A long-lived complex of thunderstorms, originating across the central Plains and Midwest, moved through Kentucky late this afternoon and evening. A tight instability gradient kept the strongest portions of this line of storms confined to the Lake Cumberland region and southeast parts of Kentucky locally.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS JKL wrote it up.
A long-lived complex of thunderstorms, originating across the central Plains and Midwest, moved through Kentucky late this afternoon and evening. A tight instability gradient kept the strongest portions of this line of storms confined to the Lake Cumberland region and southeast parts of Kentucky locally.
The most significant damage occurred across portions of Pulaski and Wayne Counties, including over 4,000 power outages due to downed trees and powerlines. A fireworks tent and utility pole at the Cumberland Crossing Shopping Center in Monticello were blown down by severe wind gusts, while a few tin roofs were also blown down in and north of Monticello. This led to the declaration of a State of Emergency to assist with cleanup efforts. South of Somerset, a large oak tree was blown down onto a house, causing extensive damage.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jackson, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 21, 6:48 PM EST, 2 hours 14 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 748 PM EDT Fri Jun 21 2019 .UPDATE... Issued at 748 PM EDT FRI JUN 21 2019 Squall line is starting to shift south into the better instability as expected. The gradient continues to line right along the southern edges of Wayne county, so it appears the only severe threat may be in the southwest portion of that county. Otherwise, still looks like another round of rain from the remnants of the northern portion of the line of storms will move through the are producing a round of rain. However, with it expected to weaken as it pushes east, rainfall totals may be hard pressed to reach a half an inch in most locations. Thus, feel the flooding threat with the first round is not that great. Overall, very few changes needed to the forecast at this time. UPDATE Issued at 555 PM EDT FRI JUN 21 2019 Adjusted the timing of the better pops into the area to between 9 pm and midnight for the area. Also maxed out pops as its a near certainty at this point the area will see rainfall. Did refine the thunder chances to the southern zones as instability to the north and east will be limited to say the least. Thus, thunder chances will be best in the southwest where the higher rainfall up to 0.60 inches may be possible. At this time, rainfall amounts should be limited by the forward propagation of this system, so better flood threat may come with the 2nd round later tonight or Saturday morning. Still watching the severe trends, but expect activity to diminish quickly once it gets into central Kentucky where dewpoints drop from the lower 70s into the upper 50s and lower 60s. A few strong wind gusts could still reach our southwest zones this evening. The DCAPE gradient sits right along the Wayne county line along the Tennessee border, so perhaps this would be the most likely area to see a damaging wind gust in our forecast area this evening as the damaging wind threat should follow that gradient fairly closely. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 414 PM EDT FRI JUN 21 2019 After one dry day across eastern Kentucky, showers and thunderstorms will once again be in the offing beginning later this evening. A period of northwest flow will bring multiple rounds of precipitation to eastern Kentucky as energy rides south along the eastern extent of shortwave ridging extending from the Gulf of Mexico to Hudson Bay. The first round of storms will approach later this evening as a mesoscale convective complex, currently pushing into southwest Indiana and lower Illinois, trucks southeast. The Cumberland Valley will stand the best chance of seeing strong to severe wind gusts from this given their closer proximity to the instability axis extending eastward into south central Kentucky. The next round of convection, looking to arrive later tonight into Saturday morning, will be driven by cold pool processes and elevated instability via an elevated mixed layer. This should help in keeping any more robust wind gusts from mixing to the surface, although will have to watch these as deeper mixing ensues after daybreak Saturday. Despite the possibility of damaging wind gusts, the greater threat will certainly be flash flooding. Due to the recent wet pattern, flash flood guidance values remain fairly low and can easily be breached in any thunderstorm that develops. Any location that sees multiple heavy downpours or storms will almost certainly see flooding issues as rain gets immediately converted to runoff. While uncertainty exists regarding the exact timing and placement of rainfall, precipitable water values surging to 1.5-2 inches indicates more than ample moisture for precipitation. Another shortwave trough looks to approach by later Saturday afternoon and evening, likely bringing yet another round of showers and storms. May very well end up having to extend the Flash Flood Watch beyond the current 11 a.m. Saturday end time. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 414 PM EDT FRI JUN 21 2019 There is fairly good model agreement with the evolution of the mean upper air pattern during the coming week. The excessively wet pattern will transition to a drier pattern after the first of the week, but not after a couple more rounds of thunderstorms and potentially heavy rain. At the start of the period mid/upper level ridging will extend from the Gulf of Mexico to Hudson Bay. At the surface a warm front will likely extend from low pressure in the northern MS Valley, southeast across eastern KY. Considerable deep moisture will remain over eastern KY, and it possible a mesoscale convective complex will be affecting eastern KY at the start of the period on Sunday. Even if morning precipitation is occurring Sunday, there will likely be a lull, and with afternoon heating and destabilization more thunderstorms will be possible Sunday afternoon, with some showers and/or storms lingering into