Deep tropical moisture combined with daytime heating and local effects to result in enhanced shower and thunderstorm activity across the northwest quadrant of Puerto Rico.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS SJU wrote it up.
Deep tropical moisture combined with daytime heating and local effects to result in enhanced shower and thunderstorm activity across the northwest quadrant of Puerto Rico.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS San Juan, PR wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 28, 11:44 AM AST, 2 hours 46 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service San Juan PR
1144 AM AST Tue May 28 2019
.UPDATE...
Flash Flood Watch in effect for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin
Islands through at least Thursday evening. Abundant tropical
moisture along with favorable atmospheric conditions will result
in periods of moderate to heavy rainfall across portions of Puerto
Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Shower and thunderstorm activity
will move slow due to a light east-southeast steering wind flow.
Soils are already saturated with rivers and small streams running
well above normal levels and any additional rainfall activity
could trigger flooding. In addition, mudslides along steep
terrain are likely through at least Thursday evening.
&&
.AVIATION...
SHRA/TSRA are expected across the local flying area. SHRA/TSRA
will impact terminals from time to time. SCT-BKN ceilings between
FL025-FL080 with locally OVC ceilings. TSRA will impact
TJSJ/TJBQ/TJMZ terminals between 28/16-23z. Winds will continue
around 10 knots mainly from the east to east-southeast and sea
breeze variations.
&&
.MARINE...
A northerly swell will move across the Atlantic Waters increasing
seas between 4 and 6 feet. Elsewhere, expect seas at 5 feet or
less.
There is a high risk of rip currents along the northern beaches of
Puerto Rico and for Botany and Stumpy beach in St Thomas.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 442 AM AST Tue May 28 2019/
SYNOPSIS...Upper level trough across the western Caribbean will
prevail today with an upper ridge over the local islands. This
upper trough will gradually weaken on Wednesday and Thursday while
a broad trough starts strengthening with its axis just west of
Hispaniola. Instability will increase over the local area on
Wednesday and Thursday. Available moisture will remain above
normal for the next several days. Weak surface high pressure will
cause light to moderate east to southeast wind flow for the next
few days. Rainy days are expected through Thursday with the more
significant showers and thunderstorms expected for Wednesday and
Thursday for Puerto Rico, and mainly on Thursday for the U.S.
Virgin Islands.
SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday...
The main concern during the short-term period is flash flooding and
mudslides across the northwest, western, and interior areas of
Puerto Rico over the next several days. Also, flooding is possible
over the eastern, northern, and southern areas of the island too.
The wettest days at this time will be Wednesday and Thursday. Soils
are saturated from previous week rainfall, and with additional
moderate to heavy rainfall over the next several days will cause
rapid river rises and flooding along tributaries. Also, there is
potential that roadways become washed away, and mudslides in higher
terrain. It is important to stay abreast of the evolving situation
and listen to local emergency managers and local government
officials.
The short-term period will be wet and unsettled as a result of deep
layered tropical moisture, significant surface heating, and local
effects. The combined factors above will lead to moderate to heavy
rainfall during the afternoon for most of Puerto Rico and adjacent
islands. Rainfall amounts will range from 1.00 to 2.00 inches with
the possibility for higher amounts in isolated areas. Current
guidance shows precipitable water values ranging from 2.0 to 2.34
inches this ranks in the 99th percentile for the month of May. The
SJU-GFS shows the entire atmospheric column becoming saturated this
afternoon through Thursday. Additionally, light 0 to 3 km winds of 5
kts will cause showers and thunderstorms to move slowly, and
increase the likelihood of flooding.
Wednesday a mid to upper-level trough begins to develop across the
western Atlantic. The mid to upper-level trough is forecast to
continue to deep north of Puerto Rico over the next several days. As
a result it will causes troughiness over Puerto Rico and the adjunct
islands. The combination of troughiness aloft and a weak jet will
increase upper-level instability and divergence aloft over Puerto
Rico during the afternoon. An inhibiting factor that could delay
the onset of showers and thunderstorms and decrease rainfall amounts
are the mid to upper-level clouds. These clouds are from a weak mid
to upper-level trough currently east of the Yucatan Peninsula. This
trough is expected to weaken over the next 12 to 24 hours, however,
if the trough lingers it could cause a slight change to the short
term forecast.
LONG TERM...Friday through Wednesday.
The available moisture is expected to diminish slightly for Friday
and for the days thereafter. However, it will still be near or
slightly above normal. The upper trough that is expected to affect
the local islands on Wednesday and Thursday will continue moving
east and probably have its axis over PR on Friday, which will
cause enhanced instability for areas near and around the USVI.
That said, showers and thunderstorms will still be possible over
PR, but if the models are to verify, the instability and chances
of thunderstorms will be better east and near the USVI. This upper
trough will continue to slowly move east but then stalling over
the area and weakening. For that reason the global models still
have some rain over the local islands but the area of enhanced
rainfall just east of the local islands. Seeing how dependent the
activity seems to be in this upper trough, the confidence on the
exact location this far out in the forecast is low. That said, it
looks like the unsettled weather with some showers and
thunderstorms could linger into early next week.
AVIATION...VFR conds are forecast to continue all across all
terminal sites through 28/16Z with an occasional iso/sct SHRA.
