A NW flow aloft brought a mesoscale convective system, which originated in the Midwest on 6/21, SE across the Midlands of SC during the early morning hours of 6/22, producing widespread wind damage.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS CAE wrote it up.
A NW flow aloft brought a mesoscale convective system, which originated in the Midwest on 6/21, SE across the Midlands of SC during the early morning hours of 6/22, producing widespread wind damage.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Columbia, SC wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 22, 1:14 AM EST, 1 hour 12 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 214 AM EDT Sat Jun 22 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A frontal boundary will remain in the forecast area through tonight bringing a possibility of potentially severe thunderstorms. The front will become diffuse under upper ridging early next week and this pattern supports mainly scattered afternoon thunderstorms and above normal temperatures. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... The main concern is a possibility of thunderstorms with damaging wind and hail. A mesoscale convective system in the northwest flow will track through the forecast area during the early morning hours. There has been a satellite trend of somewhat warming cloud tops and diminishing lightning but there is a concern strong wind gusts may still occur in the forecast area. An instability gradient exists across the forecast area from northeast to southwest with the greatest instability in the southwest early this morning. Surface-based LI values were near -6 in the CSRA. This instability plus the analysis showing h85 moisture advection and h5 cold advection indicates the storms may maintain some intensity despite nocturnal cooling and the dryness in the water vapor imagery. The main concern is strong wind gusts because of moderate instability and the dry mid-level air aiding downdrafts. Upstream reports have generally indicated gusts of 40 to 50 mph with this system. Recovery of moisture and instability will likely occur behind this morning's mesoscale convective system later today. There should be continued low-level convergence into a lingering boundary. The models depict a mid-level shortwave troughing sinking southeastward into the area this afternoon and lingering tonight. The NAM and GFS indicate extreme instability with surface-based LI values -8 to -12. The greatest instability was depicted in the south section. Forecast soundings indicate a low- to mid-level cap breaking with heating this afternoon. The instability indicates some of the thunderstorms will have damaging wind and hail. The shear will be mainly uni-directional so the threat will be mainly straight-line wind although if the extreme instability does develop then a tornado is possible. The high-resolution models have a high spread with the timing of most intense convection. We leaned toward the ARW with the timing because this model has had a somewhat better handle with convection early this morning. Precipitable water is forecast to peak around 2 inches. Heavy downpours may occur but with the northwest flow and storm movement there may be a diminished flood threat. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Upper level ridge extending from the upper Gulf Coast into the Ohio Valley will gradually shift east through Sunday and Sunday night. Meanwhile at the surface, a rather diffuse front will linger over the area. A series of upper disturbances and potentially rounds of convection could continue to track across the area within the northwest flow aloft along the periphery of the ridge. The greatest potential for showers and thunderstorms will come in the mid- afternoon through early evening time frame. Will maintain chance PoPs across the area. With at least moderate instability in place and dry air aloft, there is the potential for some strong if not isolated severe thunderstorms. High temperatures have been adjusted downward another degree or so into the upper 80s and lower 90s based on latest model trends, which seem reasonable given the expected cloud cover and potential for showers. Lows Sunday night will be in the lower 70s. The upper ridge axis shifts east over the region on Monday as the low level flow shifts southerly in advance of an approaching cold front. Increased subsidence over the area should limit the coverage of any convection during the day, but still some isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible with sufficient daytime heating and moisture. The ridge axis shifts east of the area Monday night, allowing a cold front to shift southeast into the area. The front could provide a focus for isolated convection Monday night, but the potential for severe weather appears low given limited instability. Monday still looks to be the warmest day of the week given strong subsidence and compressional heating ahead of the front, with highs in the mid to upper 80s. Mild temperatures are expected Monday night, with lows in the lower to mid 70s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Upper ridging will become established over the western Atlantic during the Long Term period, resulting in a more typical summertime pattern. Generally expect isolated to scattered convection each day, with increasing coverage possible toward the end of the week as Atlantic moisture advects into the region. There is even some model support for nocturnal convection so will maintain at least some rain chances during the nighttime periods. Temperatures appear to be near to slightly above normal through the period. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... There will be restrictions at times in thunderstorms during the 24-hour TAF period. Severe wind gusts and hail are possible. Outside of scattered to numerous thunderstorms expect mainly VFR conditions as indicated by the NAM MOS and GFS MOS and LAMP. The GFS LAMP suggested general wind gusts around 18 knots this afternoon. Expect restrictions associated with a mesoscale convective systems tracking southeastward and through the area early this morning. There has been a satellite trend of somewhat warming cloud tops and diminishing lightning but there is a concern strong wind gusts may still occur in the forecast area. An instability gradient exists across the forecast area from northeast to southwest with the greatest instability in the southwest early this morning. Surface-based LI values were near -6 in the CSRA. This instability plus the analysis showing h85 moisture advection and h5 cold advection indicates the storms may maintain some intensity despite nocturnal cooling and the dryness in the water vapor imagery. The main concern is strong wind gusts because of moderate instability and the dry mid- level air aiding downdrafts. Recovery of moisture and instability will likely occur behind this morning's mesoscale convective system later today. There should be continued low-level convergence into a lingering boundary. The models depict a mid-level shortwave troughing sinking southeastward into the area this afternoon and lingering tonight. The NAM and GFS indicate extreme instability with surface-based LI values -8 to -12. The greatest instability was depicted in the south section. Forecast soundings indicate a low- to mid-level cap breaking with heating this afternoon. The instability indicates some of the thunderstorms will have damaging wind and hail. The shear will be mainly uni- directional so the threat will be mainly straight-line wind although if the extreme instability does develop then a tornado is possible. The high-resolution models have a high spread with the timing of most intense convection. There was too much uncertainty with the timing to include thunderstorms in the terminal forecasts later in the forecast period. .EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Scattered mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms and associated restrictions will occur during the period. A few locations may have early morning stratus and fog. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. &&
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Columbia SC 1030 PM EDT Fri Jun 21 2019 GAZ040-063>065-077-SCZ016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041-115-116- 230230- Lincoln-McDuffie-Columbia-Richmond-Burke-Chesterfield-McCormick- Newberry-Fairfield-Kershaw-Edgefield-Saluda-Lexington-Richland-Lee- Aiken-Sumter-Barnwell-Orangeburg-Calhoun-Clarendon-Bamberg- Northern Lancaster-Southern Lancaster- 1030 PM EDT Fri Jun 21 2019 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Midlands of South Carolina and the Central Savannah River area of Georgia. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Thunderstorms are possible during the early morning and sunrise hours mainly in the western Midlands and northern Central Savannah River Area. Strong and gusty winds are possible however the potential for severe thunderstorms is low. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. There is the potential for severe thunderstorms during the afternoon and early evening on Saturday. The primary hazard will be damaging straight-line winds, but large hail could also occur. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Columbia SC
226 AM EDT Sat Jun 22 2019
SCZ018-220645-
McCormick SC-
226 AM EDT Sat Jun 22 2019
...Strong Thunderstorms Will Impact Portions of McCormick County
Until 245 AM EDT....
...Boaters on Lake Strom Thurmond Should Seek Safe Harbor...
At 226 AM EDT...National Weather Service doppler radar indicated
strong thunderstorms along a line extending from near Iva to near
Bobby Brown State Park, moving east at 50 mph.
HAZARD...strong winds 45 to 55 mph.
IMPACT...expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
light, unsecured objects.
Some locations in the path of these storms include...
McCormick, Mccormick County Airport, Willington, Mount Carmel Park,
Bordeaux, Mount Carmel, Baker Creek State Park, Leroy's Ferry
Recreation Area and Long Cane Creek Picnic Area.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Boaters on Lake Strom Thurmond should move to shore and seek shelter.
Strong, erratic wind gusts and lightning are possible. If you can
hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.
Persons in campgrounds should seek shelter until these storms pass.
These storms may intensify. Monitor NOAA Weather Radio, local radio
and television stations for additional information and possible
warnings from the National Weather Service.
&&
LAT...LON 3407 8253 3408 8248 3406 8245 3406 8233
3397 8230 3402 8225 3398 8220 3399 8214
3394 8212 3393 8216 3388 8216 3386 8214
3390 8248 3394 8251 3395 8256 3402 8259
TIME...MOT...LOC 0626Z 275DEG 43KT 3433 8270 3398 8252
JAQThe Columbia radar (KCAE), 74 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 07:26 UTC.
21 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Trees down on SC 34 and Old Landfill Rd.
Trees down on SC 34 and SC 121.
Trees down on Interstate 26 at mile marker 62.
Trees down along Mt. Pleasant Rd near SC 39.
A line of severe thunderstorms produced widespread damaging winds, knocking down numerous trees over a large swath, many of which blocked roadways.
A line of severe thunderstorms produced widespread damaging winds, knocking down numerous trees over a large swath, many of which blocked roadways.
Trees down on Poole Rd and John Nunn Hwy.
Trees down on Clinton Church Rd and Nantuckett Rd.
Trees down on Wire Rd and New Bridge Rd.
A line of severe thunderstorms produced widespread damaging winds over a large swath, downing numerous trees.
A line of severe thunderstorms produced widespread damaging winds over a large swath, downing numerous trees.
Trees down on Ninety 6 Rd and Eugene St.
ASOS unit at Columbia Metropolitan Airport measured a peak wind gust of 51 knots (59 mph) at 0420 EDT (0320 EST).
A line of severe thunderstorms produced widespread damaging winds over a large swath, downing numerous trees.
A line of severe thunderstorms produced widespread damaging winds over a large swath, downing numerous trees.
Tree down along US Hwy 15 near Martinville Church Rd.
Tree in roadway Hwy 210 near Oregon St. Time estimated.
Report, received via social media, of a large tree down on Boyer Rd in Holly Hill. Time estimated.
Tree in roadway along N Brewington Rd near US Hwy 301.
Tree down on Pudding Swamp Rd.
Tree down on Lynches River Rd near Yarborough Rd.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in South Carolina in 2019Every state in 2019This day in weather historyWarnings in South Carolina, June 2019
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-10-01. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 823844, 823845, 823846, 823847, 823855, 823856, 823848, 823849, 823850, 823858, 823859, 823851, 823857, 823860, 823862, 823864, 823852, 823853, 823854, 823865, 823866.