Scattered thunderstorms developed along a lake breeze front during the early afternoon. One storm produced damaging winds in Racine County.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MKX wrote it up.
Scattered thunderstorms developed along a lake breeze front during the early afternoon. One storm produced damaging winds in Racine County.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Milwaukee, WI wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 17, 12:26 PM CST, 4 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
126 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2019
.UPDATE...
Scattered thunderstorms developed along the lake breeze very
quickly this afternoon. They are producing heavy rain and wind
gusts up to 40 mph. There are some isolated cells developing over
inland areas early this afternoon as well. With surface-based CAPE
values around 2000 j/kg, no wind shear, and steep low level lapse
rates, these will be pulse thunderstorms. An individual storm is
not going to last long, but more storms can develop along their
outflow boundaries. The precipitable water values over southern
WI right now are around 1.7 inches, which suggest efficient
rainfall rates and the potential for heavy rain with slow-moving
storms.
&&
.AVIATION(18Z TAFS)...
Scattered thunderstorms developed along the lake breeze and
isolated showers and with a few rumbles of thunder are developing
inland as well. The environment is capable of short-lived pulse
thunderstorms that produce heavy rain and gusty winds. MVFR
ceilings are possible with storms, but otherwise expect VFR
ceilings through the evening.
A line of storms may track through southern WI overnight. Besides
heavy rain, the main severe threat with these storms would be
damaging winds, mainly from Madison and west. Showers with a
chance for MVFR ceilings may linger through Thursday morning, but
expect gusty southerly winds to develop Thu afternoon as the
clouds clear out.
&&
.MARINE...
It appears that the dense fog has dissipated across the north half
of Lake Michigan but is lingering over the south half. We allowed
the north half Dense Fog Advisory to expire, but kept the south
half (and nearshore area near southeast WI) in effect through mid
evening. Southerly winds will develop tonight which will diminish
the chance for fog.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 1008 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2019)
UPDATE...
Low clouds are hugging the shoreline of Lake Michigan this
morning. There are areas of dense fog over Lake Michigan.
Thunderstorms over western Iowa are expected to slide southeast
and miss southern WI this afternoon. The round of thunderstorms of
our concern should begin to develop between the Twin Cities and
Duluth early this evening and track southeast through WI overnight
into Thursday morning. Some of the 12z meso models are suggesting
that the focus for the stronger storms might be more across
northern WI overnight, but most bring at least some rain to
southern WI.
MARINE...
Dense Fog Advisory remains in effect over the lake through 1 pm,
but we will monitor trends via satellite to see if it needs to
get extended through the night. Increasing southerly winds will
develop over Lake Michigan overnight which will help to diminish
the fog. A round of thunderstorms is expected to cross the lake
late tonight into Thursday morning and strong wind gusts are
possible.
Gusty southwest winds may approach Small Craft Advisory criteria
for the nearshore of southeast WI Thursday afternoon and Friday.
Another round of storms is possible over the north half of the
lake Thursday night and again Friday night.
PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 634 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2019)
UPDATE...
No major changes to the forecast with clouds mostly moving out
this morning with likely chances for storms this evening and
overnight.
AVIATION(12Z TAFS)...
There are some spots that are seeing some fog but it mostly
remains isolated this morning. Clouds should move mostly out of
the area this morning bringing the sun out. However into the
evening and overnight clouds will move back in as storms approach
from the west. These storms will have the potential to be severe,
especially further to the west. This will cause some concerns for
temporary periods of heavy rain reducing visibilities. Otherwise,
the region should remain mostly in VFR for the period.
PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 421 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2019)
SHORT TERM...
Today And Tonight...Forecast Confidence Is High.
This morning should be mostly dry to start with clouds pushing
out. This should allow us to warm up to the mid to upper 80s
during the day. There will be a slight chance for a few weak
storms to develop in the afternoon along the lake breeze, but
generally it should remain dry during this period.
Into the evening and especially the overnight period we will
likely see some storms, with a few possibly becoming severe.
However, the timing and available CAPE may limit this risk
somewhat. During this period, storms will develop along the warm
front being aided by strong WAA from the fairly strong LLJ just
off to the west. Storms will move east/southeast across
southwestern Wisconsin with 2000-3000 J/kg of MUCAPE and upwards
of 40 kts of 0-6 km bulk shear. This would be enough for a few
severe storms with hail and wind the main threats.
