Sufficient low-level moisture along with very light steering flow combined with daytime heating and local effects to result in the development of slow-moving moderate to heavy showers across interior and northern PR.
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The episode as NWS SJU wrote it up.
Sufficient low-level moisture along with very light steering flow combined with daytime heating and local effects to result in the development of slow-moving moderate to heavy showers across interior and northern PR.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS San Juan, PR wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 30, 4:14 PM AST, 3 hours 16 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
414 PM AST Sat Mar 30 2019
SYNOPSIS...A strong surface low well north of the region and
associated frontal trough just to the west and north of the
forecast area, will continue to promote instability, low level
moisture convergence and light southeasterly winds through the
rest of the weekend. A weakening of the surface trough and the
building of a mid level ridge aloft will promote drier air and
more stable conditions during the the early part of the workweek.
.SHORT TERM...Rest of today through Monday...
The combination of a surface high pressure over the Central
Atlantic and a deep layered low with it associated frontal
trough to the north and west of the region respectively, will
maintain a southeasterly wind flow across the region through at
least early Sunday. The frontal system will continue to slowly
drift across the Atlantic while dissipating. This weather pattern
will however continue to promote the arrival of patches of moisture
across the islands from time to time. This will maintain sufficient
moisture pooling across the region to aid in the development of early
morning and afternoon convection each day. In addition, a sub- tropical
jet rounding the base of the upper- level trough will aid in afternoon
convection along and to the north of the Cordillera Central and downwind
from El Yunque each afternoon. The U.S. Virgin Islands and the southern
sections of Puerto Rico can expect mostly sunny skies with a few passing
showers during the overnight and morning hours with limited shower
activity during the rest of the day. A similar weather pattern will
prevail on Sunday.
For Monday, the easterly winds are forecast to return as a migratory
high pressure moves from the eastern US into the western Atlantic.
At upper levels, a mid to upper-level ridge will build aloft reinforcing
the trade wind inversion. Moisture will slowly erodes and temperatures
are likely to reach the mid to upper 80s along the northern sections.
Under this pattern, patches of low-level moisture embedded in the
trade winds will move in from time-to- time.
.LONG TERM...Tuesday through Saturday...(from previous discussion)
Mid level ridge is forecast to build from the western Caribbean
and move over the forecast area during the end of the week. This
will promote dry air and stable conditions aloft. An upper level
westerly jet is expected to remain north of the islands across the
Atlantic. Low level moisture will be capped at 700 MB or less and
peaks on Wednesday and Saturday due to weak surface troughs moving
from the east. In general, diurnally induced afternoon showers are
expected each day over the interior and western sections of PR and
rainfall amounts should be light to moderate. Passing trade wind
showers are expected through the long term period across the regional
waters and they could move at times across the U.S. Virgin Islands.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR conditions will prevail across the local flying
area. -SHRA/SHRA with isolated +SHRA will affect the central and
northern half or PR, and downwind from El Yunque and the Virgin
Isles til 30/22Z. Brief SHRA may also affect TJBQ/TJMZ/TJSJ, with
VCSH at TIST/TISX. This activity is expected to dissipate early
this evening leaving clear to partly cloudy skies. SFC Winds will
prevail fm the SE around 10 knots with sea breeze variations bcmg
calm to light and vrb aft 30/23z.
&&
.MARINE...A light chop still expect overnight due to a fading
northerly swell across the Atlantic waters. Seas will range
between 2-5 feet across the local waters and passages with
easterly winds between 5-10 knots during the overnight hours.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 75 87 75 / 30 30 30 20
STT 85 74 85 74 / 20 20 20 30
&&
.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...High Rip Current Risk until 6 PM AST this evening for Mayaguez
and Vicinity-North Central-Northeast-Northwest-San Juan and
Vicinity.
VI...None.
AM...None.
&&
SHORT TERM...GL
LONG TERM....RAMPerspectivas sobre Condiciones Peligrosas del Tiempo Servicio Nacional de Meteorologia San Juan PR 603 AM AST sabado 30 de marzo de 2019 AMZ710>745-PRZ001>013-311015- San Juan y Vecindad-Noreste-Sureste- Este Interior- Norte Central-Interior Central-Ponce y Vecindad- Noroeste- Oeste Interior-Mayaguez y Vecindad-Suroeste-Culebra- Vieques-Aguas cercanas y mar afuera del Atlantico y Caribe- 603 AM AST sabado 30 de marzo de 2019 Esta perspectiva sobre las condiciones peligrosas del tiempo es para Puerto Rico y las aguas costeras adyacentes del Atlantico. .Dia Uno...Hoy y esta noche .Inundaciones...Lluvia fuerte pudiera resultar en inundaciones urbanas y de riachuelos al norte de la Cordillera Central de Puerto Rico. .Oleaje... Se espera oleaje picado de hasta 6 pies a traves de las aguas mar afuera del Atlantico y el Pasaje de la Mona de Puerto Rico. .Corrientes Marinas...Existe riesgo alto de corrientes marinas para las playas desde el noroeste hasta el noreste de Puerto Rico. .Dia dos a siete...sabado a jueves El riesgo moderado de corrientes marinas persisitera a lo largo de la costa norte y este de Puerto Rico hasta al menos finalizar la semana laboral, cuando se espera que se deterioren las condiciones maritimas. Inundaciones urbanas y de riachuelos seran posibles a lo largo de la Cordillera Central y el norte de Puerto Rico para el domingo. No se espera tiempo peligroso adicional. .Comunicado sobre informacion reportada por observadores... No se anticipa activacion amplia de observadores, sin embargo, se les exhorta a los observadores individuales a reportar corrientes marinas al Servicio Nacional de Meteorologia en San Juan. AMZ715-725-VIZ001-002-311015- San Tomas, San John y Islas Adyacentes- Aguas cercanas del Atlantico y aguas costeras adyacentes del Caribe- 603 AM AST sabado 30 de marzo de 2019 Esta perspectiva sobre las condiciones del tiempo peligrosas es para las Islas Virgenes Americanas y las aguas costeras adyacentes. .Dia Uno...hoy y esta Noche .Oleaje... Se espera oleaje picado de hasta 6 pies a traves de las aguas mar afuera del Atlantico y los pasajes del Caribe. .Corrientes marinas...Existe riesgo moderado de corrientes marinas para algunas playas de San Thomas y Santa Cruz. .Dia dos a siete...sabado a jueves Riesgo moderado de corrientes marinas persistira a lo largo de las playas del norte y este de las Islas Virgenes Americanas hasta al menos finales de la semana laboral, cuando se pronostica que las condiciones maritimas se deterioren. No se espera tiempo peligroso adicional. .Comunicado sobre informacion reportada por observadores... No se anticipa activacion amplia de observadores, sin embargo, se les exhorta a los observadores individuales a reportar corrientes marinas al Servicio Nacional de Meteorologia en San Juan.
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
609 PM AST SAT MAR 30 2019
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0330 PM FLOOD TOA BAJA 18.44N 66.25W
03/30/2019 TOA BAJA PR EMERGENCY MNGR
MINOR FLOODING REPORTED ALONG AVENIDA DOS PALMAS, AVENIDA
LOS DOMINICOS Y BOULEVARD LEVITTOWN.
&&
GLOJEROThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Minor flooding reported along the vicinity of Avenida Dos Palmas, Avenida Los Dominicos and Boulevard Levittown.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Puerto Rico in 2019Every state in 2019This day in weather historyWarnings in Puerto Rico, March 2019
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 813834.