Scattered showers and thunderstorms developed across Middle Tennessee during the afternoon and evening hours on June 18. Localized heavy rainfall caused some minor flooding Putnam and Overton Counties.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS OHX wrote it up.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms developed across Middle Tennessee during the afternoon and evening hours on June 18. Localized heavy rainfall caused some minor flooding Putnam and Overton Counties.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Nashville, TN wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 18, 1:15 PM CST, 3 hours 12 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 215 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2019 .DISCUSSION... Another round of heavy rain from showers and thunderstorms moved through the area overnight, and so far this afternoon theres been mainly isolated showers. This looks to be the trend tonight and into Wednesday morning before the upper trough slides eastward during the day Wednesday. Chances for showers and storms will increase during the day Wednesday, with the best chances from late afternoon through the overnight hours as the trough and cold front move through the area. Current models show up to around 2000 J/kg of MLCAPE for the western half of the area late Wednesday afternoon, and decent deep layer shear around 30 to 35 knots. The CAPE does drop a bit after sunset and into the early morning hours as the upper trough and front approach the area as well as the loss of diurnal support. Initial soundings show drier air aloft in the late afternoon and evening before becoming saturated late Wednesday evening into Thursday morning. This would indicate that the highest severe threat would be from the late afternoon Wednesday through the early morning hours Thursday, where damaging winds and maybe even some hail may impact the mid state with any severe thunderstorms that develop. The second part of the story tomorrow will be the potential for flash flooding for areas that receive multiple rounds of heavy rain on already saturated grounds from previous rainfall. Soundings show very saturated conditions from around 03Z through 09-12Z depending on which part of the area you sample. PWAT values get to around 2 inches during the middle portion of that time frame, and freezing levels are around 13kft to 14kft. Combined with the well distributed instability and shear, the LLJ does ramp up late Wednesday night to be around 40 knots, which will increase moisture transport into the mid state. Adding all of these factors up, widespread 1 to 2 inches of rain looks likely, but some areas that see multiple rounds of convection may see 2 to 4 inches by Thursday morning. The one limiting factor to more widespread high precip amounts is the faster storm motion, and the rapid progression of the shortwave aloft. However, with the rainfall we have already received, combined with the potential for efficient rainfall production/rates, flash flooding will be a concern for the areas that receive those higher amounts Wednesday night into Thursday morning especially over the southwest and/or northeast part of the area. Those locations have received a radar estimated total of up to 4 inches over the past few days, and additional heavy rainfall will increase flooding concerns. Precip will be on its way out Thursday afternoon as the upper trough moves eastward. Upper ridging will follow behind, so Thursday night and even most of Friday looks dry. A few models do show some weak disturbances in the ridge, and a few showers and storms show up in the west Friday afternoon, but not too confident in that solution yet. Do have mention in the forecast, through. Getting into the day Saturday, the ridge begins to break down which allows for some afternoon convection to again pop into the forecast. Have in chance pops Saturday and Sunday afternoon to match up. A strong Plains trough will move eastward late Sunday and into Monday, which will bring another front through the area and a better chance at showers and thunderstorms. Have increased pops for Monday afternoon and evening to line up with current model solutions. Agreement starts to fall apart after Monday, so kept in slight chance mention for showers and storms on Tuesday. && .AVIATION... 18Z TAF DISCUSSION. Difficult forecast for the short term with scattered showers moving through the area this afternoon. Thunderstorms are possible, but not confident enough to include. Mainly expecting VFR conditions with periods of MVFR due to low CIGS possible at MQY/BNA/CKV/CSV or if a shower passes over terminal. Conditions should improve by 23Z at MQY/BNA, by 02Z at CSV and remain VFR through most of the overnight period. Beginning around 10Z tomorrow, fog may develop at all terminals, with MVFR to IFR conditions possible. Any fog that develops should clear by 14Z. Could see scattered showers and thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon, but will let later TAF cycles address. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 70 87 71 85 68 / 30 50 80 60 10 Clarksville 69 85 69 83 66 / 20 60 80 40 10 Crossville 66 80 66 78 63 / 50 50 80 80 20 Columbia 68 87 70 85 67 / 30 50 80 60 10 Lawrenceburg 68 86 69 84 68 / 30 50 80 70 10 Waverly 69 87 69 85 69 / 30 50 80 60 10 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && DISCUSSION......Barnwell AVIATION........MacDonald
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Nashville TN 654 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2019 TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-191200- Stewart-Montgomery-Robertson-Sumner-Macon-Clay-Pickett-Houston- Humphreys-Dickson-Cheatham-Davidson-Wilson-Trousdale-Smith- Jackson-Putnam-Overton-Fentress-Perry-Hickman-Lewis-Williamson- Maury-Marshall-Rutherford-Cannon-De Kalb-White-Cumberland-Bedford- Coffee-Warren-Grundy-Van Buren-Wayne-Lawrence-Giles- 654 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2019 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Middle Tennessee. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Isolated strong storms with heavy down pours are possible today. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday Isolated strong to severe storms are also possible Wednesday night into early Thursday morning. These storms may produce damaging wind gusts and hail, especially west of I-65. Heavy downpours leading to minor flooding are also possible. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is possible Wednesday night.
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1154 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2019
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0615 PM TSTM WND DMG 11 NNW LEWISBURG 35.61N 86.83W
06/17/2019 MAURY TN EMERGENCY MNGR
NUMEROUS TREES AND POWERLINES SNAPPED ALONG US 431.
LIKELY DOWNBURST.
&&
DHThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
2 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Flood waters covered 465 Terrapin Ridge Road, and mud and rocks covered 714 Hilham Highway west of Livingston.
A small section of Old Baxter Road was washed out.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Tennessee in 2019Every state in 2019This day in weather historyWarnings in Tennessee, June 2019
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 834833, 834834.