In addition to the severe threat, there will be concerns for
training convection and thus some flooding, primarily across
southwest Wisconsin. While there remains uncertainty with this
system, PWATs look to be around 2 inches, with storms likely to
propagate southwest along the warm front. CAMs seem to support
the idea of training storms, though the better flooding potential
will be further west, given the better timing for storms pushing
through.
Thursday Through Friday Night...Forecast Confidence Is High.
Enough confidence with temperatures and heat index values from
midday Thursday through Friday evening to issue a Heat Advisory
for the entire forecast area.
There is still some uncertainty with how long any clouds will
linger from the exiting convection Thursday morning. However, it
won't take much sun to quickly warm up temperatures, even if it
does not occur until midday. So, felt confident enough to issue
the Heat Advisory starting at noon CDT Thursday.
925 mb temperatures from models, as well as looking at model
certainty trends, suggest highs in the lower 90s for Thursday, and
middle to upper 90s for Friday. Gusty southwest winds are expected
each day, which may lower dew points a little from currently
forecast. However, still expect heat index values to reach 100 to
106 Thursday afternoon, and 103 to 110 Friday afternoon. Given
these values, Friday will have the bigger impact. Record highs at
Milwaukee and Madison may be reached on Friday. Record high
minimums may be reached as well.
Mainly small chances for showers and storms remain Thursday
afternoon and night, as the low level jet remains pointed into the
area. Anything that develops would be elevated, and there is
decent elevated CAPE with decent deep layer bulk shear. SPC
marginal risk lingers Thursday afternoon into Thursday night, and
again mainly Friday night across the area. Friday night may see
showers and storms approach from the northwest, as a cold front
moves toward the area. Area may be capped, so some uncertainty on
how widespread any showers and storms will be Friday night.
LONG TERM...
Saturday Through Sunday...Forecast Confidence Is Low.
A fair amount of uncertainty lingers for this period. The models
are having a tough time finding agreement on trends. Generally
speaking, the cold front may stall over or near the area Saturday
into Saturday night, before a low pressure system moves across
southern Wisconsin or northern Illinois Sunday. The timing and
placement of these features remains in flux, so will maintain
blended model PoPs and temperatures for now.
This uncertainty also leads to less confidence with heat concerns
for Saturday, as clouds and possible convection may limit highs
quite a bit. Lowered highs a little for now, which keeps heat
index values remaining in the middle to upper 90s. Cooler highs in
the 80s for Sunday with the passing low and precipitation look
reasonable.
Sunday Night Through Tuesday...Forecast Confidence Is Medium.
Models are in decent agreement with showing cold air advection
later Sunday into Sunday night/Monday, which should bring back
more seasonable temperatures to the region. High pressure should
then bring quiet weather for the first part of next week.
AVIATION(09Z TAF UPDATES)...
There may be some patchy fog this morning, though VSBYS are not
expected to be impacted much. VFR conditions are expected
throughout the day today, with light and variable winds this
morning turning southerly by the afternoon. Into the evening and
overnight hours storms are expected to push in from the west,
bringing potential for temporary VSBY restrictions and some lower
clouds. The best chances for stronger storms will be further west.
MARINE...
Dense Fog Advisory remains in effect over the lake, with some
dense fog expected to persist through much of the morning hours
before dissipating. Winds will remain fairly light and variable
throughout the day, with winds turning to the south by the
afternoon and strengthening a bit, especially in the northern
half of the lake where gusts could reach 20-25 kts. Otherwise,
showers/storms are expected primarily across the southern half of
the lake by the early morning hours on Thursday, possibly
bringing some stronger gusts.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Heat Advisory from noon Thursday to 11 PM CDT Friday for WIZ046-
047-051-052-056>060-062>072.
LM...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for LMZ080-
643>646-669-671-673-675-777-779-870-872-874-876-878.
