An amplifying TUTT promoted unsettled weather that resulted in enhanced shower and thunderstorm activity. This activity resulted in flash flood across western PR.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS SJU wrote it up.
An amplifying TUTT promoted unsettled weather that resulted in enhanced shower and thunderstorm activity. This activity resulted in flash flood across western PR.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS San Juan, PR wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 29, 9:32 AM AST, 3 hours 13 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
932 AM AST Wed May 29 2019
.UPDATE...There is a high risk for flooding and mudslides across
the local islands, particularly east, southeast and northwest
Puerto Rico as well as the USVI as plenty of moisture and
favorable upper level dynamics - which are associated with an
upper level trough - combine over the area. As a result, continue
to expect showers and thunderstorms across eastern Puerto Rico
and the US Virgin Islands at times with showers and thunderstorms
developing in the afternoon across central and west Puerto Rico.
Today, rainfall totals should range between 1 and 3 inches with
isolated higher amounts.
On Thursday, the highest risk for showers and thunderstorms as
well as the potential for flooding are expected across the
eastern half of Puerto Rico and the USVI.
&&
.AVIATION...Periods of MVFR conditions will remain possible at
all PR and USVI TAF sites in SHRA/TSRA throughout the day. Winds
out of the east to southeast at 10 to 15 kts with higher gusts
likely due to TSRA. Mostly VFR conds are expected at the Leeward
TAF sites with VCSH likely.
&&
.MARINE...Hazards over seas continue to be lightning and gusty
winds near thunderstorms. Seas below 5 feet across most of the
local waters, although could be locally higher near storms. The
northerly swell will continue to subside.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 425 AM AST Wed May 29 2019/
SYNOPSIS...A Flash Flood Watch is in effect through Thursday
evening. A weakening upper level trough across the western
Caribbean will prevail through most of today with an upper ridge
over the local islands. By Thursday, an upper level trough
develops to the northwest of the local islands, with its axis
just west of Puerto Rico. The available moisture will remain
above normal for the next several days today and Thursday. Weak
surface high pressure will continue to cause light to moderate
east to southeast wind flow for the next few days. Unsettled
weather is expected today and Thursday across Puerto Rico, and
also for the U.S. Virgin Islands, especially on Thursday.
SHORT TERM...Today through Friday...
The main concern with this forecast continues to be the potential
for flooding, rapid rivers rises and mudslides in high terrain
areas.
Deep layered tropical moisture and southeasterly winds will remain
entrenched across the region over the next several days. A mid to
upper-level trough will continue to deepen across the northwestern
Caribbean today through Thursday. This feature will increase upper-
level instability over the region. Also, a weak upper-level jet with
winds of 30 to 50 kts will develop near Puerto Rico today through
Friday. The aforementioned factors above will support development of
deep convection and thunderstorms across Puerto Rico and the U.S.
Virgin Islands mainly during the afternoon.
Furthermore, soils remain saturated from the previous days'
rainfall. Over the last several day's rainfall amounts have ranged
from 1.00 to 3.00 inches across most areas of Puerto Rico. Over the
last couple of days there as been reports of rivers flooding out of
their banks and mudslides in higher terrain.
Therefore, a high flood potential is expected today and Thursday as
a result of the deep tropical moisture and instability aiding in
the development of showers and thunderstorms across most of Puerto
Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands today and Thursday.
Friday, low-level moisture is expected to diminish slightly with
weak troughiness remaining over the region. Local and diurnal
effects will cause showers and isolated thunderstorms to develop
during the afternoon.
LONG TERM...Saturday through Thursday...
The available moisture is expected to be a bit lower
on Saturday and for the next several days after, but still above
normal. The upper trough that is expected to affect the local
islands today and Thursday will continue moving east and probably
have its axis east of PR by Saturday, but enhanced instability is
still possible for the USVI. That said, showers and thunderstorms
will still be possible over PR, but if the models are to verify,
the instability and chances of thunderstorms will be better east
and near the USVI. This upper trough will continue to slowly move
east but then stalling over the area while weakening, yet still
causing a diffluent pattern in the upper levels. For that reason
the global models still have some rain over the local islands but
the area of enhanced rainfall just east of the local islands.
The confidence on the exact location this far out in the forecast
is low. That said, it still looks like the unsettled weather with
some showers and thunderstorms could linger into next week.
AVIATION...Mainly VFR conditions should prevail across the local terminals
through 29/16z. SHRA and TS are expected across interior and western
PR between 29/16z and 29/23z, affecting TJMZ, TJBQ, TJSJ and
likely other terminal sites. MVFR to possibly IFR conditions are
possible, especially if the activity moves over the terminals.
Winds out of the east to southeast at 10 to 15 kts with higher
gusts likely due to TSRA.
MARINE...The northerly swell is subsiding and seas are now
expected to be at 5 feet or less. The coastal winds will be mainly
from the east to southeast at 10 to 15 knots. There is a moderate
risk of rip currents for many of the local beaches.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 77 83 74 / 70 60 70 50
STT 86 76 85 75 / 60 60 70 50
&&
.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday evening for Central Interior-
Culebra-Eastern Interior-Mayaguez and Vicinity-North
Central-Northeast-Northwest-Ponce and Vicinity-San Juan and
Vicinity-Southeast-Southwest-Vieques-Western Interior.
