A band of light freezing drizzle developed early Thursday morning, February 28, as temperatures fell below 32 degrees behind a strong cold front, causing multiple automobile accidents in and around the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex.
Every event with a place to put it; 4 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS FWD wrote it up.
A band of light freezing drizzle developed early Thursday morning, February 28, as temperatures fell below 32 degrees behind a strong cold front, causing multiple automobile accidents in and around the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Fort Worth, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 27, 11:53 PM CST, 3 hours 7 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 1153 PM CST Wed Feb 27 2019 .AVIATION... /06 UTC TAF Cycle/ Concerns---Ceiling and visibility trends. Very low potential for FZDZ. Confidence in ceiling and visibility trends through the predawn hours is a little on the low side given that guidance has really struggled this evening. What appears likely, however, is that cigs will slowly rise into the MVFR category as dry air to northwest (evidenced by MVFR cigs and increasing dewpoint depressions) slides to the east and southeast. The timing is very tricky, however, and confidence is low that the current TAF reflects the exact clearing times. Amendments to adjust this will likely be necessary. I feel that most of the statistical and even dynamic model guidance is too fast with this clearing and I've gone with a much slower progression of clearing. It looks like there's a good chance that the Thursday morning push across D10 airspace will be MVFR, though some IFR may linger at eastern TAF Metroplex TAFs (GKY and DAL). VFR looks to finally return during the afternoon hours on Thursday. Waco will likely be socked in for a majority of the day with IFR being a good bet through mid-morning. As it pertains to the low potential for -FZDZ, this threat is dwindling and seems unnecessary to include in the latest TAF set. While I cannot rule out the need for deicing of idle and/or arriving aircraft at D10 airports, substantial icing of taxiways and runways appears unlikely as supercooled droplets are very small in size and are likely to be evaporated by the breezy north winds before they can accumulate (this is confirmed by observations at our office here in North Fort Worth). Elevated and exposed surfaces may still acquire a light glaze of ice, however. Visibilities are slowly increasing out near the ABI and SPS area and this progression of improving visibility will continue through the morning hours with MVFR vsby becoming VFR. Waco should remain warm enough to preclude any threat for -FZDZ and VFR vsby is likely to prevail. Bain && .UPDATE... /Issued 914 PM CST Wed Feb 27 2019/ A non-trivial forecast update across the area today with a strong cold front plowing southward through the FA. In general, feel impacts due to any light freezing rain/light freezing drizzle will be limited this evening and I do not anticipate the need for a Winter Weather Advisory at this time. The much advertised cold front continues to barrel southward down towards the upper TX coast. Zonal flow aloft, coupled with meager moisture should keep the potential for widespread measurable rainfall very low across the area. Where temperatures have fallen below 32 degrees, there will be a potential for very light freezing drizzle and this threat appears most likely near and north of a Comanche to D/FW to Paris line. Impacts should be very minor across the area and we've held off a Winter Weather Advisory for a few reasons. 1) Recent calls to areas along the Red River (which have experienced several hours of light FZDZ) revealed little to no icing of road surfaces...including bridges and overpasses. 2) RAP forecast 925mb profiles continue to suggest that slightly drier air may be on the move to the east and southeast. This is likely resulting in shrinking supercooled water droplets and this should be detrimental to the risk for substantial ice accretion rates necessary for widespread slick spots. 3) In tandem with #2, the strong north winds may also be helping to limit ice accretion via evaporation. All that in mind, I can't rule out a slick bridge or overpass, but we feel that this potential is conveyed well in graphics and the Special Weather Statement. I've followed the latest HRRR for hourly and min temperatures and while this guidance offers the most realistic output, it still appears a little too slow and subsequent tweaks to hourly temperatures are likely. Otherwise, updated products will be out shortly. Bain && .SHORT TERM... /Issued 413 PM CST Wed Feb 27 2019/ /Tonight Through Friday/ The main challenge in the near term will be tonight into Thursday morning, as temperatures fall into the 30s and 40s. The potential for patchy light fog, drizzle, or even patchy freezing drizzle from Highway 380 to the Red River and possibly as far south as Eastland/Stephenville out west. The culprit is a very shallow arctic airmass expected to remain less than 1000 feet deep that continues to surge south of I-20 and I-30 in the east as of this writing. High-resolution models have struggled on the depth of the arctic airmass, along with showing different projections on any light drizzle or freezing drizzle potential tonight. The culprit is in the strength of the west-southwest flow and modest isentropic ascent just above the frontal inversion in the boundary layer. This can determine how much drizzle falls into the cold airmass below. The NAM is the most bullish, with the HREF in the middle, and the HRRR/GFS not showing much at all. Per current observations and temperature trends, I'm going middle ground here, which mirrors our previous forecast very closely with low chances for showers in our eastern and Central Texas counties, with patchy fog and drizzle just about everywhere. The concern continues to be the area noted above that will likely fall below freezing tonight. Right now, per collaboration with offices bordering these areas to the north and west, is that any accretion and expanse of any freezing drizzle is too uncertain for any Freezing Drizzle Advisory issuance on this package, but something that certainly needs to be monitored very closely as we move into the evening hours. Similarly, early Thursday morning during the morning rush hour just north and west