&&
Update...Cronce
Today/Tonight and Aviation/Marine...ARK
Thursday THROUGH Tuesday...WoodHazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 108 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2019 WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-181100- Marquette-Green Lake-Fond Du Lac-Sheboygan-Sauk-Columbia-Dodge- Washington-Ozaukee-Iowa-Dane-Jefferson-Waukesha-Milwaukee- Lafayette-Green-Rock-Walworth-Racine-Kenosha- 108 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2019 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of east central Wisconsin, south central Wisconsin and southeast Wisconsin. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight Scattered thunderstorms are developing along the lake breeze this afternoon. These will diminish by early evening. A complex of thunderstorms will likely move into southern Wisconsin overnight into early Thursday morning. There is a slight risk for severe storms over south central Wisconsin tonight, with a marginal risk to the east. Damaging wind is the main hazard, along with heavy rainfall. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday A Heat Advisory is in effect for southern Wisconsin from midday Thursday through Friday evening. Hot and humid conditions are expected, with heat index values of 100 to 106 Thursday afternoon, and 103 to 110 Friday afternoon. Prepare for the heat, and exercise heat safety during this time. There are slight chances for thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and night, and again Friday night. A strong storm or two is possible during these periods. Chances for thunderstorms are forecast at times Saturday into Sunday night. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed tonight into early Thursday morning. LMZ643>646-181100- Sheboygan to Port Washington WI- Port Washington to North Point Light WI- North Point Light to Wind Point WI- Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL- 108 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2019 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the nearshore waters from Sheboygan Wisconsin to Winthrop Harbor Illinois. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight A Dense Fog Advisory is in effect through mid evening. A complex of thunderstorms is likely to spread across the nearshore waters of Lake Michigan overnight into early Thursday morning. There is a marginal risk of severe storms. Strong wind is the main hazard. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday Southwest winds may reach Small Craft Advisory levels Thursday afternoon and Friday. There are slight chances for thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and night, and again Friday night. A strong storm or two is possible during these periods. Chances for thunderstorms are forecast at times Saturday into Sunday night. LMZ080-261-362-364-366-563-565-567-669-671-673-675-777-779-868- 870-872-874-876-878-181100- Lake Michigan Michigan City IN to St. Joseph MI 5 NM offshore to mid-line of lake.- Lake Michigan from Seul Choix Point to Rock Island Passage 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- Lake Michigan South of a line from Seul Choix Point to the Mackinac Bridge and North of a line from Charlevoix MI to South Fox Island 5NM offshore- Lake Michigan from Charlevoix to Point Betsie MI 5NM Offshore to mid lake- Lake Michigan from Point Betsie to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- Lake Michigan from Rock Island Passage to Sturgeon Bay WI 5NM offshore to mid lake- Lake Michigan from Sturgeon Bay to Two Rivers WI 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- Lake Michigan from Two Rivers to Sheboygan WI 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- Lake Michigan from Sheboygan to Port Washington WI 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- Lake Michigan from Port Washington to North Point Light WI 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- Lake Michigan from North Point Light to Wind Point WI 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- Lake Michigan from Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- Lake Michigan from Winthrop Harbor to Wilmette Harbor IL 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- Lake Michigan from Wilmette Harbor to Michigan City in 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- Lake Michigan from Pentwater to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- Lake Michigan from Whitehall to Pentwater MI 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- Lake Michigan from Grand Haven to Whitehall MI 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- Lake Michigan from Holland to Grand Haven MI 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- Lake Michigan from South Haven to Holland MI 5NM offshore to Mid lake- Lake Michigan from St Joseph to South Haven MI 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- 108 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2019 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the open waters of Lake Michigan. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight A Dense Fog Advisory is in effect for the south half through mid evening. A complex of thunderstorms is likely to spread across the southern half of the open waters of Lake Michigan overnight into early Thursday morning. There is a marginal risk of severe storms. Strong wind is the main hazard. There are chances for thunderstorms over the north half of the lake during this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday There are slight chances for thunderstorms Thursday afternoon into Friday, and chances for storms again Friday night into the weekend. A strong storm or two is possible Thursday into Friday night. MRC www.weather.gov/mkx
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 1257 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2019 WIZ071-072-171830- Racine-Kenosha- 1257 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2019 ...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL RACINE AND NORTH CENTRAL KENOSHA COUNTIES... At 1257 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Union Grove, moving south at 5 mph. Winds of 40 to 50 mph are possible with this storm. Locations impacted include... Sturtevant, Union Grove, Eagle Lake, Kansasville and North Cape. LAT...LON 4281 8814 4282 8797 4264 8788 4265 8818 TIME...MOT...LOC 1757Z 346DEG 6KT 4273 8806 BOXELL
The Milwaukee radar (KMKX), 45 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 18:27 UTC.
1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Several large branches down and a few ornamental trees down. A 10 inch diameter tree snapped.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Wisconsin in 2019Every state in 2019This day in weather historyWarnings in Wisconsin, July 2019
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 843225.