Sunday night. With precipitable water from 1.5 to 1.9 inches expected, heavy rain remains a threat. On Monday, the upper level ridge axis will have shifted east of the area, and short wave energy will be heading from the plains towards the Great Lakes. At the surface a cold front will approach Kentucky from the west, with showers and thunderstorms becoming increasingly likely Monday afternoon. It appears precipitable water in the 1.5 to 2.1 inch range may pool right ahead of the cold front on Monday. Additional heavy rain will once again be possible on Monday, but it does appear any storms on Monday will be progressive. A few showers may linger behind the front on Tuesday, but with surface high pressure building into the area behind the front mainly dry weather should prevail for the second half of the week. Temperatures will be near or slightly above normal through the period, but with an increase in the diurnal range as we move away from the pattern of nearly daily rain we've recently experienced. With increasing heights later in the week, this also means we may start to see more maximum temperatures back up in the upper 80s by week's end. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening) ISSUED AT 748 PM EDT FRI JUN 21 2019 A line of showers and storms will slowly weaken as they push into eastern Kentucky over the next 2 to 4 hours. A wind gust to 25 or 30 knots will be possible mainly at KLOZ and KSME as this line of showers and storms moves into the area. A brief reduction to MVFR conditions is also expected with the heavy rain with both visibilities and ceilings coming down a bit. Conditions are expected to return to VFR behind the line, by 06z. Still some question as to how many low clouds will develop later tonight as there will be some low level moisture to work with. We will re- evaluate this potential with the 06z TAF issuance. It does look like another round of rain could move in after 12z Saturday, but the trend has been for a southward shift with this activity, so will hold off on introducing this rain chance into the TAFs for now. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning for KYZ050-058-059- 068-069-079-080-083>085. && UPDATE...KAS SHORT TERM...GUSEMAN LONG TERM...SBH AVIATION...KAS
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Jackson KY 347 PM EDT Fri Jun 21 2019 KYZ044-051-052-060-086>088-104-106>120-222300- Fleming-Bath-Rowan-Menifee-Knox-Bell-Harlan-Elliott-Morgan- Johnson-Wolfe-Magoffin-Floyd-Lee-Breathitt-Knott-Owsley-Perry- Clay-Leslie-Letcher-Martin-Pike- Including the cities of Flemingsburg, Owingsville, Morehead, Frenchburg, Barbourville, Middlesboro, Pineville, Cumberland, Harlan, Sandy Hook, West Liberty, Paintsville, Campton, Salyersville, Prestonsburg, Wheelwright, Beattyville, Jackson, Hindman, Pippa Passes, Booneville, Hazard, Manchester, Hyden, Jenkins, Whitesburg, Inez, Coal Run, Elkhorn City, Pikeville, and South Williamson 347 PM EDT Fri Jun 21 2019 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern Kentucky. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Thunderstorms will be possible tonight. Some of the storms may contain strong wind gusts and heavy rainfall. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. Thunderstorms will be possible at times from Saturday through Tuesday night. Some of the thunderstorms may produce locally heavy rainfall and strong winds, especially this weekend. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not anticipated. KYZ050-058-059-068-069-079-080-083>085-222300- Montgomery-Estill-Powell-Rockcastle-Jackson-Pulaski-Laurel-Wayne- McCreary-Whitley- Including the cities of Camargo, Jeffersonville, Mount Sterling, Irvine, Ravenna, Clay City, Stanton, Brodhead, Mount Vernon, McKee, Annville, Burnside, Somerset, London, Monticello, Stearns, Whitley City, Corbin, and Williamsburg 347 PM EDT Fri Jun 21 2019 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING... This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern Kentucky. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Thunderstorms will be possible tonight. Some of the storms may contain strong wind gusts and heavy rainfall that could result in flash flooding. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. Thunderstorms will be possible at times from Saturday through Tuesday night. Some of the thunderstorms may produce locally heavy rainfall, flash flooding, and strong winds, especially this weekend. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not anticipated. SBH/KAS
The Louisville radar (KLVX), 153 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 02:02 UTC.
7 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A citizen observed a tree down on Old Sawmill Road in Cabell off of Kentucky Highway 1546. This caused some fence damage on a property.
A local media outlet relayed that a utility pole fell next to a fireworks tent at the Cumberland Crossing Shopping Center in Monticello due to a thunderstorm wind gust. Another severe wind gust, about five minutes later, caused the tent to fall down.
The county Emergency Manager and public reported numerous trees down in and north of Monticello along Kentucky Highway 90. These downed trees resulted in powerlines being knocked down, leading to over 4,000 power outages across the county. A few tin roofs were also blown off of buildings, further complicating road accessibility for cleanup crews. A State of Emergency was declared in order to speed up cleanup efforts.
Dispatch reported that a tree was blown down on Danny Drive south of Burnside, while a large oak tree was blown down onto a house south of Somerset.
Dispatch reported trees blown down throughout much of McCreary County, especially the northern portion of the county south to Whitley City.
Dispatch relayed a report of a tree blown down on Tackett Creek Road southeast of Williamsburg.
Dispatch reported trees blown down from Highway 190 near Clear Creek Springs to Pineville on Dorton Branch Road.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kentucky in 2019Every state in 2019This day in weather historyWarnings in Kentucky, June 2019
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 820513, 820371, 820512, 820378, 820379, 820380, 820381.