of the immediate Metroplex is challenging, but for now it appears the dry air will be arriving along the frontal inversion which should put an end to any potential and spotty freezing drizzle. Skies will begin to clear towards midday and temperatures moderate into the upper 30s and lower 40s. Otherwise, despite the clearing and shallow nature of the arctic airmass across the area, I'm definitely leaning toward the colder side of guidance and may be a tad warm, but this is semantics at this point for high temperatures Thursday as brisk north winds around 10 mph continue. Cold surface high pressure settles by Thursday evening, before sliding east of the area with returning south winds 10-15 mph on Friday. It will be another chilly morning Friday, but temperatures should moderate, especially across the western counties in the higher terrain. How quickly this shallow dome of arctic air modifies elsewhere is the quandary, especially with the return of extensive cloud cover associated with a mid level disturbances moving across the area. I'd stay on the cool side with highs only in the 50s in the eastern counties. However, as noted before, it's possible advertised high temperatures east of I-35 may be too warm all things considered. Enough moisture will reside across the far northeast counties for a low chance of light showers, but nothing of significance. 05/ && .LONG TERM... /Issued 413 PM CST Wed Feb 27 2019/ /Friday night and beyond/ There are two main concerns in the extended part of the forecast. First, we will see another strong cold front moving across the area this weekend some time late Saturday evening or overnight. The timing of the front continues to be the tricky part of the forecast. The GFS continues to move the front a little faster, shifting the winds during the evening hours (later than the previous runs suggested). On the opposite side, ECMWF is the slowest, moving the front across North Texas late Saturday night. Regardless on when this happens, there is high confidence that precipitation chances will increase along the front. At this time, we only expect rain to occur across the area as temperatures will be well above freezing Saturday/Saturday night. The challenging part comes on Sunday morning. There will be another push of cold air, but how much moisture will be available is still uncertain. If sufficient precipitation can linger behind the system into Sunday morning, there will be a possibility for some light wintry-mix precipitation (freezing rain/or sleet) on Sunday. At this time, thermal profiles suggest freezing rain or sleet scenario, but again, this will depend on how saturated will be the atmosphere. For now, the best chance for any wintry precipitation will be across the north/northwest of the DFW Metroplex. I want to reiterate that there are a lot of uncertainties with this part of the forecast and more details will be refined in the upcoming days. One thing for sure is the return of the winter-like temperatures for the early part of the week across all North and Central TX. We will wake up with temperatures in the 20s and teens (across the northwest) on Monday morning. Afternoon highs will only be in the 30s and low 40s. Another very cold night (lows in the 20s) is expected Monday night into Tuesday morning. Expect the cold/cool but dry conditions to continue through at least the mid part of the week. Sanchez && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 29 43 39 61 53 / 20 10 5 10 20 Waco 34 45 38 64 56 / 20 20 10 10 20 Paris 29 44 38 56 49 / 30 20 5 20 30 Denton 27 43 36 59 50 / 20 10 5 10 20 McKinney 28 43 37 60 51 / 20 10 0 10 20 Dallas 30 44 40 62 54 / 20 10 5 10 20 Terrell 32 44 38 61 54 / 20 20 5 10 20 Corsicana 34 45 39 62 55 / 20 20 5 10 20 Temple 34 45 40 67 57 / 20 20 10 10 20 Mineral Wells 27 44 38 64 50 / 10 5 5 10 20 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && 24/30
Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 953 PM CST Wed Feb 27 2019 TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-010400- Montague-Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Young-Jack-Wise-Denton-Collin- Hunt-Delta-Hopkins-Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker-Tarrant-Dallas- Rockwall-Kaufman-Van Zandt-Rains-Eastland-Erath-Hood-Somervell- Johnson-Ellis-Henderson-Comanche-Mills-Hamilton-Bosque-Hill-Navarro- Freestone-Anderson-Lampasas-Coryell-Bell-McLennan-Falls-Limestone- Leon-Milam-Robertson- 953 PM CST Wed Feb 27 2019 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for North and Central Texas. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Light freezing drizzle will be possible during the overnight hours. While widespread significant impacts are not expected, a slick spot or two on bridges or overpasses cannot be ruled out for areas near and north of a Comanche to D/FW to Cooper line. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. The potential for light freezing drizzle may linger through mid morning Thursday across areas near and north of a Comanche to D/FW to Cooper line. A slick spot or two will be possible on a bridge or overpass. There is a slight chance for thunderstorms across parts of Central Texas Thursday afternoon. Lightning strikes are expected to be the primary hazard. A chance wintry weather returns to areas northwest of a line from Comanche to Mineral Wells to Decatur and Sherman Sunday. Uncertainty remains high right now with regards to precipitation type and amounts. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time, however, any reports of freezing drizzle or impacts due to winter weather are appreciated. Bain
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
4 winter weather. Local standard time, as filed.
Tarrant County Sheriff's Department reported 2 accidents on Avendale Haslet Road due to ice on the roadway.
Broadcast media reported 2 sets of accidents involving 10 cars near the intersection of Loop 635 and Luna Road due to ice.
A social media report indicated 2 rollover accidents on Loop 820 in the city of Fort Worth; one at Mark IV Parkway and one at Blue Mound Road, due to ice on the roadway.
One hundredth of an inch of ice was reported at DFW airport.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2019Every state in 2019This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, February 2019
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 804651, 804652, 804654, 804662.