An upper level low interacted with a very moist boundary layer to initiate convection during the afternoon. One thunderstorm produced damaging wind gusts.
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The episode as NWS EWX wrote it up.
An upper level low interacted with a very moist boundary layer to initiate convection during the afternoon. One thunderstorm produced damaging wind gusts.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Sep 10, 1:58 PM CST, 32 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 258 PM CDT Tue Sep 10 2019 .SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday Night)... The combination of daytime heating, precipitable water values in the 1.8 to 2 inch range, and an upper level low opening up over South Texas has resulted in scattered thunderstorm development for areas east of Interstate 35 this afternoon. High resolution guidance shows this activity lingering into the evening hours with a secondary area of development closer to the Rio Grande spreading eastward during the evening and overnight hours as a vorticity maxima over West Texas phases with the upper low. Model guidance was too quick to clear out cloud cover along the Rio Grande today and this has resulted in delayed convective development, but visible satellite trends are beginning to show breaks in the clouds and expect these higher resolution solutions to verify... but likely a few hours slower than indicated. Save for deeper moisture in place, the overall atmospheric profile has changed little and any thunderstorm this afternoon will be capable of gusty downburst winds given the dry sub-cloud layer. This increased moisture will also result in the brief heavy rain threat continuing into the evening hours. With the upper level disturbance near the region, SPC Mesoanalysis shows a minimum in the mean layer flow across areas west of a Kerrville/Hondo/Pearsall line and will need to watch for some slower storm motions in these areas. These areas remain very dry and not anticipating any kind of significant flood threat, but will have to watch for some minor rises on area creeks and streams in this area given these slow storm motions, higher moisture values, and deterministic guidance indicating some isolated 2 to 4 inch rain amounts possible. Rain chances are expected to linger into the overnight hours with forcing from the upper level disturbance near the region. There is also the potential for some patchy fog development in low-lying or rural areas that see rainfall through this evening, but have not included mention in the gridded forecast due to expected localized coverage. Overnight lows in the low to mid 70s will again rise into the mid 80s in the Hill Country to upper 90s along and east of the Interstate 35 corridor during the day Wednesday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will increase across the region Wednesday afternoon and evening as the upper disturbance persists overhead with stronger storms again capable of gusty winds and brief heavy rain. Loss of heating will allow for rain chances to taper off Wednesday night as the upper disturbance begins to shear out with lows in the low to mid 70s. && .LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)... Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible again on Thursday as at least weak forcing from the disturbance remains near the region with highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s. Broad, flat ridging begins to spread into the region from the east on Friday, allowing for warmer and drier conditions settle in across the region. A surge of tropical moisture associated with a tropical wave moving into the northern Gulf of Mexico will result in low rain chances spreading into the eastern half of the region by Monday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 75 96 75 94 73 / 20 40 20 20 - Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 74 94 74 93 72 / 20 40 20 20 - New Braunfels Muni Airport 74 94 74 92 72 / 20 40 20 20 - Burnet Muni Airport 72 93 72 92 70 / 20 30 20 10 - Del Rio Intl Airport 75 94 74 94 73 / 50 40 20 20 20 Georgetown Muni Airport 73 95 73 94 72 / 20 30 20 10 - Hondo Muni Airport 74 95 74 95 72 / 30 40 30 20 10 San Marcos Muni Airport 73 94 73 94 71 / 20 40 20 20 - La Grange - Fayette Regional 75 97 74 96 72 / 20 50 20 20 - San Antonio Intl Airport 76 94 76 93 75 / 20 40 30 20 - Stinson Muni Airport 76 95 76 92 75 / 20 40 20 20 - && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && Aviation...05 Short-Term/Long-Term...Huffman Public Service/Data Collection...EWilliams
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 242 PM CDT Tue Sep 10 2019 TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-111945- Llano-Burnet-Williamson-Val Verde-Edwards-Real-Kerr-Bandera- Gillespie-Kendall-Blanco-Hays-Travis-Bastrop-Lee-Kinney-Uvalde- Medina-Bexar-Comal-Guadalupe-Caldwell-Fayette-Maverick-Zavala- Frio-Atascosa-Wilson-Karnes-Gonzales-De Witt-Lavaca-Dimmit- 242 PM CDT Tue Sep 10 2019 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for South-Central Texas.. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon And Tonight. Isolated to scattered showers and storms are forecast across the area today. A few storms could produce gusty winds in addition to cloud to ground lightning. Locally heavy rainfall is possible along a Kerrville, Hondo, to Pearsall line. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. Isolated to scattered showers and storms are forecast across the area Wednesday. A few storms could produce gusty winds in addition to cloud to ground lightning. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not anticipated.
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
326 PM CDT Tue Sep 10 2019
TXZ189>191-206-208-223-102115-
Comal TX-Blanco TX-Caldwell TX-Gonzales TX-Hays TX-Kendall TX-
326 PM CDT Tue Sep 10 2019
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CALDWELL...HAYS...SOUTH CENTRAL
BLANCO...NORTH CENTRAL GONZALES...EAST CENTRAL KENDALL AND
NORTHEASTERN COMAL COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM CDT...
At 326 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Twin Sisters to near Kyle to near Luling.
Movement was northeast at 15 mph.
Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these storms.
Locations impacted include...
San Marcos, Kyle, Buda, Lockhart, Luling, Dripping Springs,
Wimberley, Canyon Lake, Woodcreek, Martindale, Uhland, Mustang Ridge,
Niederwald, Payton, Fischer, Twin Sisters, Driftwood, Fentress,
Palmeto State Park and Spring Branch.
LAT...LON 2958 9756 2964 9764 2966 9764 2966 9767
2976 9778 2976 9780 2979 9782 2978 9783
2983 9784 2985 9786 2984 9790 2987 9795
2992 9852 3020 9833 3017 9791 3002 9771
3007 9765 2977 9730
TIME...MOT...LOC 2026Z 220DEG 13KT 2997 9839 2993 9790 2969 9758
HAMPSHIREThe Austin/San Antonio radar (KEWX), 36 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 20:29 UTC.
1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A thunderstorm produced wind gusts estimated at 70 mph that blew over fences and a shed and took parts of metal roof panels off a house.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2019Every state in 2019This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, September 2019
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 851898.