Hot afternoon conditions coupled with the sea-breeze led to isolated afternoon storms across our southeastern-most counties, some of which produced gusty winds.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS FWD wrote it up.
Hot afternoon conditions coupled with the sea-breeze led to isolated afternoon storms across our southeastern-most counties, some of which produced gusty winds.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Fort Worth, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Sep 9, 1:46 PM CST, 1 hour 41 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 246 PM CDT Mon Sep 9 2019 .LONG TERM... /Wednesday through Saturday/ Above normal warmth is anticipated in the long term forecast period across the area. There will be low rain chances across Central Texas through the end of the week, with slightly better rain chances across the northern Big Country and into western parts of North Texas. The diffuse upper low across the upper Texas Coast will continue to churn north and westward towards Central Texas before it becomes quite diffuse late Wednesday into Thursday. This means that we will see a slight enhancement in our diurnal rain chances across Central Texas on Wednesday afternoon. Lift is still remains quite meager with this feature and at this time I am expecting a low coverage of showers/storms (only about 20-30 percent coverage). Daytime high temperatures on Wednesday will remain above normal for this time of year, with most locales in the mid 90s. With a height gradient at 925mb and plenty of afternoon sun ---after morning stratus decays---there should be the transfer of around 15-20 knots of flow down to the surface. This should help afternoon dewpoints mix out and fall into the 60s. This yields max apparent temperatures below Heat Advisory criteria. Regardless, it still remains hot and individuals should exercise their heat safety precautions. On Thursday, the upper level feature across the upper Texas Coast will meander to the south and west of Central Texas and likely play little role in our weather. I'll maintain a 20 PoP across our southern most areas (south of the I-14/HWY 79 corridor) in case there's any enhancement in sea-breeze activity. Temperatures will likely be within 1-2 degrees of the previous day and so I've continued with a mostly persistence forecast for Thursday. Above normal temperatures with highs in the low to mid 90s are anticipated. There could be some relief for some on Friday as a deep upper trough ejects out of the northern Rockies into the northern High Plains. Models have generally remained in decent agreement regarding this feature, although the GFS appears a bit stronger with the magnitude of jet level winds compared to some of the other guidance. Regardless, this appears largely inconsequential as just about all models have the attendant front stalling somewhere between the I-40 corridor and the Red River. The tail end of the 12 UTC NAM indicates a decent conveyor of low level theta-e air streaming northward into what will likely be a loosely organized line of showers and storms along this front. Low level wind fields from other long range guidance suggest a 20-25 knot low level jet should be sufficient to aid in some southward progression of this activity. As the low level flow veers and weakens through the day on Friday, it's probable that showers and storms will diminish quickly as it nears and slips to the south of the Red River. Exactly how fast this occurs is unknown. Given that model guidance has started to cluster on a solution which keeps the front closer to the I-40 corridor, I'll remain conservative on PoPs compared to blended guidance. One scenario in which this front could sag farther south than currently forecast--- and thus greater rain/storm chances along with cooler conditions---is the vigor of convection. Should a large cold pool develop, this front will be shunted southward and likely result in a substantial temperature/PoP bust for Friday. For now, PoPs are placed near and northwest of a Goldthwaite to Dallas to Sulphur Springs line. Wherever rain/clouds and north winds invade, temperatures will be lower. Again, exactly where this occurs is unknown at this time. Confidence in cooler conditions is highest along the western Red River Valley and across the Big Country and I'll advertise highs in the upper 80s to near 90 degrees. Elsewhere, hot conditions will persist with readings in the mid to upper 90s. Next weekend looks rain/storm free with temperatures slowly moderating. The zonal flow aloft gives us some hope that it won't be a scorcher, but it is possible that the ridge rebuilds stronger than currently forecast and if the ECMWF is to verify, we could see temperatures return to the century mark. Bain && .SHORT TERM... /Issued 1253 PM CDT Mon Sep 9 2019/ /Today Through Tuesday/ A slow-moving, mid level impulse over Deep South Texas will move very little through tonight, as it remains cut off from better steering currents further north. To the east and northeast of this feature, precipitable water values in excess of 1.5 inches is lifting north across eastern Central Texas. Isolated-scattered diurnally-driven convection can be seen along a northward moving seabreeze boundary and expect this to continue to progress northward into Central Texas through sunset this evening. This is already being noted on regional GOES satellite imagery and regional radars. Once daytime heating, this activity should quickly dissipate by no later than mid evening along especially the I-45 corridor. A 25-30 knot low