Isolated thunderstorms developed over Upstate South Carolina during the evening. One of the storms produced brief damaging winds in the Greer area.
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The episode as NWS GSP wrote it up.
Isolated thunderstorms developed over Upstate South Carolina during the evening. One of the storms produced brief damaging winds in the Greer area.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 22, 6:35 PM EST, 23 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
735 PM EDT Thu Aug 22 2019
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will approach the western Carolinas on Friday and drift
south through the forecast area on Saturday. Along and ahead of
the front ample shower and thunderstorm coverage is expected while
a ridge of cool and moist high pressure builds into the region
behind the front for Sunday and Monday. Unsettled weather will
persist into the middle of next week ahead of the next cold front
with some drier weather possible by Thursday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 630 PM EDT Thursday: Still seeing quite a bit of convection
across the area, especially in areas that weren't worked over
earlier in the day with some push from a SW-ward moving outflow
boundary from earlier convection working across the Upstate. CAPE
still >1000J/kg, though not much dCAPE to work with, and CAMs want
to keep convection bubbling basically all night. Have made some
adjustments to pops but really kind of hard to refine them too much,
just given the environment. Other updates are for aviation
parameters.
Otherwise, the upper trough centered over the Great Lakes region
will dig into the southeastern CONUS tonight, increasing upper
divergence over the CWA. At the same time, about 20-25kt of SWly
850mb flow will kick up over the souther Appalachians. Combining all
of this with PWATs near 2", forcing for showers will linger through
the overnight hours and possibly into tomorrow morning as reflected
in most of today's CAMs.
The surface front ahead of the upper trough will continue to lay
across the forecast area tomorrow, and with more little vort maxes
moving through the upper flow ahead of the digging trough, expect
convection to break out tomorrow afternoon once again, generally
favoring the high terrain but gradually moving into the NC Piedmont
and northern Upstate through the late afternoon. Severe chances
don't look quite as good tomorrow due to less insolation and more
limited SBCAPE development, but another convectively active day is
in store nonetheless. Both max and min temperatures will hover a few
degrees above average through tomorrow.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 245 pm EDT Thursday: Model guidance is in agreement on
speeding up the arrival and passage of the long-advertised cold
front, which is now expected to clear much of the area by early
Saturday afternoon. We shall see how the forecast evolves over
the next couple of cycles, but the faster progression of the front
will lead to decreased instability across most of the forecast area
for Saturday, save perhaps the southern and western most counties
along the upper Savannah River Valley and the southwest mountains.
However, the airmass behind the front will not be appreciably
drier for Saturday or Sunday with abundant moisture through the
column across the forecast area and precipitable water values
near or slightly above 2", which is near the climatological max
for this time of year. A strong low-level Atlantic Ocean fetch,
centered around 875mb, will develop during the day on Saturday
and strengthen into Sunday which will allow for persistent moist
upglide over the shallow but abnormally cooler airmass at the
surface, keeping us cloudy and wet.
Forcing associated with the frontal convergence and modest upper
divergence associated with the 250mb jet centered over the northeast
US should enhance shower coverage across the area for Saturday,
when we anticipate heavy rainfall will be at least an isolated
concern. However, with the column remaining moist and warm aloft,
lapse rates will be very unfavorable for even elevated convection,
especially across North Carolina where the wedge will be strongest.
Any convection that can manage to develop, especially across the
southwestern mountains and northeast Georgia, will be able to tap
into those high PWs and be capable of short-fused heavy rainfall.
Therefore, runoff concerns do exist and flash flooding remains a
concern, albeit we expect the threat to remain fairly isolated at
this time. Keep in mind that much of the Upstate and northeast
Georgia has been abnormally dry for the past 30-90 days and a
widespread 1-2 inches of rainfall would be welcomed, as long as
we don't get it all at once.
As alluded to above, max temperatures will fall to 6-8 degrees
below normal on Saturday and 8-10 degrees below normal for Sunday
with temperatures struggling to reach the upper 70s across the
non-mountain regions. Dewpoints in the lower 70s on Saturday will
drop a bit into the middle 60s for Sunday, but it will remain damp
into early Monday.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 245pm EDT Thursday: The persistent upper trough responsible
for the miserable weekend weather will be slow to depart the
northeast US early next week. Our region will remain in generally
southwest flow aloft as weak upper ridging propagates into the
upper Ohio Valley ahead of a shortwave trough over the Mississippi
River Valley. The low-level Atlantic fetch and resultant upglide
should weaken on Monday, but the column will not dry out appreciably
until Tuesday and PWs will stay elevated ahead of the next system.
