NWS Wilmington, NC wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 4, 6:20 PM EST, 19 hours 50 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jun 4, 6:20 PM EST, 19 hours 50 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
720 PM EDT Tue Jun 4 2019
.SYNOPSIS...
A warm, humid, and unsettled pattern will develop, as an upper
trough approaching, helps direct tropical moisture from the
Gulf of Mexico over the Carolinas, in the upcoming period.
Occasional downpours and excessive rain will become possible by
late weekend and early next week, as the slow moving system is
combined with tropical moisture and humidity over the area, and
strong June sun energy.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 3 PM Tuesday...Seeing showers/TSTMs over Williamsburg,
Florence Counties this afternoon. Expect the SW part of our CWA
to be the only area to see precip the next few hours...given
much more available moisture and some marginal instability in
that zone. The NE half of our CWA will remain dry. Most of, if
not all of, tonight should be dry although will need to watch
areas west of a Myrtle Beach to Lumberton line late and into Wed
morning for a few showers...as moisture associated with old
front returns north as surface high pressure begins pushing
offshore to our NE. Lows tonight will be seasonable to a degree
or two above normal with light SE/S winds, in the upper 60s
except mid 60s far NE sections.
The beginning of many days of enhanced precip chances ahead
really begins on Wednesday. Return flow will gradually get
better established around offshore high pressure. Lift from 850
WAA combined with low level moisture convergence will be
maximized for our inland counties tomorrow, and have denoted
that with a decent PoP gradient. Otherwise expect increasing
cloudiness and temps in the upper 80s inland/mid 80s coast.
Seeing some signs in latest guidance that afternoon/evening
activity will drift towards the coast Wed night as sfc trough
nears. Lows will continue to warm tomorrow night with this
pattern and likely come in several degrees above normal (low
70s).
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 3 PM Tuesday...Broken line of showers and isolated TSTMs
to be marching slowly off the coast daybreak Thursday, not sure
how strong this feature will be through diurnal cooling, but at
least a chance of rain Thursday, residual boundaries, and re-
sparking with June heating. The previous short-wave ridge looks
more flat with successive model runs so, not looking as hot
Thursday, but still a couple degrees above climatology,
scattered convection.
Friday, we appear to be favorably positioned in a zonal stream
or 'river' of high precipitable water content, as an upper low
over the Arklatex, guides soupy air N and E into the parched
Carolinas. Series of upper perturbations will assist upward
motion, through Friday, in concert with PWAT values cresting 2".
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 3 PM Tuesday...Brief drying Saturday is trending moreso
in models now, as a cold front from the north dips into the area
and shifts the rain focus farther S and W, deeper into NE SC.
This only a brief dry wrinkle, as the area becomes overwhelmed
with an injection of high precipitable water, through early next
week. The translation of the upper trough and surface low across
the area Sunday through Tuesday, looks to be a good set up to
greatly reduce rainfall deficits, and excessive rains may become
a problem in this period.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 00Z...Isolated thunder quickly coming to an end with the loss
of daytime heating for the remainder of this evening. Overnight,
skies will remain mainly clear with some scattered mid-level clouds
possible. By morning, expect some areas of stratus, with ground fog
in areas that saw precip this afternoon. Clouds will be prevalent
across the area tomorrow, mainly SCT low-level Cu with BKN mid-
levels. Moisture will be on the increase and this will help to
initiate scattered to widespread convection across the CWA after
18Z. Gusty southerly winds will return as a warm front pushes north
across the area.
Extended Outlook...Isolated convection Wed PM will increase in
coverage Wed night thru Sat with periodic MVFR/IFR conditions likely
from the pcpn.
&&
.MARINE...
As of 3 PM Tuesday...No significant changes to previous forecast
with E becoming SE/S winds at or below 15kt tonight into early
Wed as high pressure moves offshore to our NE. Strongest
winds/seas over our SC waters where pres gradient tightest. S
winds are forecast to ramp up a bit tomorrow PM up to 20kt as
offshore high pres interacts with inland troughing. Associated
short period waves will mix with minor 9s SE trade swell to
produce mostly 3-4 combined seas.
Thursday through Sunday SW winds will transition to SE, as an
upper trough picks up the remnant moisture of a Gulf tropical
circulation, and brings it across the Carolina coasts this
weekend and early next week. SE winds over the weekend around
15 kt should build seas to at least 4 feet coupled with TSTMs
about the area, so radar updates a great idea. Winds and seas
are almost always higher in and near TSTMs, life-jackets.
The ocean spectrum late week and weekend features a mix of SE
waves 2-3 feet every 9 seconds, and SW waves 1 to 3 feet every
5 seconds. If the surface low become stronger than forecast,
both these wave trains will increase in height, and a steeper
wave amplitude.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 3 PM Tuesday...Have issued Coastal Flood Advisory again
for Coastal New Hanover, Coastal Pender, and the Lower Cape
Fear in Inland New Hanover given latest ETSS/ESTOFS guidance for
this evening's high tide, associated with the new moon and
onshore flow. The waters south of Cape Fear to South Santee
River will remain just below minor coastal flood thresholds.
This will likely occur again near Downtown Wilmington Wednesday
evening/night, but looks like the threat will begin to wane for
Coastal New Hanover/Pender as we get a little more removed from
the New Moon that occurred yesterday.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT Wednesday through
Wednesday evening for SCZ054-056.
NC...Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT Wednesday through
Wednesday evening for NCZ106-108.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106-
108.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for NCZ107.
MARINE...None.
&&
SYNOPSIS...8
NEAR TERM...MCW
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...Colby
AVIATION...21
MARINE...MCW/8
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MCW