Tornado in South Carolina, March 1, 2019

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
239 PM EST Fri Mar 1 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A wet pattern will continue as a stationary front remains over
the region through the weekend. Low pressure and its associated
strong cold front will move over the forecast area late Sunday
into early Monday. Dry high pressure and colder temperatures
will eventually spread back over the area early next week in
the front's wake.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 235 PM: Area of showers and isolated storms will move east of
the area this evening as a short wave and area of upper divergence
move across the area. Squeeze play between a wedge front dropping
across the NC foothills and piedmont and a cold front moving in from
the west will create havoc with winds and temps. Have tried to
adjust trends in these fields for the forecast this evening.

Overnight, precip tapers off as the cold front moves through and
winds temps take on more typical trends of a weak cold frontal
passage. Clouds should clear out toward morning for most locations
but may take until mid morning for others. There will be some high
elevation gusty winds, but they should be below advisory levels.
Lows should end up 5 to 10 degrees above normal.

Clearing skies and diminishing winds expected by Saturday afternoon.
Highs will be 5 to 10 degrees above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 130 PM Thursday: With the combination of the onset of llvl waa
flow Saturday night and continued moistening from the top down,
shower chances will begin to ramp up during the late night hours.
A wall of deep layered forcing and moisture remains timed to
overspread the region on Sunday. Sfc cyclone will also ripple east
east acrs the cwfa Sunday afternoon and evening along a northward
retreating warm front.  Lower level forcing will be maximized during
this time leading to the likelihood of a period of heavy rainfall.
The chance for embedded convective elements also is probable with
SREF probabilities of CAPE values of a few hundred J/KG increasing
acrs the SC/GA piedmont.

Timing of dry slot encroachment should be able to allow categorical
pcpn cvrg to translate downstream of even the eastern cwfa by
midnight.  Within the llvl caa, wrap-around and upslope flow, a
round of rain and snow showers will remain in the forecast for the
typically favored NC mountain locales.  Within the continued post-
frontal drying, a brisk and cooler Monday is on tap featuring max
temps about two categories below the early March climo.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 235 PM Friday: Cold, blustery, and mainly dry conditions are
expected to filter into the region behind the cold front Monday
night with a reinforcing shot of cold air bringing even colder
conditions Tuesday night into Wednesday. Current model guidance
continues to indicate a weak wave will try to develop along the
arctic frontal boundary along the north Gulf of Mexico Tuesday
morning before shifting offshore later in the day. At this time the
only impact to the area is increasing clouds focused across the
southern tier of the FA. However, with cold air in place, there
would be the potential for light wintry precipitation should the
wave form closer to the FA. High temps will only make it into the
40s on Tuesday and likely 5 or even 10 degrees cooler for Wednesday
despite mostly sunny skies with highs in the upper 30s to mid 40s.
Low temps may be the bigger impact with a hard freeze expected
across the region, which could have an impact the early green up
across many areas. Lows Tuesday or Wednesday night will likely be
the coldest with widespread lows in teens across the mountains and
20s elsewhere at least one of those nights. Advisory level northwest
winds are possible, especially across the mountains sometime late
Tuesday into Wednesday with 850 mb winds currently advertised as
peaking between 25-40 kts with a tightening sfc pressure gradient in
response to the descending portion of a 140 kt jet streak passes
through the region. The combination of gusty winds and cold
temperatures will likely knock wind chills down into the single
digits, if not below zero across many mountain locations Tuesday
night into early Wednesday morning.

The deep trough centered over eastern North America that will be
responsible for the cold and brisk conditions will likely slide
offshore while weakening by the end of the work week. Flat ridging
will follow, providing more zonal flow and weak warm air advection
before more southerly flow and additionally warming occurs heading
into next weekend. Moist southerly upglide possibly associated with
a warm front may support light precip across the area as early as
Thursday night, but more likely by late in the day Friday. With
lingering cold air in place, precip may start out as snow or a
wintry mix, especially across the mountains, before turning to all
rain everywhere. Highs will generally be in the mid 40s to 50s
Thursday into Friday with increasing clouds and precip somewhat
countering the warmer airmass moving in from the southwest.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: IFR to LIFR cigs and vsby will continue ahead
of an area of convection moving east across the area. The isolated
storms with this area look to thread the needle between TAF sites
this afternoon. Vsby improvement as high as VFR but continued IFR
cigs linger behind this convection. More scattered precip will
continue behind this convection before a cold front moves across the
area overnight. Vsby should improve greatly for most locations but
IFR or even LIFR cigs will continue until clearing behind the front
as late as mid morning Saturday. Once clearing takes place, VFR is
expected through the day. Winds will remain S for the SC sites
overnight becoming N to NW on Saturday. KCLT S wind becomes N to NE
this evening and stays N to NW for Saturday. KHKY remains on the
north side through the period. KAVL will see S wind become NNW and
gusty overnight into Saturday. Can't rule out some LLWS at KCLT this
evening and winds turn northeasterly and low level westerly jet
develops. However, chance not high enough to include for now.

