Damaging Wind in South Dakota, August 26, 2019

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
139 PM MDT Mon Aug 26 2019

.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Monday)
Issued at 136 PM MDT Mon Aug 26 2019

An upper trough covers the northern plains, with a 100
kt jet moving over the region. A few showers and weak storms have
developed across parts of the CWA. At the surface, a tight pressure
gradient is keeping northwesterly winds gusty across the western SD
plains. Temperatures are only in the 60s and lower 70s this
afternoon.

Isolated showers/storms will dissipate this evening, but then CAMs
are picking up on some more light precipitation late tonight across
northeastern WY and parts of western SD, along an area of weak
frontogenesis beneath an upper shortwave. Lows will be around 50.

The upper trough will shift east on Tuesday, as a ridge builds
over the western CONUS. Conditions will be cool and dry, with
highs around 70. A tight pressure gradient will result in gusty
winds Tuesday afternoon. However, pressure change and CAA won't
contribute much, if anything, so winds should stay below advisory
criteria, around 25 mph sustained with gusts to 40 mph. Beneath
northwest flow, dry weather will continue into Wednesday and most
of Thursday, and temperatures will begin warming back into the
80s.

Shortwave energy will break down the ridge on Thursday, and another
cold front will slide through the region. The next chance for
precipitation will be Thursday evening, but lack of instability will
inhibit thunderstorm development. Chances for showers will continue
into Friday. Behind the cold front, highs will be only around 70.
Another ridge will build for the weekend, bringing a return of
warmer and drier weather for a couple days.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Tuesday)
Issued At 1113 AM MDT Mon Aug 26 2019

Areas of MVFR cigs mainly across northwest SD will gradually lift
to VFR this afternoon. Gusty northwest winds to around 35 knots
are expected through the afternoon, especially across northwest
SD including the KRAP terminal, with winds decreasing this
evening.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...Pojorlie
AVIATION...Johnson

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
607 AM MDT Mon Aug 26 2019

SDZ001-002-012>014-024>032-041>044-046-047-049-072>074-WYZ054>058-
071-271300-
Harding-Perkins-Butte-Northern Meade Co Plains-Ziebach-
Northern Black Hills-Northern Foot Hills-Rapid City-
Southern Foot Hills-Central Black Hills-Southern Black Hills-
Custer Co Plains-Pennington Co Plains-Haakon-Fall River-
Oglala Lakota-Jackson-Bennett-Mellette-Todd-Tripp-
Sturgis/Piedmont Foot Hills-Southern Meade Co Plains-
Hermosa Foot Hills-Northern Campbell-Southern Campbell-
Western Crook-Wyoming Black Hills-Weston-Northeastern Crook-
607 AM MDT Mon Aug 26 2019 /707 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2019/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western South Dakota and
northeastern Wyoming.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed today.

&&

Stay tuned to NOAA weather radio for further updates...or check
our web site at weather.gov/rapidcity

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
412 PM MDT Mon Aug 26 2019

SDZ001-262245-
Harding SD-
412 PM MDT Mon Aug 26 2019

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL HARDING COUNTY...

At 411 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 2 miles west of Ludlow to 4 miles southwest of
West Short Pines. Movement was east at 50 mph.

Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Buffalo, Harding, Ludlow, Ralph, Camp Crook, Redig, East Short Pines,
West Short Pines, South Cave Hills, North Cave Hills, Lake Gardner
and northwestern Slim Buttes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Seek safe shelter inside a building or vehicle until these storms
have passed.

&&

LAT...LON 4586 10294 4574 10294 4524 10357 4532 10405
      4551 10404 4588 10357
TIME...MOT...LOC 2211Z 278DEG 44KT 4582 10342 4537 10399

JC