This afternoon SHRA/TSRA are expected to develop over ctrl, W PR
and VCTY TJSJ,TJMZ,TJBQ/TJNR til 29/03Z. Brief MVRF /IFR conds are
possible due to SHRA/TSRA near the local terminal sites. SFC
winds out of the east to southeast at 5 to 10 kts.
MARINE...Northerly swell is causing the local seas to become
choppy and up to 6 feet. Small craft operators are urged to
exercise caution. The local winds will be mainly from the east
to southeast at 10 to 15 knots. There is a high risk of rip
currents today and tonight. Seas are expected to gradually improve
on Wednesday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 76 85 76 / 60 60 60 60
STT 86 77 85 76 / 60 60 60 60
&&
.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for Culebra-Mayaguez
and Vicinity-North Central-Northeast-Northwest-San Juan and
Vicinity-Southeast.
Flash Flood Watch through Thursday evening for Central Interior-
Culebra-Eastern Interior-Mayaguez and Vicinity-North
Central-Northeast-Northwest-Ponce and Vicinity-San Juan and
Vicinity-Southeast-Southwest-Vieques-Western Interior.
VI...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday evening for St Croix-
St.Thomas...St. John...and Adjacent Islands.
High Rip Current Risk until 6 PM AST this evening for
St.Thomas...St. John...and Adjacent Islands.
AM...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday evening for Coastal Waters OF
Southwestern Puerto Rico out 10 NM-Coastal Waters of
Southern Puerto Rico out 10 NM-Coastal Waters of Southern
USVI Vieques and Eastern Puerto Rico out 10 NM.
High Rip Current Risk until 6 PM AST this evening for Coastal
Waters of Southern USVI Vieques and Eastern Puerto Rico out
10 NM.
&&
SHORT TERM...CAM
LONG TERM....OM
AVIATION...CAMPerspectivas sobre Condiciones Peligrosas del Tiempo Servicio Nacional de Meteorologia San Juan PR 1101 AM AST martes 28 de mayo de 2019 AMZ710>745-PRZ001>013-291515- San Juan y Vecindad-Noreste-Sureste- Este Interior- Norte Central-Interior Central-Ponce y Vecindad- Noroeste- Oeste Interior-Mayaguez y Vecindad-Suroeste-Culebra- Vieques-Aguas cercanas y mar afuera del Atlantico y Caribe- 1101 AM AST martes 28 de mayo de 2019 Esta perspectiva sobre las condiciones peligrosas del tiempo es para Puerto Rico y las aguas costeras adyacentes del Atlantico. .Dia Uno...Hoy y esta noche .Tronadas...Existe la probabilidad de tronadas con lluvia fuerte y vientos en rafagas breves a traves de Puerto Rico. Estas tronadas causaran vientos fuertes en rafaga. .Inundaciones...Existe riesgo alto de inundaciones repentinas y deslizamientos de tierra, particularmente sobre el noroeste de Puerto Rico. Una Vigilancia de Inundaciones Repentinas esta en efecto. Oleaje...Se espera oleaje picado de hasta 6 pies a traves de las aguas del Atlantico norte. .Corrientes marinas...Existe riesgo alto de corrientes marinas para las playas del norte de Puerto Rico y Culebrita. .Dia dos a siete...miercoles a lunes Existe riesgo alto de inundaciones repentinas para Puerto Rico hasta el jueves. Cualquier periodo prolongado de lluvias resultara en deslizamientos en areas de terreno empinado, particularmente sobre el centro de Puerto Rico. .Comunicado sobre informacion reportada por observadores... No se anticipa activacion amplia de observadores, sin embargo, se les exhorta a los observadores individuales a reportar inundaciones y corrientes marinas al Servicio Nacional de Meteorologia en San Juan. AMZ715-725-VIZ001-002-291515- San Tomas, San John y Islas Adyacentes- Santa Cruz-Aguas cercanas del Atlantico y aguas costeras adyacentes del Caribe- 1101 AM AST martes 28 de mayo de 2019 Esta perspectiva sobre las condiciones del tiempo peligrosas es para las Islas Virgenes Americanas y las aguas costeras adyacentes. .Dia Uno...Hoy y esta Noche .Tronadas...Existe la posiblidad de tronadas aisladas con lluvia fuerte y periodos breves de vientos en rafaga. .Inundaciones...Existe riesgo moderado de inundaciones repentinas para hoy. .Oleaje...Se espera oleaje picado de hasta 5 ies a traves de las aguas locales. .Corrientes marinas...Existe riesgo alto de corrientes marinas para Stumpy y Botany beach para San Thomas. .Dia dos a siete...miercoles a lunes Se espera riesgo alto de lluvia fuerte a traves de las Islas Virgenes Americanas para el miercoles y el jueves. Porl o tanto, se espera que el riesgo de inundaciones repentinas aumente para mediados de semana .Comunicado sobre informacion reportada por observadores... Informacion reportada por observadores no sera necesaria.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
3 flood, 2 debris flow. Local standard time, as filed.
Callejon Monson Mendez in Barrio Mora was closed due to flooding.
Calle Malasia near Callejon Rodriguez was closed due to flooding.
Calle Casimira Castro in Barrio Bejucos was closed due to flooding.
Mudslide reported on Road PR-445 KM 1.6 in Barrio Voladoras.
Mudslide reported on Road PR-445 KM 5.2 in Barrio Saltos.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Puerto Rico in 2019Every state in 2019This day in weather historyWarnings in Puerto Rico, May 2019
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 826906, 826907, 826908, 826911, 826912.