A frontal boundary stalled across southern and western Virginia during the day on July 15th. Near the frontal boundary a CAPE gradient set up over central and western Virginia.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS LWX wrote it up.
A frontal boundary stalled across southern and western Virginia during the day on July 15th. Near the frontal boundary a CAPE gradient set up over central and western Virginia. Upper level forcing was minimal to non-existent, but terrain circulations and the stalled boundary were enough for some scattered shower/thunderstorm development given the instability. A couple of these storms became severe.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Baltimore/Washington wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 15, 9:28 AM EST, 3 hours 55 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1028 AM EDT Mon Jul 15 2019 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build overhead this afternoon. A warm front is expected to lift north across the area Tuesday. The remnants of Barry will then affect the region Wednesday into Thursday. High pressure will return for Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A stalled front across south-central Virginia will be the focal zone for isolated showers and thunderstorms later this afternoon and early this evening. The portion of our region that could encounter one of these showers and storms extends from Grant and Pendleton Counties in West Virginia to Stafford and Spotsylvania Counties in Virginia and points to the south and west. Main threats would be a brief downpour and occasional lightning. As of 10 am, SBCAPE averages 1000 to 2000 J/kg over east-central West Virginia and west-central Virginia. There is also 20 to 25 kts of shear in these same zones. There could be an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm in parts of the central Shenandoah Valley and Virginia Piedmont late this afternoon as temperatures climb to near or just above 90 degrees. Dewpoint temperatures will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s. As the daytime convection weakens and dissipates while moving southeastward tonight, some cloud debris will be leftover and accompanied by cloud debris from the remnants of Barry. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... The remnants of Barry will move slowly northward Tuesday, then northeastward Tuesday night, finally eastward Wednesday and Wednesday night. Additional warmth and moisture will fill into the region as today's stalled front moves north as a warm front. Showers and thunderstorms will be more in coverage across our region Tuesday into Tuesday evening, but not too widespread. A few of the thunderstorms could be strong to severe as we will have moisture in place at the low levels, warmth or heat in place as well ahead of the remnants of Barry, and some weak energy preceding Barry's center. Not everyone will get a strong to severe thunderstorm. High temperatures will rise into the lower 90s pretty much areawide Tuesday with dew points rising back into the upper 60s and low 70s. Therefore, the heat index values will range from the mid 90s to around 100F. This return of moisture will also bring more widespread instability. Lows Tuesday night only drop into the 70s. The remnant trough that was once Barry will then move into the Ohio Valley on Wednesday, with plenty of heat and humidity out ahead of it. Expecting highs in the low to mid 90s with dew points in the low 70s. Heat index values by the afternoon likely reach into the 100- 105F and Heat Advisories may be necessary for portions of the region. Additionally, as the trough approaches, shower/thunderstorm chances will increase during the afternoon and evening, and likely linger overnight. Lows from 70-80F Wednesday night. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Heat and humidity will continue to increase late this week and into at least the first part of the upcoming weekend. The remnant trough leftover from Barry will likely exit to our east sometime Thursday, though guidance differs on the speed of its exit. A slower progression would mean chances for more widespread showers and thunderstorms lingering into Thursday afternoon and evening. 850-925 hPa temps are forecast to reach 25/30 C respectively Friday into Saturday, translating to surface high temperatures well into the 90s (perhaps near 100). This coupled with dew points near 70 during peak heating would result in heat index values of well over 100. There is some uncertainty as to just how hot it gets, as temperatures over 100 would require deeper mixing which usually lowers dew points a touch. But, a 100 degree air temperature and a 68 degree dew point result in the same heat index (107-108) as a 97 degree air temperature and a 73 degree surface dew point. Either way, heat advisories (100-105+) are likely Friday into Saturday as a result. Decided to not stray far from a base model blend (Superblend) this far out, resulting in highs in the mid to upper 90s and dew points in the upper 60s to lower 70s (this prints out heat index values of 100-110). A weak front may drop into the area during the second half of the weekend which would shave a couple degrees off the high temperature compared to previous days (but still into the 