Dense Fog in Texas, December 27, 2019

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
932 AM CST Fri Dec 27 2019

.UPDATE...
Cold front boundary was settling southward through the Rolling
Plains, and perhaps can jump onto the Caprock though initial cold
surge is fairly shallow. But temperatures today likely to struggle
with the combination of the front and increasing light rain and
fog. Updated both for the cooler temperatures and wind shift, as
well as to include a Dense Fog Advisory, initially for the
southern Texas Panhandle, northern South Plains, and northern
Rolling Plains. Fog was also expanding further south into the
central South Plains. RMcQueen

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 524 AM CST Fri Dec 27 2019/

AVIATION...
Poor flying conditions continue across all terminals, and will
through most of the TAF period until around 0900 UTC for KLBB and
KPVW, and 1100 UTC for KCDS as a cold front will move through the
region during that time. Expect IFR/LIFR conditions to persist
for the day Friday and into Friday night due to low CIGs and
reduced visibility until then.

Showers will gradually increase in coverage during the latter
part of the afternoon Friday, with isolated thunder possible.
Thunder has not been added to the TAFs this cycle given the slight
chance of occurrence, though a TEMPO group may be necessary later
this evening should thunderstorms develop near the terminals. VFR
conditions will return during the early to mid-morning hours
Saturday, with breezy conditions in the afternoon.

Sincavage

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 310 AM CST Fri Dec 27 2019/

DISCUSSION...
Broad southwesterly flow is in place this morning with a nearly cut-
off low situated in SERN CA.  This is helping to bring in copious
amounts of low level moisture all the way back to the mountains of
central NM. Given the large scale pattern, would expect to see
streamer showers today with quite light QPF totals in areas lucky
enough to receive precipitation.  It appears we will stay socked
in with deep low level cloudiness for much of the day. Little
diurnal temperature range is expected. The UL system will make
its way to the four corners. This, in turn, will start mid-level
cooling through column saturation will make it very difficult to
get much CAPE. Still, a few embedded thunderstorms may become
established mainly across the southeastern half of the CWFA. Drier
westerly winds behind the frontal boundary will sweep through
west to east by sunrise on Saturday morning. The UL trough appears
to evolve into a multi-core morphology into Saturday night with
the leading wave ejecting into western KS followed by a second
lobe of energy around mid-day Sunday. This complex scenario looks
to give us a bit of a reprieve on winds for Saturday afternoon
yielding speeds in the mid 20s. Low level RH values look to remain
in-check with min RH values bottoming out near 30 pct.

A cold front enters the CWFA tomorrow night with drier and cooler
air. Several solutions are depicting a bit of wrap-around
precipitation in our northwest. This is typically over-done in the
models unless it gets quite cold. Temperatures for Sunday morning
appear to fit the mold for a few flurries.

The next system dives along the California coast on Monday with
zonal flow returning across our part of the country.  This low
appears to cut off INVOF Baja California then traverse south of the
region by the end of next week.  This would tend to suggest dry
conditions next week with a frontal passage along about Thursday
unless the trajectory is substantially further north than progged.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST today for TXZ021>032.

&&

05/99

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
911 AM CST Fri Dec 27 2019

TXZ021>044-281515-
Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-
Floyd-Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-
Yoakum-Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall-
911 AM CST Fri Dec 27 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains, Rolling
Plains and the far Southern Texas Panhandle.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Areas of dense fog with visibilities near or under a quarter of a
mile will occur today.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.