A warm front lifted into the Northland on the 2nd with an area of low pressure then moving along the front into the next day. This led to a long duration event across the area.
Every event with a place to put it; 2 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS DLH wrote it up.
A warm front lifted into the Northland on the 2nd with an area of low pressure then moving along the front into the next day. This led to a long duration event across the area. Temperatures profiles across parts of northwest Wisconsin were conducive to freezing rain with up to 1/2 of ice leading to ice covered roads in the northern portions of Ashland and Iron Counties.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Duluth, MN wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 4, 12:16 AM CST, 44 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1216 AM CST Mon Feb 4 2019
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 356 PM CST Sun Feb 3 2019
Heavy snow over northern Minnesota tonight with a mix of snow and
freezing rain farther south. Ice accumulation over portions of
northwest Wisconsin between one-tenth and one-quarter inch are
expected.
A winter storm will move through the Northland tonight and Monday
followed by a surge of Arctic air Monday night. Main focus during
the short term involves the precipitation types and amounts with
the storm. A shortwave trough and associated lobe of vorticity
will move across North Dakota tonight and into northern Minnesota
and northwest Ontario Monday. Meanwhile a jet streak will eject
out of the Central Plains and phase with a jet streak over Ontario
tonight and Monday. The shortwave trough will support a 700 mb
low passing eastward along the International Border and was
responsible for a broad area of snow from eastern Montana to
eastern North Dakota this afternoon. This area of snow will spread
over northern Minnesota this evening. Meanwhile the southern jet
streak will support a strengthening surface low over northwest
Kansas in the vicinity of a baroclinic zone which stretched from
Nebraska to central Upper Michigan this afternoon. Near and north
of the front over northern Wisconsin, isentropic forcing for
ascent will thicken the low-level stratus over the area this
evening. Forecast soundings support drizzle, freezing drizzle, and
fog from central Minnesota east into northwest Wisconsin. The
stratus layer is forecast to be thicker than last night, which
resulted in widespread freezing drizzle from the I-35 corridor
eastward.
Have adjusted the start times and segments for the winter weather
headlines to better reflect the onset of precipitation this
evening and to group similar precipitation regimes and totals
together.
Large-scale forcing for ascent will increase across the area
overnight. Rain and snow rates will tick upward as well with the
period of heaviest precipitation between 06Z and 18Z. Warm air
advection ahead of the surface low over northern Wisconsin will
result in freezing rain slowly changing to snow tonight and Monday
morning. And we expect one-tenth to one-quarter of an inch of ice
accumulation from southern Aitkin county east over much of
northwest Wisconsin. Contemplated upgrading Price and Iron
counties to an Ice Storm Warning. Held off for now due to
uncertainty in how warm temperatures will be this evening and the
amount of precipitation before 06Z. Northern Price and southern
Iron county are right on the cusp of one-quarter inch of ice
accumulation. Overnight snow accumulation of 2 to 5 inches is
expected from northern Cass County to northern St. Louis County
with lower totals farther south.
Precipitation will wind down from southwest to northeast Monday
and portions of the Arrowhead may see light snow showers linger
into the evening. Another surge of Arctic air will move in behind
the departing low for Monday night. Light lake effect snow showers
are possible in the northern Wisconsin snowbelt areas Monday
night and early Tuesday. Overnight lows will dip to 0F to -15F.
.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 356 PM CST Sun Feb 3 2019
Tuesday morning will be dry with high pressure drifting nearby.
In the afternoon, light snow is expected to spread into the area
from the southwest. This is in response to several pieces of
energy in the southwest flow aloft moving into the region. Timing
differences amongst the models and used a blend for onset and
location. The parade continues Tuesday night, with a bit more
moisture to work with. Some light accumulations are possible. A
long wave trof moves into the Rockies on Wednesday which increases
the southwest flow. A few more pieces of energy lift through the
region, maintaining the chance of snow. The long wave trof moves
out into the Plains on Thursday. Instead of pieces of energy, an
elongated area of vorticity moves around the base of the trof and
into the forecast area. Some light accumulations are possible. The
long wave trof moves into the region Thursday night, while the
best forcing begins to move off to the east. Pops will decrease
from west to east through the night. Late Thursday night, the
surface flow turns northwesterly, which would signal some lake
effect snow potential. However, ice coverage along the south shore
has increased and will limit the probability of lake effect snow.
