A weak upper level disturbance moved across a warm and unstable air mass across NY and VT. This developed a broken line of showers and thunderstorms across northeast NY that moved into VT during the afternoon hours of June 26th.
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The episode as NWS BTV wrote it up.
A weak upper level disturbance moved across a warm and unstable air mass across NY and VT. This developed a broken line of showers and thunderstorms across northeast NY that moved into VT during the afternoon hours of June 26th. Scattered severe storms moved across the Champlain Valley of VT.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Burlington, VT wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 26, 2:26 PM EST, 1 hour 54 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Burlington VT 326 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Scattered showers and thunderstorms will weaken this evening across central and eastern Vermont with some patchy fog developing overnight. Temperatures will drop back into the mid 50s to mid 60s with some muggy conditions likely in the Champlain and Saint Lawrence Valleys. Thursday will be mostly sunny and dry to start with temperatures warming, but additional showers and thunderstorms are expected in the late afternoon and evening hours, especially near the international border. The threat for mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms will continue into the weekend with cooler temperatures. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 322 PM EDT Wednesday... Mesoscale update for late aftn/evening...water vapor shows weak embedded short wave entering the slv in the fast westerly flow aloft with ribbon of enhanced mid level moisture over northern NY. Laps indicates sfc based cape values of 1000 to 1500 j/kg with pockets of 2000 j/kg developing as temps climb into the 80s with dwpts near 60f. As short wave energy interacts with instability and trrn driven lift, expect areal coverage of convection to increase this aftn across the dacks. This activity will develop into a broken line of showers/storms with some embedded stronger convective elements likely, given the CAPE profiles. A couple svr storms are possible with localized wind gusts and 1 inch hail. Expecting storms across northern NY btwn 18z-20z, CPV 20-22z, central VT 21-23z, and eastern sections btwn 23-01z. The threat should be east of our cwa btwn by 02z this evening. Overnight...Subsidence develops behind short wave/convection with best 850 to 500mb rh fields east of our cwa, but some sfc based cape in the 400 to 800 j/kg range lingers, so cannot completely rule out an additional shower/storm aft 02z. Soundings show cap developing but best chance would be eastern/central VT, including the NEK. Otherwise, the areal coverage of fog/br is challenging, as some bl flow is present, especially cpv. Thinking climo areas and especially deeper valleys of VT and dacks look likely and have inserted into the forecast. Temps mainly mid 50s mtns valleys to mid 60s slv/cpv with some muggy conditions anticipated in urban areas of the cpv. Thursday/Thursday Night...Large scale pattern will continue to feature fast westerly flow aloft with short wave energy approaching our international border area around 00z. This along with increasing 850 to 500 mb moisture fields will once again produce the threat for showers and thunderstorms. Still some uncertainty on timing of short wave in the flow aloft and overall areal coverage/intensity of convection, as best dynamics look to be just north of our cwa. However, a pocket of sfc based cape of 1500 to 2000 j/kg develops near the border, while 0 to 6 km shear increases to 30 to 35 knots, before shifting south into southern New England. Several Convective Allowing Models indicate a broken line of storms developing btwn 20-22z north of the border and dropping toward our northern cwa by 00z, before exiting our eastern sections by 03z. Given this scenario have mention chc pops near the border with highest values along and north of a OGS to SLK to White River Junction line. A few stronger storms are possible, especially near the border where instability and shear are the best. Have noted progged 925mb are a degree or two higher with values btwn 20-22c, supporting highs near 80f mtns to mid 80s warmer valley. Additional patchy fog possible Thurs night with temps dropping back into the upper 50s to mid 60s after the convective ends. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 321 PM EDT Wednesday...Little overall change from the previous forecast idea for the end of the work week as models continue to agree on the general idea of a decaying MCS drifting over the area Friday afternoon/evening. Still some question though as to the exact track, how organized the system will be, and whether it will still produce precipitation given it originates over Montana this evening and tracks east along the international border for 2 days before getting into the forecast area. Given this, not ready to bite on high PoPs but will highlight a chance for thunder as there is some marginal elevated instability. In regards to temps, Friday should be the last hot day of the week with widespread 80s again, and lows Friday night mild in the 60s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 321 PM EDT Wednesday...A brief pattern change still appears to be in the cards for the weekend as an upper level low parked over James Bay at the end of the work week dives southward through Quebec on Saturday and across