An upper-level trough and abundant low to mid-level moisture combined with daytime heating and local effects, resulting in enhanced shower and thunderstorm activity across the northwest quadrant of Puerto Rico.
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The episode as NWS SJU wrote it up.
An upper-level trough and abundant low to mid-level moisture combined with daytime heating and local effects, resulting in enhanced shower and thunderstorm activity across the northwest quadrant of Puerto Rico.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS San Juan, PR wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 24, 11:58 AM AST, 2 hours 17 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 1158 AM AST Fri May 24 2019 .UPDATE... A fairly moist southeasterly winds flow across the region, along with the proximity of a mid to upper level trough and subtropical jet segment will continue to favor a fairly wet weather pattern across the region at least through Saturday. Somewhat improving conditions so far expected Sunday and Monday as the upper trough weakens and lift northwards. Still however expect local and diurnal effects along with lingering tropical moisture, to support showers and isolated thunderstorms development across parts of the islands each afternoon. For the rest of today expect shower and thunderstorm development to be focused over central and northwest sections of Puerto Rico. However isolated showers will remain possible elsewhere including around the U.S.Virgin islands. Urban and small stream flooding will remain possible especially in the northwest and along the north coastal areas of PR into the early evening hours. No changes made to the inherited short term forecast package at this time. && .AVIATION UPDATE...No change to previous AVN discussion. SCT-BKN lyrs nr FL030...FL050...FL100. SCT nr FL220 based on latest upper air sounding. L/Lvl wnds fm SE and veering fm S up to FL180...bcmg fm W and incr w/ht ABV. Wdly SCT SHRA ovr coastal waters and en route btw islands. Isold TSRA psbl til 24/23z. && .MARINE UPDATE...No significant changes made to the previous marine discussion at this time. Wind and seas 10 to 15 kts and 4 feet or less respectively during the rest of the day and overnight. Slight increase in winds and seas still expected over the upcoming weekend due to arrival of northerly swell action. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 508 AM AST Fri May 24 2019/ SYNOPSIS... A mid- to upper-level low will dominate local weather conditions through early this weekend. Plenty of tropical moisture will continue across the islands through at least next week. Shower and thunderstorm development is likely each day across portions of the islands. SHORT TERM...Today through Sunday... A mid to upper level trough continues to be the dominant feature during the short term forecast period. Model guidance suggests that this system will cross the forecast area today, maintaining somewhat favorable conditions aloft. These conditions combined with sufficient moisture content--model PW estimates of 1.90 inches--will support the development of showers and thunderstorms. This activity is forecast to cluster over the waters during the morning hours and along the interior and northwestern quadrant of Puerto Rico in the afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms affecting the San Juan metropolitan area cannot be ruled out. Rainfall accumulations between 1-2 inches with isolated higher amounts are expected with this activity. That said, the potential for urban and small stream flooding, as well as mudslides near areas of steep remains remains elevated today. Conditions aloft are to gradually turn unfavorable as the mid to upper level trough continues to drift eastward and away from the region tonight and continuing into the weekend. Although the intensity and areas coverage of showers and thunderstorms are expected to diminish during the weekend, sufficient moisture content supported by diurnal heating and local effects will enhance the development of localized afternoon convection across the interior and western sectors of Puerto Rico each day. Rainfall accumulations are forecast to peak at 1.0-1.5 inches on Saturday and 0.5-1.0 inches on Sunday with isolated higher amounts. Although with a lower potential, the threat for urban and small stream flooding will continue during the weekend. LONG TERM...Monday through Friday... Although a mid- to upper-level ridge is forecast to build across northeast Caribbean, plenty of tropical moisture will move from the Caribbean Sea into the local region increasing the potential for showers and locally induced thunderstorms Monday and Tuesday. Model guidance continues to indicate a weak tropical wave moving off to the south across the Caribbean Sea by Wednesday or Thursday. Another mid- to upper-level trough is forecast to amplify near the region Thursday and Friday. If models are correct, a wet pattern with favorable conditions for shower and thunderstorm development may be possible next