwater
runoff to lead to a period of tidal flooding from early afternoon to
early evening. As with Delaware Bay, confidence is not particularly
high on exact timing of flooding, so have issued a coastal flood
advisory for a broader period of time than normal (11 am to 8 pm).
The fourth area is the Atlantic coast. As with Delaware Bay, timing
of the strongest surge appears to occur between astronomical high
tides. However, the strength of onshore flow and exacerbating
behavior of wave runup will likely produce areas of flooding. Of
particular concern is back bays that are susceptible to southeast
flow, which can act to trap water. Barnegat Bay and Little Assawoman
Bay are particularly susceptible in these regimes, and these areas
may experience more widespread/significant flooding. Confidence is
pretty low in general for the coast, but given the very strong
onshore flow expected today, suspect at least some impacts in the
especially vulnerable spots are likely.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
The NOAA Weather Radio All-Hazards broadcast from Hibernia Park
Pennsylvania (Station WNG-704) remains off the air.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Flash Flood Watch through this evening for PAZ054-055-060>062-
070-071-101>106.
Tropical Storm Warning for PAZ070-071-101>106.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT
this evening for PAZ070-071-106.
NJ...Flash Flood Watch through this evening for NJZ001-007>010-
012>027.
Tropical Storm Warning for NJZ001-007>010-012>027.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NJZ016-
021-023-024.
High Rip Current Risk through this evening for NJZ014-024>026.
High Surf Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for NJZ014-
024>026.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 2 AM EDT
Wednesday for NJZ012>014-020-022-025>027.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT
this evening for NJZ017>019.
DE...Flash Flood Watch through this evening for DEZ001>004.
Tropical Storm Warning for DEZ001>004.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for
DEZ001>004.
High Rip Current Risk through this evening for DEZ004.
High Surf Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for DEZ004.
MD...Flash Flood Watch through this evening for MDZ008-012-015-019-
020.
Tropical Storm Warning for MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
Coastal Flood Warning from 11 AM this morning to 6 AM EDT
Wednesday for MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...Tropical Storm Warning for ANZ430-431-450>455.
&&
Synopsis...Fitzsimmons
Near Term...Fitzsimmons
Short Term...Fitzsimmons
Long Term...Fitzsimmons/MPS
Aviation...O'Brien
Marine...CMS
Hydrology...WFO PHI
Tides/Coastal Flooding...WFO PHI
Equipment...WFO PHI