New England on Sunday. Some differences in timing and the exact track of the low persist between medium range guidance with the ECMWF taking the best shortwave energy directly across the BTV CWA while the GFS has taken on a more easterly track with energy more tied to the closed circulations aloft. Feel the GFS has a better handle a this point which highlights a continued high chance for showers and thunderstorms Saturday ahead of low with some modest instability around, but for Sunday the more easterly low track favors only a glancing blow of showers across eastern areas as compared to the more widespread ECMWF. Both days temps will be cooler than the previous days with highs back towards normal or slightly below in the 70s. As the upper low departs, brief ridging builds in for Monday morning, but the flow quickly turns back to the northwest and persists through mid-week. Overall the atmosphere is relatively dry, but weak impulses of shortwave energy could spark some isolated to scattered showers each afternoon. Temps will sit right around normal with highs in the mid 70s to low 80s, and lows in the mid 50s to low 60s. && .AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Through 18Z Thursday...Active period of weather with impacts anticipated for the taf sites, including thunderstorms this aftn and potential for fog overnight. Expecting scattered showers/storms to develop after 19z, with main impacts at SLK and points east btwn 20z-00z. These storms will contain frequent lightning, localized gusty winds, and brief heavy rainfall, which could produce a small 10 to 20 minute window of ifr vis/cigs in the heaviest convective elements. Localized wind gusts to 30 knots possible in and around storms. Tonight activity will quickly weaken by sunset with areas of patchy fog likely at slk/mpv and ifr/vlifr conditions. Also, some intervals of fog/br possible at rut/pbg and btv but confidence is too low to include in tafs at this time. Confidence will increase on fog potential after seeing what sites receive rainfall this aftn/evening. Otherwise, fog/br lifts by 12z Thursday with vfr prevailing and south winds at 5 to 10 knots. Outlook... Thursday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Friday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Friday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Saturday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Sunday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely SHRA. Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && SYNOPSIS...Taber NEAR TERM...Taber SHORT TERM...Lahiff LONG TERM...Lahiff AVIATION...Taber
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Burlington VT 340 AM EDT Wed Jun 26 2019 NYZ026>031-034-035-087-VTZ001>003-005-006-008-009-011-016>019-270900- Northern St. Lawrence-Northern Franklin-Eastern Clinton- Southeastern St. Lawrence-Southern Franklin-Western Clinton- Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Southwestern St. Lawrence-Grand Isle- Western Franklin-Orleans-Western Chittenden-Lamoille-Washington- Western Addison-Western Rutland-Eastern Franklin-Eastern Chittenden- Eastern Addison-Eastern Rutland- 340 AM EDT Wed Jun 26 2019 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern New York, central Vermont, northeast Vermont, northwest Vermont and southern Vermont. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected across the area this afternoon into early evening. The best concentration of storms will likely occur from the eastern slopes of the Adirondacks into the Champlain Valley and portions of north central Vermont in the 3 to 9 pm time frame. A few of the storms may contain strong gusty winds and small hail. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. VTZ004-007-010-012-270900- Essex-Caledonia-Orange-Windsor- 340 AM EDT Wed Jun 26 2019 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Vermont, northeast Vermont and southern Vermont. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. A few garden variety showers and thunderstorms will be possible late in the day into the early evening hours. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. 93
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Burlington VT 237 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2019 NYZ029-030-034-261915- Southeastern St. Lawrence-Southern Franklin-Western Essex- 237 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2019 ...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL FRANKLIN...EAST CENTRAL ST. LAWRENCE AND NORTHWESTERN ESSEX COUNTIES... At 236 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Carry Falls Reservoir, moving east at 25 mph. Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with this storm. Locations impacted include... Adirondack Regional Airport, Madawaska, Harrietstown, Lake Clear, Upper Saint Regis, St. Regis Mountain, Paul Smiths, Saranac Inn, Upper St. Regis and Gabriels. LAT...LON 4431 7472 4440 7478 4461 7424 4436 7413 TIME...MOT...LOC 1836Z 251DEG 23KT 4437 7469 Haynes
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Burlington VT
344 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2019
NYZ028-030-031-034-035-VTZ001-005-262045-
Eastern Clinton-Southern Franklin-Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Western
Clinton-Grand Isle-Western Chittenden-
344 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2019
...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CLINTON...EAST CENTRAL
FRANKLIN...NORTHERN ESSEX...WESTERN GRAND ISLE AND NORTHWESTERN
CHITTENDEN COUNTIES...
