A low pressure system dropped south along the coast from Victoria Island. The low pressure system brought arctic air south out of Canada into SW Washington.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS PQR wrote it up.
A low pressure system dropped south along the coast from Victoria Island. The low pressure system brought arctic air south out of Canada into SW Washington. This system brought heavy snow to the Willapa Hills, Cascade Foothills, and the Columbia Gorge. It also brought snow down to the Valley floor in the Vancouver Metro area.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Portland, OR wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 8, 11:20 AM PST, 3 hours 40 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Portland OR
1120 AM PST Fri Feb 8 2019
.SYNOPSIS...After a few flurries or sprinkles this morning, a
modified arctic cold front will spread more substantial precipitation
southward across the forecast area late this afternoon into tonight.
Mostly rain is expected ahead of this front for the low elevations,
but sharply colder air behind the front will change precipitation to
snow down to the lowest elevations by Saturday morning. Mainly snow
showers are expected to persist through Saturday before skies clear
for a very chilly night Saturday night. Cold weather looks to last
through next week, with several more chances for lowland snow
throughout the week.
&&
.MORNING UPDATE...After looking at the 12Z suite of fcst models,
there have been no major shifts in the forecast thinking for the
system that will be arriving later today and tonight. We are now
within the window of most of the high-res fcst models. Looking at the
12Z SPC HREF, the ensemble mean snowfall map matches up pretty with
our fcst right now. We remain concerned that there is potential for
some banded precipitation to occur along the occluding frontal
boundary to the northeast of the low as it drops south along the
coast overnight. There also appears to be some potential instability
above the front. This was the reason for upgrading the advisories to
warnings from the Portland/Vancouver metro area northward, where the
best chances for banded precipitation look to be at this time. Pyle
.SHORT TERM...Today through Sunday...After a long slumber, Winter
2018-19 finally appears to be coming to life across southwest
Washington and northwest Oregon. The unseasonably mild weather of
December and January is giving way to a prolonged period of
well-below normal temperatures, a cold snap that most model guidance
suggests will last all the way through next week.
Unlike many of our cold snaps in the Pac NW that come along with dry
offshore flow, plenty of moisture is in play over the coming days and
will bring several chances for lowland snow throughout the upcoming
week. The first such chance is developing across the forecast area
early this morning, as KRTX radar shows very light echoes gradually
developing in an area of deformation across western Oregon. Much of
this appears to be virga thus far across our forecast area, since we
have yet to see any reports of flurries or sprinkles north of
Roseburg and North Bend. As low pressure off the northern CA coast
moves southeastward, expect the deformation band to slowly move
southeast in response. Without any reports of flurries reaching the
ground and any precipitation expected to be extremely light this
morning, it appears we will escape this first system without much in
the way of impact.
The more significant player in our forecast can be seen on GOES-17
water vapor imagery, as a shortwave trough diving southward across
British Columbia. Surface low pressure is expected to develop quickly
just outside of the Strait of Juan de Fuca as the energy aloft
emerges from the BC coast. Models are now in reasonably good
agreement on the track and pace of the resulting low and attendant
modified arctic cold front as they press southward later today
through Saturday.
Overall, the forecast thinking has not changed a whole lot over the
past 24 hours, and models are providing higher confidence in a
widespread low elevation snow event...not only inland, but for the
coast as well. It still appears the cold front will press southward
from the Puget Sound and Olympic Peninsula, with snow levels briefly
rising to 700-1500 feet ahead of the front as it pushes south across
SW WA/NW OR this afternoon and evening. Snow levels are expected to
drop quickly back down to near sea level in continuing showers behind
the front tonight and Saturday...mainly late tonight and Saturday for
areas south of about Wilsonville.
However, the eastward progress of the front will be slower for two
reasons. First, the core of cold air aloft is expected to race
southward to the west of the low tonight through Saturday. Second,
the portion of the front over land will encounter some pretty cold
air that has been entrenched in the Columbia Basin the past few days.
This will likely cause the portion of the front over land to begin an
occlusion process as cold air east of the Cascades pushes back on the
front. The result will likely be a pivoting band of heavier snow near
or just east of the I-5 corridor, potentially affecting Portland,
Vancouver, and areas near the Columbia Gorge. Meanwhile stronger
orographics ahead of the front will initially produce heavier snow
for the Oregon Cascade foothills above 1000-1500 feet later today
through this evening.
