A weak frontal boundary remained in the area while an upper level disturbance moved across the region. Heavy rain produced an isolated area of flash flooding in interior Southeast Texas.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS LCH wrote it up.
A weak frontal boundary remained in the area while an upper level disturbance moved across the region. Heavy rain produced an isolated area of flash flooding in interior Southeast Texas.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Lake Charles, LA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Oct 14, 9:10 AM CST, 1 hour 20 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1010 AM CDT Mon Oct 14 2019 .DISCUSSION... Wx map shows warm front roughly along the coast/coastal parishes & counties of Southern Louisiana and Southeast Texas. Showers and thunderstorms are becoming more distinct south of the front across the coastal waters, with some weak rotation noted. Although not in a risk for severe thunderstorms, will not rule out one of these storms at least meeting special marine criteria this morning. Further inland, radar showing the large isentropic lift or "frontal over-running" area of showers across Central Louisiana & Inland Southeast Texas. For the forecast, updated the chances of precipitation this morning and afternoon, mainly for areal coverage and location. Hard to pinpoint which areas will receive the heaviest rainfall ahead and just behind a lifting warm front. However, the warm front will continue to lift northward this afternoon and evening, gradually shifting the focus of heavy rainfall further northward into Central and North Louisiana, as well as Northeast Texas later this evening. Remainder of the forcast on track. DML && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 723 AM CDT Mon Oct 14 2019/ DISCUSSION... For the 10/14/19 1200 UTC TAF package. AVIATION... VFR is generally prevailing at the terminals this morning, with radar depicting stratiform rains mainly along/north of HWY 190 and isolated/scattered convective cells lifting north toward coastal SE TX/SW LA. Used a blend of current radar/Ob trends and latest guidance to compose the forecast at each terminal, with at best middle of the road confidence. VFR is expected to prevail at the I-10 terminals away from convection, with a TEMPO carried at each that represents the best consensus for when direct impacts are most likely to occur. Greater risk for longer duration rains and MVFR CIGS is present at KAEX. Lead into this with a mid to late morning TEMPO, then prevailing through the afternoon and into early evening. Rains lift out to the NE by mid evening or so, but CIGS progged to remain and eventually lower into IFR during the overnight period. Lower CIGs and/or VSBYs are possible at the I-10 terminals as well tonight, and nudged the forecast in that direction without explicitly lowering the flight category. 13 PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 508 AM CDT Mon Oct 14 2019/ SYNOPSIS... Latest UA analysis and WV imagery shows considerable moisture streaming over the region from an area of lower pres near Baja CA. At the sfc, a nearly stationary frontal boundary extends acrs the NW Gulf from near Galveston southeastward approximately 80-100 NM south of the SW LA coast. Temperatures acrs the area are about 10 to 15 degrees warmer than this time last night, but still relatively cooler than temperatures south of the front. The combination of the moist zonal flow aloft and isentropic lift north of the front is resulting in widespread mid and high clouds acrs the region, as well as some patchy light-modt rain per KLCH 88D. Further offshore, closer to the front, isolated showers/tstms are developing and expected to increase in coverage through the morning. 24 DISCUSSION... The offshore boundary will lift north today as a warm front. Deeper moisture south and southwest of the area is already spreading over the region, with LAPS Precip Water analysis showing values abv 2 inches. An increase in showers and tstms can be expected through the day, and some of this activity will be capable of producing heavy rainfall as abv normal PW values continue to overspread the region. Temperatures will be warmer as well, with highs into the middle 70s north to lower 80s south. Overnight lows tonight will be much warmer as the Gulf airmass continues to envelope the area, with temperatures not expected to fall beyond the middle 60s acrs cntl LA, while lower to middle 70s are expected along and south of I-10. Tonight into Tuesday, the main axis of moisture and focus for precipitation will be shifted northward. While the best potential is expected to be north of the CWA, kept at least chc to likely PoPs in place during the day Tuesday as weak disturbances translate east within zonal flow aloft. By late Tuesday, a northern stream trough will dig over the north cntl CONUS, helping to push a cold front southward into the region. This front will move through the area Tuesday night into early Wednesday. A band of showers/tstms will develop along and ahead of the front late Tuesday, and continue through early Wednesday with some lingering showers possible in the wake of the front Wednesday morning. Drier air will filter southward in the wake of the front, along