Outlook: Unsettled weather will return on Sunday, with rain showers
likely, along with associated intermittent restrictions.
Drying/improving conditions are looking more likely Monday through
mid-week.

Confidence Table...

            19-01Z        01-07Z        07-13Z        13-18Z
KCLT       High  87%     Med   66%     Med   67%     High  85%
KGSP       Med   77%     High  83%     Med   72%     High 100%
KAVL       High  86%     Med   73%     Med   70%     High  92%
KHKY       High  82%     Med   78%     Med   61%     Med   77%
KGMU       High  81%     High  88%     Med   73%     High 100%
KAND       High  83%     High  95%     High  92%     High  82%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...RWH
SHORT TERM...CSH
LONG TERM...Munroe
AVIATION...RWH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
401 PM EST Fri Mar 1 2019

NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509-022115-
Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Graham-
Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson-
Caldwell Mountains-Burke Mountains-McDowell Mountains-
Rutherford Mountains-Polk Mountains-
401 PM EST Fri Mar 1 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Isolated thunderstorms are possible through this evening. The main
threat will be cloud to ground lightning with some storms capable of
producing strong gusty winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

A strong cold front will likely bring periods of moderate to heavy
rain will fall across the western Carolinas and northeast Georgia
beginning Sunday morning and continuing through the evening. Isolated
to scattered thunderstorms are also possible during the afternoon and
evening hours, mainly along and south of I-85. Ponding of water in
urban areas is possible and some area streams may reach or exceed
bankfull levels.

Advisory level northwest winds are possible especially across higher
elevations sometime late Tuesday into Wednesday behind a secondary
cold front. The combination of gusty winds and unseasonable cold
conditions may support dangerously cold wind chills.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-
506-508-510-SCZ001>014-019-022115-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Alexander-Iredell-
Davie-Catawba-Rowan-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-
Union-Greater Caldwell-Greater Burke-Eastern McDowell-
Greater Rutherford-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-
Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-
Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-Anderson-Abbeville-
Laurens-Chester-Greenwood-
401 PM EST Fri Mar 1 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Isolated thunderstorms are possible through this evening. The main
threat will be cloud to ground lightning with some storms capable of
producing strong gusty winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

A strong cold front will likely bring periods of moderate to heavy
rain will fall across the western Carolinas and northeast Georgia
beginning Sunday morning and continuing through the evening. Isolated
to scattered thunderstorms are also possible during the afternoon and
evening hours, mainly along and south of I-85. Ponding of water in
urban areas is possible and some area streams may reach or exceed
bankfull levels.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
428 PM EST FRI MAR 1 2019

GAZ018-026-028-012200-
Hart GA-Franklin GA-Stephens GA-
428 PM EST FRI MAR 1 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT FRANKLIN...SOUTHEASTERN STEPHENS
AND NORTHWESTERN HART COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM EST...

At 428 PM EST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 5
miles west of Carnesville, moving east at 25 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Carnesville, Lavonia, Gumlog, Canon, Bowersville, Martin, Avalon,
Tugaloo State Park, Victoria Bryant State Park and Royston.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail will be possible in these
areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Gusty winds can blow down trees that are dead, or that have weakened
root systems. Outdoor furniture and similar items can be tossed
around if not anchored. Seek shelter indoors.

&&

LAT...LON 3432 8339 3433 8339 3439 8338 3443 8338
      3446 8340 3447 8341 3448 8341 3452 8309
      3450 8307 3450 8306 3449 8305 3429 8305
TIME...MOT...LOC 2128Z 271DEG 23KT 3439 8332

ARK

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