Pinpointing the location of the band itself, much less the pivot
point that will have the greatest duration of heavier snow, is
notoriously difficult, especially in this CWA. Overall, we are
sticking with our general forecast of 1 to 4 inches for the lowlands,
including the coast. Thus Winter Weather Advisories will be issued
for this system across all our lowlands, primarily for tonight
through Saturday afternoon. However, if the pivoting band of heavier
snow suggested by most 00z and 06z models materializes, accumulations
in the affected area could be double that. The Columbia Gorge and
Hood River Valley will likely benefit from enhanced forcing due to
frontogenesis, and warning-level amounts of 5 to 9 inches are
expected there by the time snow tapers off Saturday evening. Another
wild card is the hit-and-miss nature of the snow showers expected to
affect the coast; heavier, persistent snow showers may produce a
quick inch or two of snow accumulation within a short period of time.
With 500 mb temps approaching -40 deg C in the cold core of the low,
a couple rumbles of thunder can't be ruled out along the coast and
over the coastal waters tonight and Saturday.
Most guidance continues to suggest a more prolonged period of steady
snow and deeper moisture for the Lane County Cascades, especially
above 1500 feet where precipitation should be mainly in the form of
snow even ahead of the front. Therefore we decided to go ahead with a
warning for the Lane County Cascades tonight through Saturday
evening. Snow amounts appear to fall shy of warning criteria for the
high Cascades north of the Lane/Linn County border.
Models are in general agreement that the main upper level shortwave
trough will shift east-southeastward of the region late Saturday
night into Sunday. Between colder and drier air spreading into the
region through the Columbia River Gorge and clearing skies,
temperatures should drop down well into the teens and twenties across
the region late Saturday night. As a result, any water or wet snow
lingering on roads Saturday afternoon will freeze quickly Saturday
evening and create patches of black ice.
With some lingering instabiltiy across the region on Sunday, a few
snow showers will be possible, but little in the way of notable
accumulations are expected aside from a dusting of snow here or
there. Temperatures should remain unseasonably cold with highs likely
only topping out in the mid to upper 30s Sunday afternoon across the
lowest elevations. Weagle/Neuman
.LONG TERM...No Changes. Previous discussion follows...Sunday night
through Thursday...Upper long wave trough will continue along the
Pacific Northwest coast through the period. There will be numerous
chances for additional significant snow all the way down to the
valley floor and to sea level Monday through Thursday. Temperatures
will remain well below normal through the week.
Sunday night and Monday could very well be a significant snow storm
for some of us...and perhaps most of us. A pretty strong short wave
impulse moves down the British Columbia coast. The models have
varied some in the location this impulse moves with the 12Z ECMWF
bringing it further south than the 12Z GFS. The GFS solution would
produce a classic low elevation (and I am talking down to sea level)
snow situation for far southwest Washington, the Northern Willamette
Valley, the Gorge and Hood river. There would be potential for heavy
snow especially in the western Gorge and Northern Willamette valley.
The GFS is underdoing cold air likely coming through the Gorge in
this pattern. The 18Z run of the has more westerly flow aloft and a
lot of dynamics over pretty much the same area as the 12Z run.
However the 12Z ECMWF solution would take more moisture further
south and reduce the threat of heavy snow in the north...although
there would still be some snow in the north with a deformation band
likely developing north of the system. The ECMWF would produce more
precipitation in the southern Willamette valley but the temperatures
might be marginal for large accumulations...or it could be cold
enough. The bottom line is to be prepared...Sunday night and Monday
have good potential for significant snow, but it really is too far
out for any kind of accurate forecast.
The Second event of next week looks like around Tuesday night or
Wednesday as an upper low drops out of the Gulf of Alaska, bound for
Oregon and Washington. And then is reinforced by another trough
dropping south on Thursday. This is much too far out to give any
confidence but also has potential to produce heavy low elevation
snow somewhere in the area. There could be freezing rain with this
system especially in the southern Willamette Valley as the cold air
should be in place (contrary to what the GFS shows at the surface).
This discussion normally only goes out 7 days but I think it is
important to point out that model ensembles show the upper long wave
trough will stick around through next Friday and Saturday with more
potential for low elevation snow or other nasty winter weather.
Schneider
&&
.AVIATION...A cold and moist storm system dropping south-
southeastward out of British Columbia will bring deteriorating
flight conditions this afternoon and overnight across the
forecast area. In the immediate short term, low clouds stuck in
the southern Willamette Valley should lift and break up this
afternoon. In addition, a weak upper level deformation band will
produce off and on flurries for KSLE and KEUG through early this
afternoon, which will likely produce some visibility restrictions
during that time. As we move into this evening, temperatures
should warm enough that precipitation should switch over to rain
or a rain/snow mix initially. However, colder temperatures will
result in a several hour period of moderate to heavy snow
developing for our northern taf sites between 06-12z Saturday.
