Damaging Winds in Texas, August 31, 2019

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
246 PM CDT Sat Aug 31 2019

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Sunday)

As of 2 pm today, other than a few isolated light showers/sprinkles,
fair weather was occurring across West Central Texas, according to
radar and satellite imagery. However, hi-res models indicate that
some showers/storms will probably develop later this afternoon,
mainly over the Heartland and Northwest Hill Country regions. Any
storms should dissipate by early evening as the atmosphere
stabilizes. Overnight lows tonight are forecast to be in the low
70s.

Models indicate an upper level disturbance moving through the region
early Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon, bringing scattered
showers and thunderstorms to mainly the southern half of the
forecast area (south of I-20), with highest chances in the Northern
Edwards Plateau. Lowered high temperatures for tomorrow,
particularly in the southern counties, due to the expected increase
in cloud cover and potential rainy conditions. Forecast shows highs
in the upper 80s/low 90s in the I-10 corridor, low to mid 90s in the
Concho Valley/Heartland, and mid 90s in the Big Country.

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through Saturday)

An upper level high is expected to be our dominant weather feature
through the week. The high will be centered over the Four Corners
region early in the week, shifting southeast to the Texas Panhandle
Wednesday and Thursday. Little change in our temperatures is
expected, with the daily highs in the mid and upper 90s. With the
airmass becoming a little drier, light winds at night should allow
temperatures to drop into the upper 60s to lower 70s for overnight
lows.

The high is progged to become recentered over the southwestern part
of the country by next weekend. The 12Z ECMWF still has the high
close enough to our area to maintain a dry scenario. The GFS has
weak northerly flow aloft, and has a shortwave trough moving
southeast across Oklahoma and parts of North Texas Saturday night.
With this setup, the GFS has a cold front moving into our area from
the north by Saturday night, and indicates a possibility of showers
and thunderstorms with the front. Given the model differences at the
end of the forecast, leaning toward persistence at this time and not
introducing rain chances in the forecast yet.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 	 73  94  71  94 /  10  10   0   0
San Angelo 	 71  93  69  96 /   5  30   5   5
Junction 	 72  90  69  94 /  20  40   5   5
Brownwood 	 71  92  69  94 /  10  20   5   0
Sweetwater 	 72  93  71  95 /   5  10   5   0
Ozona      	 69  91  68  94 /  10  40   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...SJH
LONG TERM...19

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
213 PM CDT Sat Aug 31 2019

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-011915-
Fisher-Nolan-Sterling-Coke-Runnels-Irion-Tom Green-Concho-
Crockett-Schleicher-Sutton-Haskell-Throckmorton-Jones-Shackelford-
Taylor-Callahan-Coleman-Brown-McCulloch-San Saba-Menard-Kimble-
Mason-
213 PM CDT Sat Aug 31 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of west central
Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible this
afternoon and early evening. The main hazards will be deadly
lightning and strong downburst winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Scattered thunderstorms will be possible Sunday morning and
afternoon, mainly south of interstate 20. The main hazards will be
deadly lightning, locally heavy rain and strong downburst winds.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.