Tornadoes and Flash Flood in Texas, May 20 to 21, 2019

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
611 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

We continue to monitor the convection across the Permian Basin
that is slowly working its way east towards West Central Texas.
Latest hi-res models shift the convection east into the area, but
it may be the early morning hours before the convection reaches
many of the terminal location. Will use that timing for now, and
see if the convection gets a bigger push from convective outflows.
Otherwise, gusty south and southeast winds this evening will
continue, shifting to the west as the pacific front moves through
the area on Tuesday morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 327 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight)

..Particularly Dangerous Situation...

All model indicators point to a particularly dangerous situation
developing, across much of West Central Texas, this afternoon and
tonight. With model forecast CAPEs in 5000 J/kg range and bulk
shear in range of 45 to 55 knots, conditions are most favorable
for very large hail, damaging winds, and strong tornadoes. The
Storm Prediction Center continues to highlight much of West
Central Texas in a High or Enhanced risk area. The best indication
for timing is now through late tonight. Locations along and north
of a San Angelo to Brownwood are most at risk this evening. After
midnight, the severe thunderstorms threat will slowly diminish, as
the upper trough moves over Texas.

(Tuesday)

..Thunderstorms Ending...

As the Upper trough moves east, the potential for severe
thunderstorms will shift east of our area. By noon Tuesday, all
shower and thunderstorm activity will be east of West Central
Texas.

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday Night through Monday)

..Dry with Rain Chances Returning...

With lots of tasks going on this afternoon, we did not make
significant changes to the long term forecast. After a day or two
of dry weather, another upper low to our west will move into a
position near the Four Corners region of CONUS. This position will
produce southwest flow aloft over Texas. Minor disturbances
embedded in the flow aloft may initiate mainly afternoon and
evening thunderstorms, beginning Wednesday night and continuing
through Friday night. Currently, this holiday weekend looks dry.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 	 61  78  59  89 /  80  20   0  10
San Angelo 	 60  82  59  91 /  60  10   0  10
Junction 	 65  85  63  91 /  40  20   0   0
Brownwood 	 64  80  62  87 /  70  40   0   0
Sweetwater 	 59  76  59  88 /  80   0   0  10
Ozona      	 59  82  61  88 /  50   0   0  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Tuesday for Brown-Callahan-Coke-
Coleman-Concho-Crockett-Fisher-Haskell-Irion-Jones-Kimble-Mason-
McCulloch-Menard-Nolan-Runnels-San Saba-Schleicher-Shackelford-
Sterling-Sutton-Taylor-Throckmorton-Tom Green.

&&

07

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
257 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-212000-
Fisher-Nolan-Sterling-Coke-Runnels-Irion-Tom Green-Concho-
Crockett-Schleicher-Sutton-Haskell-Throckmorton-Jones-Shackelford-
Taylor-Callahan-Coleman-Brown-McCulloch-San Saba-Menard-Kimble-
Mason-
257 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of west central
Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and into tonight
across all of West Central Texas. Very large hail, strong
tornadoes, and damaging winds are the primary hazards.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Additional severe thunderstorms are possible early Tuesday
morning mainly across the eastern half of West Central Texas. The
main hazards are large hail, damaging winds, and flash flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is likely this afternoon.