90s). && .AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR is expected this afternoon with some high cirrus preceding afternoon cumulus. Some scattered showers/thunderstorms possible this afternoon and evening at CHO, and some brief reductions and gusty winds are possible. Elsewhere, dry weather is forecast. Predominantly VFR will continue tonight through Wednesday night. Each afternoon and evening will see chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms, and therefore brief reductions to visibilities/ceilings and some localized gusty winds. Any locations that see rain during the day/evening may also see some patchy fog the following night. Shower/thunderstorm chances continue through at least Thursday. && .MARINE... Sub-SCA conditions are expected through Tuesday night. Light northeast winds this afternoon will turn light southerly tonight through Tuesday night. Some scattered showers/thunderstorms with localized gusty winds then become possible late Tuesday and Tuesday evening. Southerly winds will then increase Wednesday and Wednesday night and SCA conditions are possible. In addition, chances will increase for scattered showers and thunderstorms. Sub-SCA conditions likely Thu-Fri with thunderstorms possible. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...None. && SYNOPSIS...MM NEAR TERM...MM/KLW SHORT TERM...MM LONG TERM...DHOF AVIATION...KLW/DHOF MARINE...KLW/DHOF
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 519 AM EDT Mon Jul 15 2019 ANZ530>543-DCZ001-MDZ011-013-014-016>018-508-VAZ052>057-160930- Chesapeake Bay north of Pooles Island MD- Chesapeake Bay from Pooles Island to Sandy Point MD- Chesapeake Bay from Sandy Point to North Beach MD- Chesapeake Bay from North Beach to Drum Point MD- Chesapeake Bay from Drum Point MD to Smith Point VA- Tidal Potomac from Key Bridge to Indian Head MD- Tidal Potomac from Indian Head to Cobb Island MD- Tidal Potomac from Cobb Island MD to Smith Point VA- Patapsco River including Baltimore Harbor- Chester River to Queenstown MD-Eastern Bay- Choptank River to Cambridge MD and the Little Choptank River- Patuxent River to Broomes Island MD- Tangier Sound and the inland waters surrounding Bloodsworth Island-District of Columbia-Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges- Anne Arundel-Charles-St. Marys-Calvert-Southeast Harford- Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Fairfax- Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Stafford-Spotsylvania- King George- 519 AM EDT Mon Jul 15 2019 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Maryland portion of the Chesapeake Bay, Tidal Potomac River, and adjacent counties in central Maryland and northern Virginia as well as the District of Columbia. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday Potentially dangerous heat and humidity are possible later this week, likely peaking Wednesday and again Friday into Saturday. Increasing heat and tropical moisture may result in thunderstorms capable of producing a few damaging wind gusts or isolated instances of flooding Wednesday into Thursday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. MDZ003>006-501>507-VAZ025>031-036>040-050-051-501>508-WVZ050>053- 055-501>506-160930- Washington-Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore- Extreme Western Allegany-Central and Eastern Allegany- Northwest Montgomery-Central and Southeast Montgomery- Northwest Howard-Central and Southeast Howard-Northwest Harford- Augusta-Rockingham-Shenandoah-Frederick VA-Page-Warren-Clarke- Nelson-Albemarle-Greene-Madison-Rappahannock-Orange-Culpeper- Northern Fauquier-Southern Fauquier-Western Highland- Eastern Highland-Western Loudoun-Eastern Loudoun- Northern Virginia Blue Ridge-Central Virginia Blue Ridge- Hampshire-Morgan-Berkeley-Jefferson-Hardy-Western Grant- Eastern Grant-Western Mineral-Eastern Mineral-Western Pendleton- Eastern Pendleton- 519 AM EDT Mon Jul 15 2019 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern West Virginia, northern and central Virginia, and central and western Maryland with the exception of Garrett County. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday Potentially dangerous heat and humidity are possible later this week, likely peaking Wednesday and again Friday into Saturday. Increasing heat and tropical moisture may result in thunderstorms capable of producing a few damaging wind gusts or isolated instances of flooding Wednesday into Thursday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. DHOF
The Roanoke radar (KFCX), 158 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 18:20 UTC.
5 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A tree was blown down near the intersection of Middlebrook Road and Cedar Green Road.
A tree was blown down in the 300 block of Hall School Road.
Several tree limbs were blown down blocking VA-151 southwest of Wintergreen.
A tree was blown down on Ridge Lane near the intersection with US-29. Another tree was blown down blocking a portion of US-29 just north of Lovingston.
Two trees were blown down near the 17000 block of US-250 Highland Turnpike.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Virginia in 2019Every state in 2019This day in weather historyWarnings in Virginia, July 2019
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 844065, 844066, 844067, 844068, 844069.