with cooler temperatures. Dry and cool conditions will persist Thursday and Friday, with return flow developing by the weekend as sfc high pres slides east. Rain chcs will increase Saturday and Sunday as deeper moisture spreads back north over the region ahead of the next cold front which should move through early next week. 24 MARINE... Lt to modt onshore flow will develop through the morning as a warm front lifts northward out of the Gulf. The front will also bring an increasing chc of showers and tstms through the day. Onshore flow and elevated precipitation chances will continue until passage of a cold front early Wednesday. Modt offshore flow will develop in the wake of the front, possibly requiring exercise caution flags late Wednesday into Wednesday night. Offshore flow will diminish Thursday, with winds veering around to the southeast by the weekend. 24 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 74 65 83 62 / 70 40 80 80 LCH 83 73 87 70 / 70 20 50 80 LFT 83 71 88 70 / 70 20 60 80 BPT 82 74 86 71 / 60 20 50 80 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && PUBLIC...08
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 532 AM CDT Mon Oct 14 2019 LAZ027>033-041>045-052>055-073-074-TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262- 151045- Vernon-Rapides-Avoyelles-Beauregard-Allen-Evangeline-St. Landry- Calcasieu-Jefferson Davis-Acadia-Lafayette-Upper St. Martin- Vermilion-Iberia-St. Mary-Lower St. Martin-West Cameron- East Cameron-Tyler-Hardin-Jefferson-Orange-Northern Jasper- Northern Newton-Southern Jasper-Southern Newton- 532 AM CDT Mon Oct 14 2019 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Louisiana, south central Louisiana, southwest Louisiana, west central Louisiana, and southeast Texas. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Showers and thunderstorms will develop and increase in coverage through the day. Some storms will be capable of producing heavy rainfall at times, and a marginal risk for excessive rainfall exists across much of southwest and central Louisiana and southeast Texas. Rainfall amounts will average around an inch, with locally higher amounts possible. Additional hazards with any thunderstorms include occasional cloud to ground lightning and gusty winds. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms can be expected Tuesday into Tuesday night as a cold front moves into the region. Storms will be capable of producing heavy rainfall, along with gusty winds and occasional cloud to ground lightning. Portions of the area north of the I-10 corridor are in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall, with rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour possible. A few light showers will linger Wednesday morning, with dry weather expected Thursday and Friday. Rain chances will increase again Saturday and continue through the weekend. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected. GMZ430-432-435-450-452-455-470-472-475-151045- Sabine Lake-Calcasieu Lake-Vermilion Bay- Coastal waters from Cameron LA to High Island TX out 20 NM- Coastal waters from Intracoastal City to Cameron LA out 20 NM- Coastal waters from Lower Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City LA out 20 NM- Waters from Cameron LA to High Island TX from 20 to 60 NM- Waters from Intracoastal City to Cameron LA from 20 to 60 NM- Waters from Lower Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City LA from 20 to 60 NM- 532 AM CDT Mon Oct 14 2019 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Gulf of Mexico. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms can be expected this morning, with convection decreasing in coverage through the afternoon as a warm front moves inland across southwest Louisiana and southeast Texas. Thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy rainfall, along with gusty winds and occasional cloud to water lightning. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday Showers and thunderstorms will increase Tuesday night into Wednesday morning as a cold front moves through the area. Thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy rainfall, along with gusty winds and occasional cloud to water lightning. Offshore flow will strengthen in the wake of the front, with exercise caution or marginal advisory conditions expected late Wednesday and Wednesday night. A chance of showers or isolated thunderstorms will continue over the coastal waters through late in the week and into the weekend. The risk of severe weather is low at this time, but a few storms could produce occasional cloud to water lightning and gusty winds. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected. 24
The Lake Charles radar (KLCH), 149 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 16:31 UTC.
1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
The Tyler County dispatch reported water covering some roadways from Chester to Colmesneil. 5.28 inches of rain was recorded during the event at Colmesneil.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2019Every state in 2019This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, October 2019
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-10-01. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 862075.