week. AVIATION...SHRA/TSRA will result in VCSH/VCTS conds and brief MVFR conditions at TJPS, USVI and Leeward terminals through 24/14Z. Similar conditions with brief MVFR conds possible are expected at TJSJ between 24/14-18Z and TJMZ/TJBQ after 24/18Z. BKN to OVC between FL020-040 expected with this activity. Light and variable winds through 24/14Z, turning from the ESE at 10-15 KT with sea breeze variations and occasional gusts after 23/14Z, particularly near SHRA/TSRA. MARINE... Mariners can expect seas around 4 feet across most of the local waters. A small northerly swell will persist across the Atlantic Waters through at least Saturday. Trade winds will continue from the east to southeast between 10 and 15 knots, although local effects will promote higher winds up to 20 knots each afternoon. A northerly swell will move across the Atlantic Waters early next week. There is a moderate risk of rip currents for some north facing beaches of Puerto Rico. Thunderstorm formation are expected across portions of the coastal waters of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SJU 88 77 89 77 / 50 40 40 40 STT 86 77 88 77 / 60 40 20 30 && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...None. VI...None. AM...None. && SHORT TERM...RAM LONG TERM....RAM
Perspectivas sobre Condiciones Peligrosas del Tiempo Servicio Nacional de Meteorologia San Juan PR 439 AM AST viernes 24 de mayo de 2019 AMZ710>745-PRZ001>013-250845- San Juan y Vecindad-Noreste-Sureste- Este Interior- Norte Central-Interior Central-Ponce y Vecindad- Noroeste- Oeste Interior-Mayaguez y Vecindad-Suroeste-Culebra- Vieques-Aguas cercanas y mar afuera del Atlantico y Caribe- 439 AM AST viernes 24 de mayo de 2019 Esta perspectiva sobre las condiciones peligrosas del tiempo es para Puerto Rico y las aguas costeras adyacentes del Atlantico. .Dia Uno...Hoy y esta noche .Tronadas...Existe la probabilidad de tronadas con lluvia fuerte y vientos en rafagas de corta duracion a traves de sectores del sur e Puerto Rico en la manana, asi como a lo largo del interior y oeste de Puerto Rico en la tarde. Tronadas sobre el area metropolitana de San Juan son posibles. .Inundaciones...Fuertes lluvias pudieran causar inundaciones urbanas y de riachuelos, asi como deslizamientos cerca de areas de terreno alto mayormente a lo lardo del interior y mitad oeste de Puerto Rico, En el resto, acumulacion de agua en las carreteras y lugares de poco drenaje son posibles. .Vientos... Se esperan vientos sostenidos de hasta 24 MPH a lo largo de aguas costeras y expuestas del Atlantico. .Corrientes marinas...Existe un riesgo moderado de corrientes marinas para algunas de las playas del norte de Puerto Rico. .Dia dos a siete...sabado a jueves Suficiente contenido de humedad ayudara a los aguaceros inducidos por los efectos locales y tronadas, particularmente sobre el interior y oeste de Puerto Rico para cada tarde. Por lo tanto, existe el potencial de inudaciones y deslizamientos a lo largo de terrenos altos continuara, partuicularmente durante horas de la tarde. .Comunicado sobre informacion reportada por observadores... No se anticipa activacion amplia de observadores, sin embargo, se les exhorta a los observadores individuales a reportar inundaciones y corrientes marinas al Servicio Nacional de Meteorologia en San Juan. AMZ715-725-VIZ001-002-250845- San Tomas, San John y Islas Adyacentes- Santa Cruz-Aguas cercanas del Atlantico y aguas costeras adyacentes del Caribe- 439 AM AST viernes 24 de mayo de 2019 Esta perspectiva sobre las condiciones del tiempo peligrosas es para las Islas Virgenes Americanas y las aguas costeras adyacentes. .Dia Uno...Hoy y esta Noche .Tronadas... Existe la probabilidad de tronadas con lluvia fuerte y rafagas de corta duracion. Estas tronadas se moveran desde las aguas. Inundaciones... Lluvia de moderada a localmente fuerte pudiera causar acumulacion de agua en carreteras y lugares de poco drenaje. .Dia dos a siete...sabado a jueves No se esperan condiciones del tiempo peligrosas hasta el momento. .Comunicado sobre informacion reportada por observadores... Informacion reportada por observadores no sera necesaria.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
3 flood, 1 debris flow. Local standard time, as filed.
Road PR-125, intersection with Road PR-446, was closed due to Rio Guatemala rising. Urban flooding was also observed on Social Media, In addition to Emergency Managers, a spotter reported rain amounts of 2.30 inches during the past few hours.
A mudslide was reported in Sector Ramirez, Barrio Cerro Gordo. A family is uncommunicated due to the mudslide blocking Road PR-495.
Road PR-110 at sector Los Cocos, Barrio Marias was closed due to flooding as Rio Culebrinas went out of its banks.
Road PR-418 at Barrio Coloso was closed due to flooding as Rio Culebrinas was out of its banks.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Puerto Rico in 2019Every state in 2019This day in weather historyWarnings in Puerto Rico, May 2019
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 826893, 826896, 826898, 826899.