Therefore, shower chances are maintained in the forecast on Monday
across the region.
The approach of the next trough and attendant cold front is
expected to keep our weather unsettled into Wednesday, with
frontal passage possible by Thursday. The potential development
of a weak low off the Atlantic coast and its movement north and
east along the coast may work to produce subsident (sinking) flow
over at least part of our area later Monday into Tuesday and help
to temporarily reduce instability, column moisture content, and,
consequently, shower and thunderstorm chances especially across
the Piedmont until the front approaches on Wednesday. However,
there is quite a bit of uncertainty with the development and
strength of this low so PoP chances were only modestly reduced
across our eastern counties. Regardless, the erosion of the
early-week wedge on Tuesday with low-level winds veering to the
south in advance of the approaching cold front will allow for
increasing max temperatures into Wednesday. Max temperatures
3-6 degrees below normal Monday and Tuesday will rebound to 2-4
degrees above normal for Wednesday and Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: While NC TAFs saw plenty of TSRA already,
still seeing bubbling development that could impact the SC TAFs and
even though the environment in NC has stabilized somewhat, could
still see some convective impacts. Have generally kept at least VCSH
everywhere but TEMPO TSRA still at KGSP/KGMU with outflow boundary
moving SW across the Upstate TAFs. As with this morning, would not
be surprised to see another round of mountain valley fog/low stratus
impacting KAVL and possibly KHKY especially given this afternoon's
convection. Some semblance of VCSH kept for the most part overnight,
and expect more widespread SHRA/TSRA again tomorrow. Wedge front
sagging south will help to stabilize the NC TAFs later in the
period, and have tried to narrow down best timing for VCTS vs.
PROB30 during the afternoon (but with VCTS basically all day at
KAVL). Expect SW winds to prevail tonight and tomorrow, with a shift
to NE during the out periods at KCLT as the wedge front pushes in.
Outlook: SHRA/TSRA chances will remain across the area as a front
lays over the area from the north and stalls through the weekend.
Some morning fog and low stratus will be possible each day,
especially in the mountain valleys. Cold air damming will set up
over the weekend, keeping lower cigs possible.
Confidence Table...
23-05Z 05-11Z 11-17Z 17-18Z
KCLT High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100%
KGSP High 100% High 100% High 95% High 100%
KAVL High 100% Med 75% Low 35% High 100%
KHKY High 100% Med 75% High 95% High 100%
KGMU High 100% High 95% High 100% High 100%
KAND High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100%
The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:
www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.
&&
SYNOPSIS...JMP
NEAR TERM...Carroll/TDP
SHORT TERM...JMP
LONG TERM...JMP
AVIATION...TDPHazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 402 PM EDT Thu Aug 22 2019 GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065- 068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-232015- Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Avery-Alexander- Iredell-Davie-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Catawba- Rowan-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania- Henderson-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union- Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke- McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains- Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains- Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee- Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York- Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Chester-Greenwood- 402 PM EDT Thu Aug 22 2019 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont North Carolina, western North Carolina and Upstate South Carolina. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Scattered thunderstorms will continue into early evening. Any of these thunderstorms will have the potential to produce cloud-to- ground lightning strikes, locally heavy rainfall, and gusty winds. A few thunderstorms could become severe, with damaging wind gusts or quarter size hail, especially along and east of the Interstate 77 corridor. Localized flooding will be possible in any areas affected by multiple thunderstorms. Isolated thunderstorms may continue into the overnight hours. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. Abundant moisture will set up over the region on Friday ahead of a cold front approaching from the north. Instability in the warm and moist air ahead of the front may contribute to locally excessive rainfall, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours on Friday. Flooding of low-lying and poor drainage areas will be possible at any locations repeatedly affected by showers and thunderstorms. Small streams could approach bankfull where heavy rain falls. These conditions will linger into Saturday as the front slowly moves south across the area. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are requested to forward any reports of large hail, damaging winds, tornadoes, or flash flooding to our office.