level flow just above the surface should help to continue to draw rich gulf moisture northward overnight with developing stratus arriving across the area through sunrise Tuesday. Breezy, humid, and warm conditions will continue tonight. The South Texas impulse will begin a migration northward toward the Texas Hill Country on Tuesday, while also shearing and weakening as it encounters increasing southwesterly flow aloft in advance of a broad longwave mid level trough over the Western CONUS. In addition, another seabreeze influence looks to be in play and the combination of diurnal heating and subtle forcing from these features will likely lead to another round of isolated-scattered showers and storms across Central Texas. The western periphery of the Southeast CONUS mid level ridge and it's associated subsidence should keep North Texas rain-free with above normal temperatures continuing with highs well into the 90s for most locales (normal are around 90 degrees for this time of year). Occasionally gusty south winds between 10-15 mph are also expected to continue. 05/ && .AVIATION... /Issued 1253 PM CDT Mon Sep 9 2019/ /18z TAFs/ Concerns and challenges: Low -SHRA/TS coverage near Waco through 00z Tuesday, then MVFR cigs at all airports between 12z-16z Tuesday. For the first 6-9 hours of the TAFs -- a mid level impulse moving inland across S TX will have only a slow drift NNW through Tuesday morning. Diurnal heating, increasing moisture moving northward into Central TX, and lift associated with a seabreeze boundary coming off the Upper TX Coast will allow for a VCSH mention at Waco Regional Airport through 00z-01z Tuesday or until daytime heating is lost. This activity may also result in impacts for south and east bound traffic, and along the Cedar Creek cornerpost for D10 airspace. S flow at 925mb will increase to near 25 knots northeast of the S TX mid level impulse late tonight and Tuesday morning. This will help draw rich Gulf moisture within the boundary layer northward rather quickly up across the area by 12z. MVFR cigs BLO FL020 should arrive and there could even be patchy IFR cigs near and east of Waco through 15z. For now, confidence is too low for any mention in the Waco TAF this far out and will need to be monitored in future TAFs through tonight. Otherwise, a breakout to VFR is expected by 16z-17z Tuesday with possible VCSH/VCTS potential around Waco Regional Airport once again after 18z. S flow of 10-15 knots will prevail at all airports with occasional gusts to 20 knots expected by late morning Tuesday and beyond. 05/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 76 95 76 95 76 / 10 5 0 5 0 Waco 75 95 74 96 74 / 20 20 20 10 0 Paris 72 93 72 91 73 / 0 5 0 5 0 Denton 75 94 74 94 75 / 10 5 0 5 0 McKinney 75 94 74 94 75 / 10 5 0 5 0 Dallas 77 96 77 95 77 / 20 10 0 5 0 Terrell 75 95 74 96 75 / 10 10 0 5 0 Corsicana 74 94 73 93 73 / 20 20 10 10 0 Temple 75 94 73 94 72 / 10 30 30 20 5 Mineral Wells 72 93 71 93 71 / 0 5 5 5 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && 24/05
Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 200 PM CDT Mon Sep 9 2019 TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-101200- Montague-Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Young-Jack-Wise-Denton-Collin- Hunt-Delta-Hopkins-Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker-Tarrant-Dallas- Rockwall-Kaufman-Van Zandt-Rains-Eastland-Erath-Hood-Somervell- Johnson-Ellis-Henderson-Comanche-Mills-Hamilton-Bosque-Hill-Navarro- Freestone-Anderson-Lampasas-Coryell-Bell-McLennan-Falls-Limestone- Leon-Milam-Robertson- 200 PM CDT Mon Sep 9 2019 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for North and Central Texas. .DAY ONE...Through Tonight. There is a slight chance for thunderstorms across Central Texas through this evening. Lightning will be the primary hazard, though the strongest thunderstorms may contain gusty winds and brief heavy rain. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. There is a low chance of afternoon and early evening thunderstorms across Central Texas Tuesday through Thursday. Low thunderstorm chances will shift toward areas mainly north of Interstate 20 Thursday night through Friday. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. However, a few storms will be capable of gusty downburst winds and brief heavy rainfall will be possible. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. Bain
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
423 PM CDT Mon Sep 9 2019
TXZ175-092200-
Robertson TX-
423 PM CDT Mon Sep 9 2019
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN ROBERTSON COUNTY
UNTIL 500 PM CDT...
At 423 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Hearne, moving north at 25 mph.
Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with this storm.
Locations impacted include...
Hearne and Calvert.
LAT...LON 3078 9663 3078 9665 3082 9664 3087 9670
3091 9669 3090 9672 3093 9676 3097 9677
3100 9675 3100 9677 3103 9678 3105 9677
3106 9679 3106 9682 3108 9681 3110 9683
3117 9655 3081 9647 3077 9662
TIME...MOT...LOC 2123Z 162DEG 23KT 3086 9660
92The Ft Hood radar (KGRK), 75 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 21:28 UTC.
1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A wind gust of 59 MPH was measured by the Automated Weather Observation System at Hearne Municipal Airport.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2019Every state in 2019This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, September 2019
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 856187.