Hail and Damaging Wind in South Dakota, August 25, 2019

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
651 PM MDT Sun Aug 25 2019

.UPDATE...
Issued at 648 PM MDT Sun Aug 25 2019

Next round of convection, with some strong to severe
thunderstorms, is currently crossing northeastern Wyoming. Those
storms are expected to continue across the Black Hills area and
into southwestern and south central South Dakota still this
evening, exiting south central South Dakota after midnight.

&&

.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Sunday)
Issued at 240 PM MDT Sun Aug 25 2019

Current surface analysis shows low pressure over western ND, with
cold front extending south into northwest SD and the Black Hills
area. Upper level analysis shows strong jet moving into the area
from the west, with near zonal flow in place. Skies are mostly
sunny to partly cloudy with temps generally in the upper 70s and
80s. KUDX radar still shows a few showers and embedded thunder
over northwest SD, with some activity developing now over the
Black Hills. Winds are northwesterly behind the front, east to
southeast ahead of it.

Active wx is expected across parts of the area late this afternoon
and evening as the cold front and shortwave energy aloft move
further east across the region. Best instability will remain east of
the Black Hills toward central SD, up to 2000 j/kg MUCAPE, with
sufficient shear for supercells late today along and east of the
front. A severe thunderstorm watch has just been issued for far
eastern parts of the forecast area until 03z. Stronger shear further
west behind the front could combine with adequate instability for
strong to marginally severe storms as well from far northeast WY
through the Black Hills area this evening. Large hail, strong wind
gusts, and locally heavy rainfall are possible with the strongest
storms. Trailing upper level energy will continue to bring chances
for showers and storms into the overnight.

Much cooler and brisk conditions can be expected for the first half
of the week as strong northwest flow aloft develops behind
strengthening system to the northeast of the region. Gusty northwest
winds can be expected during the late morning and afternoon hours on
Monday and Tuesday across the SD plains. A few showers are possible
Monday, especially over northwest SD and the Black Hills. Otherwise,
mainly dry conditions for the first half of the week. Highs Monday
and Tuesday will be in the upper 60s and 70s across the plains, with
upper 50s and 60s over the Black Hills. Nighttime lows will drop
into the mid 40s to mid 50s, with some 30s likely over the higher
Black Hills Monday night and Tuesday night. A bit more seasonable
temperatures will return midweek, but temps will generally stay
below average into next weekend. Weak disturbances and another cold
front toward the end of the week could bring a few showers and
storms, but most areas will likely stay dry.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued At 518 PM MDT Sun Aug 25 2019

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected tonight. A few
strong to severe storms are possible this evening. Areas of MVFR
conditions are possible with any showers or storms.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

Update...10
DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...10

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
624 AM MDT Sun Aug 25 2019

SDZ014-032-043-044-046-047-049-261300-
Ziebach-Haakon-Jackson-Bennett-Mellette-Todd-Tripp-
624 AM MDT Sun Aug 25 2019 /724 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2019/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western South
Dakota.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A slight risk of severe thunderstorms is forecast for western and
central South Dakota, east of a line from Faith to Wall to Martin.
Large hail and damaging wind gusts are possible with the storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed today.

&&

Stay tuned to NOAA weather radio for further updates...or check
our web site at weather.gov/rapidcity

SDZ001-002-012-013-024>031-041-042-072>074-WYZ054>058-071-261300-
Harding-Perkins-Butte-Northern Meade Co Plains-
Northern Black Hills-Northern Foot Hills-Rapid City-
Southern Foot Hills-Central Black Hills-Southern Black Hills-
Custer Co Plains-Pennington Co Plains-Fall River-Oglala Lakota-
Sturgis/Piedmont Foot Hills-Southern Meade Co Plains-
Hermosa Foot Hills-Northern Campbell-Southern Campbell-
Western Crook-Wyoming Black Hills-Weston-Northeastern Crook-
624 AM MDT Sun Aug 25 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwestern and
southwestern South Dakota...the Black Hills of South
Dakota and Wyoming...and northeastern Wyoming.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and
evening. The storms may produce large hail and damaging wind
gusts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed today.

&&

Stay tuned to NOAA weather radio for further updates...or check
our web site at weather.gov/rapidcity

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