High Wind in Texas, April 13, 2019

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
1245 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2019

.AVIATION...
13/18Z TAFs. Primarily MVFR conditions across central and southern
Oklahoma into areas around KSPS, with IFR possible in areas of
heavier rainfall. TSRA should stay confined to KSPS and KLAW
areas and that will be quite isolated. Far northern and western
Oklahoma terminals will likely stay VFR. Strong north-northeast
winds will continue through at least 03Z especially from KOKC to
KSPS and areas south and east. Will keep mention of LLWS at
KOKC/KOUN first few hours of forecast before surface winds
increase closer to flow just off of the deck. Winds expected to
subside toward and after 03Z most locations as gradient relaxes
and rain moves out. VFR conditions expected thereafter.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1137 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2019/

UPDATE...
Main changes this morning were to lower rain chances across far
northern and western parts of Oklahoma and to increase wind speeds
across central and southeast portions of the state. As surface low
intensifies to our south through the day, gradient will continue
to tighten and will support sustained winds close to 30 mph and
gusts over 40 mph. In addition, some of the embedded heavier
showers will support momentum transport of stronger winds. For
now, we will continue the advisory through this evening, but
some guidance would suggest that we will need to go past midnight
across south-central and southeast parts of Oklahoma. This will be
assessed with the afternoon forecast package.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 515 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2019/

DISCUSSION...

AVIATION...
IFR conditions are expected to form over southern and central
Oklahoma this morning along with rain and scattered thunderstorms.
The storm system will last through early Sunday morning. Gusty
northeast winds will develop this afternoon into tonight over
southern Oklahoma.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 345 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2019/

DISCUSSION...
Rain, showers, and thunderstorms will continue to develop and
spreads into Oklahoma from the south this morning while a
developing upper level storm moves from New Mexico across western
and northern Texas today. Northeast winds will be increasing given
the intensification of a surface low moving across central then
through northeast Texas this evening. A wind advisory is in effect
for later this afternoon and evening along the Red River region of
Texas and Oklahoma for wind gusts 40 to 50 mph around the surface
low. Up to 3 inches of rain may fall over northern TX and southern
OK before Sunday morning. There continues to be a slight risk for
flash flooding in these areas. Once this storm system moves east,
sunny skies are expected to return tomorrow and the beginning of
next week before the next storm affects OK mid week. Another upper
trough and developing closed low are expected to cross from CO
into KS late Tuesday and into Wednesday. Very strong westerly
mid-level flow in the jet over western TX around the base of the
upper low is expected to mix the dry line into OK Wednesday
morning. This would keep sufficient moisture for rain/thunder
chances mainly over eastern and part of northern Oklahoma. Wind
strong winds around the low, there will be window for at least
elevated fire weather conditions Wednesday. A milder and dry
airmass is expected for Thursday and Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  49  36  62  46 / 100 100  10   0
Hobart OK         46  33  62  45 / 100  90   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  49  37  65  48 / 100 100   0   0
Gage OK           50  28  65  42 /  60  50   0   0
Ponca City OK     52  36  62  44 /  70  70  10   0
Durant OK         56  39  63  45 / 100 100   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Wind Advisory until midnight CDT tonight for OKZ023>032-035>048-
     050>052.

TX...Wind Advisory until midnight CDT tonight for TXZ083>090.

&&

11/12/11

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
1208 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2019

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-141715-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
1208 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Through Tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
Widespread rain with embedded thunderstorms is expected through
this afternoon. The great risk for thunderstorms will be across
southern Oklahoma and north Texas. Severe weather is not expected.

.Heavy Rainfall...
Heavy rainfall may lead to localized flooding, especially across
southern Oklahoma and north Texas.

.Strong Winds...
North winds at 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 45 mph are expected
across southern Oklahoma and north Texas this afternoon into this
evening.

.Frost and Freeze...
A freeze will be possible across western Oklahoma tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday...

.Frost and Freeze...
A freeze will be possible across western Sunday morning.

.Thunderstorms...
There is a chance of thunderstorms Wednesday of next week,
primarily across central and eastern Oklahoma. Strong to severe
thunderstorms are possible.

.Fire Weather...
Elevated Fire Weather conditions will be possible on Wednesday and
Thursday of next week, primarily across western Oklahoma and
adjacent parts of north Texas.

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