Funnel Cloud in Texas, July 28, 2019

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1231 PM CDT Sun Jul 28 2019

.AVIATION...
Showers and thunderstorm have become widespread across southeast
TX by late morning with some sites already experiencing +TSRA and
winds gusting to near 30 kt. These will be hard to time at TAF
sites, so will keep VCTS running through the day and update as
storms near. Active afternoon will give way to quiet evening and
overnight with VFR conditions for the most part. Tomorrow should
be drier with a bit more south to southwest winds.

Evans

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 AM CDT Sun Jul 28 2019/

SHORT TERM [Through Tuesday]...
With the aid of deeper moisture in place, daytime heating and
a weak seabreeze, expect scattered showers and thunderstorms to
develop later this morning and into the afternoon hours. Not
everyone will see precipitation, but at the same time can't rule
out a quick couple inches of rain and some gusty winds in some of
the localized stronger & slower moving cells. FWIW, some of the
hires models seem to favor the general area bounded between
Livingston-Huntsville-Katy-Liberty in the 3-7pm timeframe. Convection
should quickly wane around sunset. Deeper moisture axis edges
east on Monday so anticipating less precip coverage than today.

A northerly flow aloft will be prevailing with a large upper
ridge positioned to our west. Showers and thunderstorms should be
ongoing during the day Monday along a frontal boundary stretching
from the Great Lakes into northern OK. An accompanying
disturbance in the flow aloft may allow some of this activity to
continue pushing swd along the Sabine into Monday night...possibly
clipping portions of se Tx and leaving boundary to work off of
Tue. But it's a bit too early for specific details considering
it'll be driven on the mesoscale by then. 47

LONG TERM [Tuesday Night Through Sunday]...
No real changes to the ongoing fcst. The upper ridge looks to slowly
expand newd into the Southern Plains as the week progresses, while
at the same time a portion of the trof off to the east possibly
cuts off and slowly retrogrades under the ridge toward south Tx.
Fcst of persistence will be the rule locally, with normal late
July & early August wx conditions. Did add a degree or two to the
College Station area highs considering lack of rain, drier grounds
and closer proximity to the ridge. 47

MARINE...
A light to moderate S-SE flow will prevail today into early next
week with high pressure over the central Gulf of Mexico and a weak
trough of low pressure in the lee of the Rockies. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms will be possible the next few days as higher
moisture from the central Gulf moves into the region. 43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      76  96  76  95  74 /  20  10  20  20  10
Houston (IAH)              77  94  77  91  75 /  20  20  20  30  10
Galveston (GLS)            82  91  81  90  79 /  20  10  10  40  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

Discussion...99