Hail and Damaging Winds in Texas, June 16 to 17, 2019

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
640 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019

.UPDATE...
VFR conditions at all sites to start off the period. A cluster of
strong to severe thunderstorms look to impact mainly the I-35 sites
tonight. There is still some uncertainty with the timing and extent
of storm activity tonight. Confident that I-35 sites will have a
period of a few hours of MVFR to IFR conditions due to thunderstorms
late this evening and tonight. Once the rain clears the area, MVFR
condtitions will prevail till late morning. DRT is expected to have
only a brief period of MVFR tomorrow morning. Ceilings scatter out
to VFR around the 16Z period with southeasterly winds around 10
knots.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Monday Night)...
A lot of factors at play this afternoon and tonight that will
influence the area. First, ongoing showers and thunder in our
furthest eastern counties. These are primarily diurnal driven
convection that will continue intermittently through sunset. To our
north, a remnant outflow boundary has initiated a line of convection
just north of I-20 from Mineral Wells to Abilene. As this complex
pushes south, it will move through a favorable environment for
strong to severe storms, as instability is quite high. CAPE values
range from 4000-5000 J/kg, steep lapse rates, and adequate shear all
indicate the potential for these storms to be severe. SPC currently
has a highlighted enhanced risk for the area north of I-10, including
Austin, and the northeast portion of San Antonio. In this moisture
rich atmosphere where PWATs range from 1.8 - 1.9, 1-2 inches are
possible with this complex, with isolated areas seeing higher
amounts. Timing for these storms to enter the Hill Country is tonight
from 10pm to midnight, then progressing south southeast to the I-35
corridor. Main threats will be damaging winds and large hail (up to
golf ball size), though there is still a chance for tornadoes. As
this complex progresses overnight, Monday morning could still hold
residual showers, especially east of I-35. These showers won't be
enough to keep temperatures down, as we will still reach normal to
just above normal temperatures of low to mid 90s, and triple digit
heat in our southwest counties.

LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Tuesday, an impulse passes to our east, leaving a chance for showers
and thunder for our eastern counties, while the remainder of the area
stays dry. Weak ridging sets up and remains in place for a mostly
dry week. This ridging will have temperatures on the rise up to
100-103 for the I-35 corridor on Thursday. With our very moist
airmass still in place, heat indices will be elevated as well.
Getting into next weekend, hot and humid conditions with few clouds
are expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              74  93  75  96  76 /  60  30  -   -   -
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  73  93  74  96  75 /  60  30  -   10  -
New Braunfels Muni Airport     73  93  73  96  74 /  50  30   0  10   0
Burnet Muni Airport            71  92  73  95  74 /  60  30  10  10  10
Del Rio Intl Airport           73  98  76  98  77 /  20  -   -   -   10
Georgetown Muni Airport        72  93  74  96  74 /  60  30  10  10  -
Hondo Muni Airport             73  98  75 100  75 /  30  20  -   -    0
San Marcos Muni Airport        73  94  73  97  74 /  60  30   0  10   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   74  92  75  95  76 /  60  50   0  20   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       74  95  75  98  76 /  50  30  -   -    0
Stinson Muni Airport           75  95  75  98  76 /  40  30  -   -    0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Aviation...EWilliams/Oaks
Short-Term/Long-Term...04
Public Service/Data Collection...EWilliams

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
234 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-171945-
Llano-Burnet-Williamson-Val Verde-Edwards-Real-Kerr-Bandera-
Gillespie-Kendall-Blanco-Hays-Travis-Bastrop-Lee-Kinney-Uvalde-
Medina-Bexar-Comal-Guadalupe-Caldwell-Fayette-Maverick-Zavala-
Frio-Atascosa-Wilson-Karnes-Gonzales-De Witt-Lavaca-Dimmit-
234 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for South-Central Texas..

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon And Tonight.

Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and
evening across most of south central Texas with the greatest
potential across portions of the Hill Country and Central Texas.
Damaging winds, large hail, an isolated tornado, and locally heavy
rain will all be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Hot and humid conditions will return to south central Texas,
especially Wednesday through Friday. Afternoon heat indices on
those dates are likely to reach the 102 to 110 degree range along
the Rio Grande and areas along and east of I-35.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Limited spotter activation may be needed across Central Texas and
the Hill Country this evening and tonight.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
841 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019

TXZ173-170215-
Williamson TX-
841 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL WILLIAMSON COUNTY UNTIL
915 PM CDT...

At 840 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Georgetown Dam, or near Georgetown, moving northeast at 20 mph.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Round Rock, Georgetown, Taylor, Serenada, Hutto, Jarrell, Weir,
Georgetown Dam, Sun City, Theon, Jonah and Walburg.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 300 AM CDT for
south central Texas.

LAT...LON 3050 9768 3067 9785 3081 9761 3058 9741
TIME...MOT...LOC 0140Z 235DEG 19KT 3063 9774

MO