Drought stress on ranchlands in Starr, Jim Hogg and Zapata County was maintained into the first few days of November with no rainfall and mild to warm days with moderate to low relative humidity. Severe (D2) Drought areal coverage remained intact, but a pocket of Extreme (D3) conditions arrived on the 5th across portions of each county.
Every event with a place to put it; 3 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS BRO wrote it up.
Drought stress on ranchlands in Starr, Jim Hogg and Zapata County was maintained into the first few days of November with no rainfall and mild to warm days with moderate to low relative humidity. Severe (D2) Drought areal coverage remained intact, but a pocket of Extreme (D3) conditions arrived on the 5th across portions of each county.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Brownsville, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Oct 31, 5:33 PM CST, 6 hours 27 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
633 PM CDT Thu Oct 31 2019
...00z Aviation Update...
.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR conditions expected through this TAF cycle. There
may be quite a few high clouds above the terminals in the lower
Valley or along the coast, but cigs should stay above 10kft.
Winds at the surface will continue to steadily decrease overnight.
On Friday winds will be less than 10 knots and may become
variable toward the end of this TAF cycle.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 250 PM CDT Thu Oct 31 2019/
SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night):It looks like a chilly
night for the trick-o-treaters going out tonight for Halloween as
surface high pressure settles across the southern and eastern half
of the state tonight. Satellite images and surface observations
indicate mostly high clouds lingering across the CWA this
afternoon and this should keep temperatures from not falling too
fast tonight. Lows will be in the middle to upper 40s across the
Rio Grande Valley and in the lower to middle 40s across the
northern ranchlands...but not as cold as the record temperatures
experienced in 1993. The surface ridge across Texas will move
eastward Friday but light northeast winds are expected to prevail
across the lower Texas coast Fri afternoon. Some clouds will
linger across the coastal sections as well and temperatures will
climb into the lower 70s Fri afternoon. Light easterly winds will
prevail across the RGV Fri night before a surge of reinforcing
high pressure approaches the northern Ranchlands Sat morning.
Temperatures will moderate Fri night and be not as cold as tonight
but will continue to be below normal through the short term.
LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday):12Z Model suite is in fair
agreement and show good consistency in the overall synoptic
pattern across North American and the CONUS. Deep South Texas will
be on the northern fringe of the Subtropical ridge for much of
the long term which is displaced south over Mexico and the Gulf of
Mexico as a broad longwave trough extends over much of NA/CONUS.
This pattern will feature a reinforcing high pressure spreading over
Texas Saturday maintaining a below normal temperatures regime and
relative dry conditions this weekend. The airmass is not expected
to be as cool as today's "record cold" airmass but lower dew points
and a light to moderate northerly flow will maintain temperatures 5
to 10 degrees below normal. GFS is persistent in showing a chance of
showers along and just inland of the Lower TX coast Saturday morning
(EC is dry with showers over Tamaulipas waters) but confidence is
low on anything moving to far inland with the high pressure
indicated to build south Friday night into Saturday morning which
will likely push any convection south of the region. A more
noticeable warming trend commences Monday as the surface ridge
shifts off to the east and winds veer southeast. A shortwave trough
indicated by both the EC/GFS within the southern stream of the broad
trough over the CONUS is shown to track into the Desert Southwest or
NW Mexico next Tuesday through Thursday before approaching or moving
into Texas Friday. There are differences in track and timing of the
eastward progression of this feature, GFS faster/EC slower, but in
any case both deterministic models show an increase in rain chances
as moisture content over the CWA increases and a cold front
approaches in advance of this mid-level feature.
MARINE:(Tonight through Friday night): Seas were near 11 feet with
north winds near 21 knots with gusts to near 31 knots at buoy020
early this afternoon. Moderate to strong north to northeast winds
will prevail across the coastal waters this evening before beginning
to diminish late tonight as surface high pressure settles across the
lower Texas coast by Fri morning. Winds will diminish across the
Laguna Madre early this evening so have adjusted SCA for winds
through 6 pm instead of 10 pm. Even though winds will diminish
offshore tonight...seas will remain high offshore and have already
extended SCA offshore through tonight into early Fri morning. Light
northeast winds will prevail across the lower Texas coast Friday as
the pressure gradient continues to weaken across the western Gulf of
Mexico. Winds will briefly veer to the east Fri night before a
reinforcing surge of high pressure approaches the coastal waters Sat
morning.
(Saturday through Tuesday):A reinforcing surge of high
pressure is set for Saturday bumping north to northeast winds back
up into the moderate to strong range. Small Craft advisories may be
necessary Saturday especially for the Gulf waters as winds may
exceed 20 knots and seas approach 7 feet. The surface high pressure
ridge tracks east and winds diminish and slowly turn northeast to
east Sunday before turning back to a light to moderate southeast
flow early next week.
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Friday for GMZ150-155-170-
175.
&&
This product is also available on the web at:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV
Aviation Update...Frye-55Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 620 PM CDT Thu Oct 31 2019 TXZ248>257-351-353-012330- Zapata-Jim Hogg-Brooks-Inland Kenedy-Starr-Southern Hidalgo- Inland Willacy-Inland Cameron-Coastal Willacy-Coastal Cameron- Coastal Kenedy-Northern Hidalgo- 620 PM CDT Thu Oct 31 2019 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Deep South Texas. .DAY ONE...Tonight There is a high risk of rip currents today at area beaches. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday Minor coastal flooding possible around high tide over the next several days. An elevated risk of rip currents will be possible through at least Sunday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed. GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175-012330- Laguna Madre from the Port of Brownsville to the Arroyo Colorado- Laguna Madre from the Arroyo Colorado To 5 NM north of Port Mansfield TX- Laguna Madre from 5 nm north of Port Mansfield to Baffin Bay TX- Coastal waters from Port Mansfield to the Rio Grande out 20 nm- Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Mansfield out 20 nm- Waters from Port Mansfield to the Rio Grande extending from 20 to 60 nm- Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Mansfield extending from 20 to 60 nm- 620 PM CDT Thu Oct 31 2019 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of The Gulf of Mexico and The Laguna Madre. .DAY ONE...Tonight A Small Craft Advisory is also in effect across the lower Texas coastal Gulf waters until 7 am Friday. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday A Small Craft Advisory is also in effect across the lower Texas coastal Gulf waters until 7 am Friday. Additional small craft advisories may be needed on Saturday, mainly across the Lower Texas coastal Gulf waters. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed. Frye
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
3 drought. Local standard time, as filed.
Severe (D2) Drought conditions prevailed across all but the eastern sliver of Jim Hogg County through November 4th.
Severe (D2) Drought conditions prevailed across northern Starr County through November 4th.
Severe (D2) Drought conditions prevailed across all but extreme southwest Zapata County through November 4th.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2019Every state in 2019This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, November 2019
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 866913, 866914, 866915.