On the afternoon of the 21st, a dryline mixed to the edge of the Caprock with a weak short wave trough moving overhead. Very hot temperatures easily allowed a cap to break but with convective cloud bases around 10,000 ft.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS LUB wrote it up.
On the afternoon of the 21st, a dryline mixed to the edge of the Caprock with a weak short wave trough moving overhead. Very hot temperatures easily allowed a cap to break but with convective cloud bases around 10,000 ft. The high cloud bases contributed to the greater amount of severe thunderstorm wind reports than severe hail reports.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Lubbock, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 21, 5:02 PM CST, 2 hours 8 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 602 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2019 .AVIATION... VFR will persist through the forecast period. There is a slight chance of storms in the vicinity of Childress later on this evening, but too low for mention in the TAF. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 243 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2019/ DISCUSSION... Dryline has begun making its way east this afternoon after having retreated into the western South Plains this morning. Where the dryline stalls this afternoon (and over the next few days) will determine weather across the area. The first day of summer will bring another round of temperatures at or past the century mark for much of the area. Given these temps, reaching the convective temperature in the far eastern Rolling Plains looks likely this afternoon. This coupled with lift from the dryline and dewpoints in the 60s/70s suggests that there is a chance that isolated storms could develop but warm 700mb-800mb temps will keep towers that do form high based. With DCAPES near 1900 J/kg strong wind gusts will be the main impact but, large hail can't be ruled out with stronger storms given CAPE values of 1500 J/kg to 2000 J/kg and steep lapse rates. The opportunity for convection will be short lived and should quickly dissipate after sunset. Tomorrow and Sunday convection remains possible across portions of the area but will once again be dependent on where the dryline stalls. Unfortunately there is little agreement between the models on how far west the dryline will retreat or how far south an incoming weak front will push into the FA. The GFS continues to show the front just making it to our far NE corner of the FA where the dryline bulges and dewpoints reach the 70s. In this scenario convection develops across the far eastern Rolling Plains. However, the NAM keeps the dryline much further west and washes out the front before it even reaches the far SE Texas Panhandle and has the forecast area completely dry. Given the fact that high temps will be slightly cooler tomorrow due to an approaching shortwave trough/falling heights it may be harder for the far eastern Rolling Plains to reach convective temp and break the CAP however, lift from the trough may be just strong enough to support isolated convection. Given such uncertainties we have decided to continue with the blended PoPs and slight chance across the far eastern Rolling Plains with the understanding that this could change based on the dryline and the front placement tomorrow evening. Sunday a second strong "cold" front is progged to moves through the CWA from north to south with possible convection along the dryline. But, once again models continue to disagree on frontal and dryline placement. The GFS remains dry. Initially this is due to the strong westerly winds and upper level trough keeping the dryline along the TX/OK border followed by the front keeping all moisture east. The NAM is slightly different with weaker westerly flow and upper level forcing which allows the front to move into the CWA. Convection is then possible along the dryline in the far SE portions of the CWA where moisture will be readily available. Again given the lack of consensus have gone with a blended PoP forecast with slight chances. Zonal flow sets up at the start of the week followed by a subtropical ridge that builds over northern Mexico by mid week. This will place the CWA in NW flow and allow low level SE winds to transport Gulf of Mexico moisture into our area. As a result any storms that form in NE NM could move into the area. This is all dependent on the ridge setting up over northern Mexico but if the ridge moves one iota east we could find ourself under the high and the moisture shunted east. Will keep a dry forecast until it is more clear what the high will do. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && 55
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1148 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2019 TXZ021>044-220500- Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale- Floyd-Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King- Yoakum-Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall- 1148 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2019 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains, Rolling Plains and the far Southern Texas Panhandle. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will develop across the far southeast Texas Panhandle into the Rolling Plains late this afternoon into this evening. Damaging downburst wind to 70 mph will be the primary threat with a lower probability of quarter size hail. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday Strong to severe thunderstorms may once again be possible in the late afternoon and evening hours Saturday and Sunday across the eastern South Plains, southeast Texas Panhandle and Rolling Plains. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Limited spotter activation may be requested, primarily off Caprock, late this afternoon into this evening.
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
645 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2019
TXZ042-220015-
Garza TX-
645 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2019
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN GARZA COUNTY UNTIL 715
PM CDT...
At 644 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Post, moving northeast at 25 mph.
Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with this storm.
Locations impacted include...
Post.
LAT...LON 3318 10156 3321 10156 3339 10142 3340 10122
3332 10110 3308 10140
TIME...MOT...LOC 2344Z 218DEG 21KT 3320 10143
07The Lubbock radar (KLBB), 70 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 01:09 UTC.
4 thunderstorm wind, 1 hail. Local standard time, as filed.
A Texas Tech University West Texas mesonet site near Graham measured a wind gust to 68 mph.
A trained spotter reported golf ball size hail near Lake Alan Henry. No damage was reported.
A Texas Tech University West Texas mesonet site near Post measured a wind gust to 64 mph.
A Texas Tech University West Texas mesonet site near Hackberry measured a wind gust to 58 mph.
A Texas Tech University West Texas mesonet site near Aspermont measured a wind gust to 58 mph.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2019Every state in 2019This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, June 2019
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 826636, 826637, 826638, 826639, 826640.