VI...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday evening for St Croix-
St.Thomas...St. John...and Adjacent Islands.
&&
UPDATE...OM
AVIATION....OMPerspectivas sobre Condiciones Peligrosas del Tiempo Servicio Nacional de Meteorologia San Juan PR 622 AM AST miercoles 29 de mayo de 2019 AMZ710>745-PRZ001>013-300845- San Juan y Vecindad-Noreste-Sureste- Este Interior- Norte Central-Interior Central-Ponce y Vecindad- Noroeste- Oeste Interior-Mayaguez y Vecindad-Suroeste-Culebra- Vieques-Aguas cercanas y mar afuera del Atlantico y Caribe- 622 AM AST miercoles 29 de mayo de 2019 ...VIGILANCIA DE INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS EN EFECTO HASTA EL JUEVES EN LA NOCHE... Esta perspectiva sobre las condiciones peligrosas del tiempo es para Puerto Rico y las aguas costeras adyacentes del Atlantico. .Dia Uno...Hoy y esta noche .Tronadas...Existe la probabilidad de tronadas con lluvia fuerte y vientos en rafagas breves durante el dia. .Inundaciones...Lluvia de moderada a fuerte pudiera resultar en inundaciones repentinas y deslizamientos, mayormente a traves del cuadrante noroeste de Puerto Rico. Por lo tanto, una vigilancia de inundaciones repentinas hasta el jueves en la noche. .Corrientes marinas...Existe riesgo moderado de corrientes marinas para las playas del norte de Puerto Rico. .Dia dos a siete...jueves a martes Existe riesgo alto de inundaciones repentinas para Puerto Rico hasta el jueves como resultado de aguaceros y tronadas. Lluvias prolongadas pudieran resultar en inundaciones urbanas y de riachuelos, asi como deslizamientos en elevaciones altas. .Comunicado sobre informacion reportada por observadores... No se anticipa activacion amplia de observadores, sin embargo, se les exhorta a los observadores individuales a reportar inundaciones y corrientes marinas al Servicio Nacional de Meteorologia en San Juan. AMZ715-725-VIZ001-002-300845- San Tomas, San John y Islas Adyacentes- Santa Cruz-Aguas cercanas del Atlantico y aguas costeras adyacentes del Caribe- 622 AM AST miercoles 29 de mayo de 2019 Esta perspectiva sobre las condiciones del tiempo peligrosas es para las Islas Virgenes Americanas y las aguas costeras adyacentes. .Dia Uno...Hoy y esta Noche .Tronadas...Existe la posiblidad de tronadas con lluvia fuerte y vientos en rafaga breves a traves de las Islas Virgenes Americanas para hoy. .Inundaciones...Lluvia de moderada a fuerte pudiera resultar en inundaciones repentinas. Por lo tanto, una vigilancia de inundaciones repentinas permanece en efecto hasta el jueves en la noche. .Corrientes marinas...Existe riesgo de bajo a moderado para las playas de las Islas Virgenes Americanas. .Dia dos a siete...jueves a martes Existe riesgo alto de inundaciones repentinas para las Islas Virgenes Americanas hasta el jueves como resultado de aguaceros y tronadas. Lluvias prolongadas pudieran resultar en inundaciones urbanas y de riachuelos, asi como deslizamientos en elevaciones altas. .Comunicado sobre informacion reportada por observadores... Informacion reportada por observadores no sera necesaria.
The San Juan radar (TJUA), 109 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 16:44 UTC.
5 flash flood, 5 flood, 3 thunderstorm wind, 2 debris flow. Local standard time, as filed.
A tree was obstructing Road PR-420 KM 0.5 in Barrio Voladoras sector Lomas.
Power lines down on Road PR-404 KM 2.7 in Barrio Cruz.
Tree down over residence along Road PR-420 KM 4.2 Barrio Plata Sector Vera.
Road PR-111, intersection with Road PR-423 was reported flooded.
Road PR-111 KM 14.5 reported flooded.
Road PR-111 intersection with Road PR-446 reported flooded.
Urban flooding was reported in Calle Betances.
Urban flooding reported along Road PR-111 with intersection with road PR-107.
People trapped in Gozalandia waterfall due to excessive runoff along Rio Guatemala.
Road PR-125 km. 7.1 Barrio Voladoras, three houses flooded.
Mudslide with tree fallen along Road PR- 404 km 2.5 Barrio Cruz, sector Salana.
Mudslide reported near Road PR-112 Barrio Capa near La Siempre Viva Store.
Flooding along Road PR-110 has extended to Barrio Maria in Moca. Road was impassable and closed.
Rio Culebrinas was reported out of its bank and have continued to flood road in Barrio Tablonal, as well as PR-418 and PR-115 between Aguada and Aguadilla.
Highway number 2 in direction from Aguada to Aguadilla was reported flooded. The road is impassable and police closed the road.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Puerto Rico in 2019Every state in 2019This day in weather historyWarnings in Puerto Rico, May 2019
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 831446, 831447, 831450, 829409, 831455, 831457, 831460, 831462, 831463, 829410, 829415, 829420, 831473, 829421, 829422.