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 715 PM EDT Thu Aug 22 2019 SCZ008-222345- Cherokee SC- 715 PM EDT Thu Aug 22 2019 ...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL CHEROKEE COUNTY UNTIL 745 PM EDT... At 715 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 5 miles south of Gaffney, moving northeast at 15 mph. Locations to be impacted include... Gaffney, Draytonville, Thicketty and Cherokee Falls. Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail will be possible in these areas. LAT...LON 3492 8170 3499 8175 3512 8159 3497 8150 TIME...MOT...LOC 2315Z 236DEG 13KT 3500 8167 LANE
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
719 PM EDT Thu Aug 22 2019
NCZ052-222345-
Haywood NC-
719 PM EDT Thu Aug 22 2019
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN HAYWOOD COUNTY
UNTIL 745 PM EDT...
At 719 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles northeast of Waynesville, or near Clyde, moving northeast at 10
mph.
Locations to be impacted include...
Clyde, Lake Junaluska and Canton.
Wind gusts up to 45 mph and half inch hail will be possible in these
areas.
LAT...LON 3567 8288 3564 8287 3563 8285 3561 8285
3563 8281 3560 8280 3559 8278 3558 8278
3550 8291 3553 8298 3569 8292
TIME...MOT...LOC 2319Z 210DEG 10KT 3558 8291
LANESpecial Weather Statement National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 728 PM EDT Thu Aug 22 2019 SCZ007-230000- Spartanburg SC- 728 PM EDT Thu Aug 22 2019 ...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN SPARTANBURG COUNTY UNTIL 800 PM EDT... At 728 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 11 miles northwest of Spartanburg, or near Inman, moving northeast at 15 mph. Locations to be impacted include... Lyman, Wellford, Inman, Lake Bowen and Duncan. Wind gusts up to 45 mph and pea size hail will be possible in these areas. LAT...LON 3494 8214 3501 8221 3511 8207 3500 8198 TIME...MOT...LOC 2328Z 230DEG 11KT 3502 8211 LANE
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 731 PM EDT Thu Aug 22 2019 NCZ064-230000- Transylvania NC- 731 PM EDT Thu Aug 22 2019 ...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL TRANSYLVANIA COUNTY UNTIL 800 PM EDT... At 731 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10 miles southwest of Brevard, or near Rosman, moving northeast at 15 mph. Locations to be impacted include... Rosman, Gorges State Park and Connestee. Wind gusts up to 45 mph and pea size hail will be possible in these areas. LAT...LON 3506 8292 3511 8294 3523 8279 3511 8270 TIME...MOT...LOC 2331Z 235DEG 13KT 3512 8286 LANE
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 741 PM EDT Thu Aug 22 2019 SCZ008-009-230015- York SC-Cherokee SC- 741 PM EDT Thu Aug 22 2019 ...A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT WESTERN YORK AND SOUTHEASTERN CHEROKEE COUNTIES UNTIL 815 PM EDT... At 741 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated the leading edge of a cluster of thunderstorms along a line extending from 10 miles east of Gaffney to 13 miles southwest of York, and moving east at 10 mph. Locations to be impacted include... Sharon, Hickory Grove, Smyrna, Kings Creek and Cherokee Falls. Wind gusts up to 45 mph and pea size hail will be possible in these areas. LAT...LON 3511 8138 3487 8132 3487 8150 3506 8155 TIME...MOT...LOC 2341Z 255DEG 7KT 3505 8148 3491 8144 LANE
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
751 PM EDT Thu Aug 22 2019
SCZ007-230015-
Spartanburg SC-
751 PM EDT Thu Aug 22 2019
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT WEST CENTRAL SPARTANBURG COUNTY
UNTIL 815 PM EDT...
At 751 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 12
miles west of Spartanburg, or over Duncan, moving northeast at 15
mph.
Locations to be impacted include...
Duncan, Lyman, Wellford, GSP Airport, Greer and Moore.
Wind gusts up to 50 mph and dime size hail will be possible in these
areas.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Gusty winds can blow down trees that are dead, or that have weakened
root systems. Outdoor furniture and similar items can be tossed
around if not anchored. Seek shelter indoors.
&&
LAT...LON 3492 8223 3495 8222 3496 8222 3505 8205
3488 8198 3488 8220
TIME...MOT...LOC 2351Z 245DEG 14KT 3493 8215
LANEThe Greer radar (KGSP), 6 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 23:56 UTC.
1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Fire dept reported two trees blown down at the intersection Of East Poinsett St and J Verne Smith Parkway.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in South Carolina in 2019Every state in 2019This day in weather historyWarnings in South Carolina, August 2019
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 854423.