At 343 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from near Bryants Mill to 9 miles southwest of
Clayburg to 6 miles northeast of Saranac Lake. Movement was east at
35 mph.
Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with these storms.
Locations impacted include...
Plattsburgh International Airport, Plattsburgh, Saranac Lake, Peru,
Beekmantown, Schuyler Falls, Chazy, Saranac, Wilmington, Au Sable
Forks, Keeseville, Isle La Motte, Lyon Mountain, Clayburg, Merrill,
Port Kent, Jericho, Dannemora, Peasleeville and Alburgh.
These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.
If you are on or near Lake Champlain, get out of the water and move
indoors or inside a vehicle. Remember, lightning can strike out to
10 miles from the parent thunderstorm. If you can hear thunder, you
are close enough to be struck by lightning. Move to safe shelter
now! Do not be caught on the water in a thunderstorm.
LAT...LON 4446 7336 4430 7412 4452 7406 4473 7408
4497 7329
TIME...MOT...LOC 1943Z 250DEG 29KT 4468 7401 4454 7399 4440 7404
HaynesSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Burlington VT
439 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2019
NYZ034-035-VTZ005-009-262145-
Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Western Chittenden-Western Addison-
439 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2019
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EAST CENTRAL ESSEX...
NORTHWESTERN ADDISON AND SOUTHWESTERN CHITTENDEN COUNTIES...
At 439 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Keene Valley,
moving east at 25 mph.
Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.
Locations impacted include...
Vergennes, Essex, Moriah, Westport, Elizabethtown, Keene, Ferrisburg,
Charlotte, Keene Valley, Panton, Port Henry, Addison, Mount Marcy,
Kingsland Bay State Park, D A R State Park, Ferrisburgh, Mt. Philo
State Park, Waltham, Weybridge and North Elba.
This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.
LAT...LON 4403 7394 4426 7396 4434 7369 4435 7320
4404 7327
TIME...MOT...LOC 2039Z 269DEG 24KT 4418 7386
HaynesSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Burlington VT
444 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2019
NYZ028-031-VTZ001-002-005-016-262145-
Eastern Clinton-Western Clinton-Western Franklin-Grand Isle-Western
Chittenden-Eastern Franklin-
444 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2019
...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN CLINTON...
GRAND ISLE...NORTHWESTERN CHITTENDEN AND WESTERN FRANKLIN COUNTIES...
At 444 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from near Rouses Point to near Chazy to near
Plattsburgh International Airport. Movement was east at 30 mph.
Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with these storms.
Locations impacted include...
Plattsburgh, Plattsburgh International Airport, Beekmantown, Chazy,
Mooers, Enosburg Falls, Franklin, Champlain, Sheldon, Georgia, Grand
Isle, St. Albans Town, South Alburgh, Alburgh, Enosburg Falls
Village, Alburgh Dunes State Park, North Hero, Berkshire, Isle La
Motte and Lake Carmi State Park.
If you are on or near Lake Champlain, get out of the water and move
indoors or inside a vehicle. Remember, lightning can strike out to
10 miles from the parent thunderstorm. If you can hear thunder, you
are close enough to be struck by lightning. Move to safe shelter
now! Do not be caught on the water in a thunderstorm.
LAT...LON 4496 7275 4474 7288 4463 7360 4490 7357
4500 7360 4501 7275
TIME...MOT...LOC 2044Z 265DEG 27KT 4507 7337 4493 7337 4464 7351
HaynesThe Burlington radar (KCXX), 6 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 21:21 UTC.
2 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Tree downed by thunderstorm winds onto car.
Several large tree limbs downed in the Mallets Bay section of Colchester.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Vermont in 2019Every state in 2019This day in weather historyWarnings in Vermont, June 2019
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 832769, 832770.