Additional bands of snow and lowering snow levels should spread
into coastal taf sites and our southern Willamette Valley taf
sites towards 18z Saturday.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...A cold and moist storm system will drop
south-southeastward across the area between 00-18z Saturday. This
will result in deteriorating flight conditions as light rain
spreads into the area this evening and switches over to snow
overnight. There may be a several hour stretch of heavy snow with
accumulations of 1-4" most likely. Cold air spreading through the
Columbia River Gorge may result in temperatures dropping below
freezing between 12-18z Saturday. /Neuman
&&
.MARINE...Small craft winds are expected tonight and Saturday
for the outer waters as a low drops south over the waters. Small
craft winds possible for the inner waters as well on Saturday,
but depends on the actual track of the low. This low will impact
the waters through Sunday.
Seas should hover around 6-7 ft for the next day or so. A strong
low off of East Asia will generate a long period NW swell in our
waters Friday night through Sunday. Seas will build above 10
feet Saturday and Saturday night, and peak in the 12 to 14 ft
later Saturday. Seas may come back up to 10 ft with additional
low pressure systems passing through the waters early next week,
but it's a low confidence forecast at this point. /mh
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Winter Storm Warning from 6 PM this evening to 7 PM PST
Saturday for Central Columbia River Gorge-Upper Hood River
Valley.
Winter Storm Warning from 6 PM this evening to 1 PM PST
Saturday for Western Columbia River Gorge.
Winter Storm Warning from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM PST
Saturday for Coast Range of Northwest Oregon-Northern
Oregon Cascade Foothills.
Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 PM PST
Saturday for Northern Oregon Cascades.
Winter Storm Warning from 10 PM this evening to 10 PM PST
Saturday for Cascade Foothills in Lane County-Cascades in
Lane County.
Winter Storm Warning from 7 PM this evening to 4 PM PST
Saturday for Greater Portland Metro Area.
Winter Storm Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 PM PST
Saturday for Lower Columbia.
Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 8 PM PST
Saturday for Central Coast Range of Western Oregon.
Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 7 PM PST
Saturday for Central Oregon Coast-Central Willamette
Valley-South Willamette Valley.
Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 PM PST
Saturday for North Oregon Coast.
WA...Winter Storm Warning from 6 PM this evening to 7 PM PST
Saturday for Central Columbia River Gorge.
Winter Storm Warning from 6 PM this evening to 1 PM PST
Saturday for Western Columbia River Gorge.
Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 PM PST
Saturday for South Washington Cascades.
Winter Storm Warning from 7 PM this evening to 4 PM PST
Saturday for Greater Vancouver Area.
Winter Storm Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 PM PST
Saturday for I-5 Corridor in Cowlitz County-South
Washington Cascade Foothills-Willapa Hills.
Winter Weather Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 1 PM PST
Saturday for South Washington Coast.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory for winds until 4 PM PST Saturday for
Waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Cascade Head OR from 10
to 60 NM.
Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas from 4 AM Saturday to 4
AM PST Sunday for Coastal Waters from Cape Shoalwater WA
to Florence OR out 60 NM.
Small Craft Advisory for winds from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM
PST Saturday for Waters from Cascade Head to Florence OR
from 10 to 60 NM.
&&
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This discussion is for Northwest Oregon and Southwest Washington
from the Cascade crest to 60 nautical miles offshore. This area is
commonly referred to as the forecast area.6 heavy snow. Local standard time, as filed.
Most precipitation at river level fell as rain or a rain/snow mix. Elevations above 500 feet observed much more snow. A trained spotter in Longview, WA at 750 feet reported 7.5 inches of snow. Another trained spotter in Kalama reported 7.5 inches of snow at an elevation of 1350 feet.
The Willapa Hills saw anywhere from 6 to 12 inches of snow at elevations above 1000 feet.
The south Washington Cascade Foothills observed anywhere from 6 to 12 inches of snow. A weather station east of Chelatchie reported 8 inches of snow.
A range from a trace to 6 inches of snow was observed. Higher amounts were observed closer to the Columbia River Gorge.
Snow accumulations generally around 6 to 12 inches were observed. Amounts were generally higher closer to Bonneville, where 12 inches of snow was observed.
Generally snow totals of 4 to 8 inches were observed, with heaviest amounts closer to Cascade Locks and Bonneville.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Washington in 2019Every state in 2019This day in weather historyWarnings in Washington, February 2019
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 808878, 808879, 808880, 808881, 808866, 808873.