High-based thunderstorms produced strong outflow winds as the storms collapsed across portions of eastern Utah.
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The episode as NWS GJT wrote it up.
High-based thunderstorms produced strong outflow winds as the storms collapsed across portions of eastern Utah.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Grand Junction, CO wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 6, 4:37 PM MST, 16 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 537 PM MDT Tue Aug 6 2019 .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday night) Issued at 345 PM MDT Tue Aug 6 2019 A healthy rex block upstream off the high latitude Pacific Coast and anomalous ridging North of Hudson Bay is forcing lower heights into the Canadian Prairies and much of the eastern CONUS. One implication of this pattern will be to force the Monsoon High southeast from the 4 Corners where it was residing on the 12Z H500 hand analysis map. The shift in this high and the arrival of lower heights off the SoCal coast will force another surge of monsoonal moisture northward into our Western CWA overnight. PWATs in the vicinity of the CO/UT border are still forecast to exceed 1 inch by tomorrow and linger around this mark through the end of the week. The challenge of the forecast for tomorrow focuses on the probability of slow moving...efficient rain producing storms. The typical orographic forcing for storms will be aided by distinct wave currently lifting through Arizona which is quite noticeable on satellite imagery. This wave will be rotating around the high into the 4 Corners region overnight with it's northern progression stalled tomorrow by the high drifting southward. This would suggest the southern CWA holding the best potential for storm development...a trend that has been kept in this forecast. Early morning storms look to survive on the nose of the wave and should be lifting into SE Utah by sunrise. Convection then expands through the morning and early afternoon with chances about most everywhere...but likely in the San Juans and Central Mountains. Long skinny CAPE profiles...light steering winds and a degree of difluence aloft suggests heavy rainfall rates and possible back- building storms tomorrow. Steep terrain and especially our burn scars will need to be monitored for heavy runoff potential. Temperatures should respond to the cloud cover and precipitation by lowering back several degrees tomorrow afternoon. Not real confident in placing the better chances for storms surviving the overnight hours into Thursday morning but do expect some isolated convection to survive. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 345 PM MDT Tue Aug 6 2019 The upstream rex block will be breaking down through the end of the week with the low crashing inland...forcing the SubTrop high yet farther southeast into deep Texas. Monsoonal moisture will continue to be pulled northward on the upstream side of the high but focused in a more narrow band as the drier air is entrained into the low off to our West. Orographic storms forming early Thursday afternoon could occur on about any ridgetop before shifting northward into adjacent valleys. The better moisture will be in the eastern third of the CWA in the moisture plume for a heavy rain threat...while stronger winds aloft in the western third could lead to some storms producing gusty outflow winds and possibly some hail. This same scenario shift a bit East for Friday with drier air infiltrating the western CWA and stronger winds moving into the East. The upstream low will continue to slowly plow eastward and flatten the pattern as a whole through the weekend which just pushes the drier air farther into our CWA and leaves mainly the central divide mountains to the San Juans in the better flow for afternoon storms. Jet stream support will also be be lingering aloft and this should keep some threat of isolated storminess going into early next week. Temperatures look to hover near seasonable. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) Issued at 535 PM MDT Tue Aug 6 2019 Scattered mountains/isolated valley convection will persist through 03Z this evening and end by 06Z. Gusty outflow winds to 40kts, small hail and heavy rainfall will accompany the stronger storms. Ceilings and visibility will drop in the vicinity of showers and storms, although the area expected to remain at or above ILS breakpoints and MVFR thresholds. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...None. UT...None. && SHORT TERM...15 LONG TERM...15 AVIATION...JDC
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 449 AM MDT Tue Aug 6 2019 COZ001>014-017>023-UTZ022>025-027>029-071200- Lower Yampa River Basin-Central Yampa River Basin- Roan and Tavaputs Plateaus-Elkhead and Park Mountains- Upper Yampa River Basin-Grand Valley-Debeque to Silt Corridor- Central Colorado River Basin-Grand and Battlement Mesas- Gore and Elk Mountains/Central Mountain Valleys- Central Gunnison and Uncompahgre River Basin- West Elk and Sawatch Mountains-Flat Tops- Upper Gunnison River Valley-Uncompahgre Plateau and Dallas Divide- Northwest San Juan Mountains-Southwest San Juan Mountains- Paradox Valley/Lower Dolores River- Four Corners/Upper Dolores River-Animas River Basin- San Juan River Basin-Southeast Utah-Eastern Uinta Mountains- Eastern Uinta Basin-Tavaputs Plateau-Arches/Grand Flat- La Sal and Abajo Mountains-Canyonlands/Natural Bridges- 449 AM MDT Tue Aug 6 2019 This hazardous weather outlook is for eastern Utah and western Colorado. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight A few showers and thunderstorms will fire over the higher terrain this afternoon. Coverage will be quite isolated however. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday Monsoonal moisture will increase Wednesday allowing more widespread showers and storms. The biggest concern will be some heavy rain under and near the stronger storms. More storms are expected Thursday and again Friday. The weekend looks to be dry as moisture shifts to the east. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed.
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
501 PM MDT TUE AUG 6 2019
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0446 PM TSTM WND GST 2 ESE CRAIG 40.50N 107.52W
08/06/2019 M45 MPH MOFFAT CO ASOS
ASOS STATION KCAG CRAIG-MOFFAT COUNTY
AIRPORT.
&&The Grand Junction radar (KGJX), 137 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 23:51 UTC.
1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
The automated weather station at the Canyonlands Field Airport in Moab measured a peak wind gust of 66 mph from outflow winds associated with a collapsing thunderstorm.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Utah in 2019Every state in 2019This day in weather historyWarnings in Utah, August 2019
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 836268.