The long wave trof departs allowing upper level and surface
ridging to move into the region Friday and Saturday. Temps will be
below normal through the long term.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1211 AM CST Mon Feb 4 2019
Winter storm to move across the region through this TAF period.
Expect very poor flying conditions with initial IFR to LIFR
conditions, with a mixture of snow for KINL, and a wintry mix for
KHIB, KDLH and KBRD and freezing rain for KHYR. Snow should spread
southeast and become predominant for KHIB, KDLH and KBRD by 10z,
but not until between 14z and 18z for KHYR. Precipitation to come
to a slow end from northwest to southeast beginning around 21z,
with an slow return to VFR conditions between 21z and the end of
the TAF period.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 12 14 -8 10 / 100 100 10 20
INL 0 1 -15 5 / 100 100 10 10
BRD 13 15 -10 10 / 100 100 0 30
HYR 23 25 -3 15 / 100 100 10 30
ASX 20 21 -1 13 / 100 100 40 20
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for WIZ001>004-
006>009.
MN...Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for MNZ012-
019>021.
Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for MNZ018-025-026-
033>038.
Winter Storm Warning until 3 PM CST this afternoon for MNZ010-
011.
LS...None.
&&
SHORT TERM...Huyck
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...LEHazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED National Weather Service Duluth MN 412 PM CST Sun Feb 3 2019 MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-006>009-041130- Koochiching-North St. Louis-Northern Cook/Northern Lake- North Itasca-Central St. Louis-Southern Lake/North Shore- Southern Cook/North Shore-North Cass-South Itasca-South Cass- Crow Wing-Northern Aitkin-South Aitkin-Carlton/South St. Louis- Pine-Douglas-Bayfield-Ashland-Iron-Burnett-Washburn-Sawyer-Price- 412 PM CST Sun Feb 3 2019 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and Tonight Snow and freezing rain are expected for nearly all of the Northland tonight. Overnight snow accumulation will range from 2 to 5 inches in north-central Minnesota to a dusting over northwest Wisconsin and the I-35 corridor. Overnight ice accumulation of up to two-tenths of an inch is possible, with the greatest ice accumulation over portions of northwest Wisconsin. A Winter Storm Warning and Winter Weather Advisory are in effect and contain additional details. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday Snow continues Monday morning over northern Minnesota and portions of northwest Wisconsin, with rain and freezing rain near and south of a line from Hinckley, MN to Hayward, WI to Mercer. Precipitation will taper off from southwest to northeast during the day and mixed precipitation will change over to snow before ending in Wisconsin. Total snow accumulation of 5 to 9 inches is expected over north-central Minnesota, 2 to 5 inches from central Minnesota to the Arrowhead, and 1 to 2 inches in northwest Wisconsin and the I-35 corridor south of Duluth. Total ice accumulation of up to one-quarter inch is expected. Light snow accumulations are possible Tuesday night through Thursday night. Wind chill values will dip into the 20 below zero to 30 below zero range for some locations early Friday morning and again early Saturday morning. Wind chill advisories may eventually be needed. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Snow spotters are requested to report precipitation type, and measurements of snow or ice accumulations to the National Weather Service. Spotters and the public can also report precipitation type with the free M-PING smartphone app. GSF/Huyck More information may be obtained at the following web address: http://www.weather.gov/duluth (all lower case)
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
809 PM CST SUN FEB 3 2019
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0730 PM FREEZING RAIN 2 NNW MELLEN 46.35N 90.67W
02/03/2019 E0.01 INCH ASHLAND WI TRAINED SPOTTER
LIGHT COATING OF ICE ON CAR WINDOWS.
&&PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1008 PM CST SUN FEB 3 2019
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0950 PM FREEZING RAIN GLIDDEN 46.13N 90.58W
02/03/2019 E0.01 INCH ASHLAND WI PUBLIC
UNTREATED SURFACES ICE COVERED FROM MIST AND
FREEZING DRIZZLE.
&&The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
2 ice storm. Local standard time, as filed.
A trained spotter in the Ironwood/Hurley area reported freezing rain and sleet totaling 1/2 leading to ice covered roadways and dangerous driving conditions.
Ice accumulations of 0.35 were reported by a trained spotter in the Sandborn area.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Wisconsin in 2019Every state in 2019This day in weather historyWarnings in Wisconsin, February 2019
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 806964, 806965.