Several storms in February brought heavy snow to unusually low elevations, making a great impact in some areas. This was the first of the storms.
Every event with a place to put it; 5 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MFR wrote it up.
Several storms in February brought heavy snow to unusually low elevations, making a great impact in some areas. This was the first of the storms.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Medford, OR wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 8, 9:17 AM PST, 43 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
917 AM PST Fri Feb 8 2019
.DISCUSSION...No updates are planned for this morning. We are in
between two systems today, one off central California and the
other beginning to emerge from British Columbia. Right now, we
have some sprinkles or flurries around, but I don't see measurable
precipitation at any of the observing sites in the last hour.
This precipitation is primarily associated with the low off
California. As we go through the day, that low drops south away
from us, and we start to come under the influence of the big storm
dropping down the coast from Canada. Guidance is unanimous in
showing precipitation gradually increasing this afternoon and
evening over the Umpqua Basin and into the adjacent Cascades ahead
of the next system. Snow levels will be around 2500 feet, so it
will be rain in the valleys and snow above that level. Elsewhere,
precipitation will be much more scattered and lighter, so we're
not expecting anything significant today.
The system drops into our area tonight into Saturday, and this is
when things get interesting. Heavy snow in the mountains is a
certainty with this system, and snow levels will eventually get
low enough to see snow in the valleys. However, as usual, there
are questions as to the timing of that changeover and how much
precipitation is left by the time it's cold enough. We'll be
working hard to crack that code today. A vast array of winter
weather headlines remain in effect for this system.
All that said, this is the screaming message: While there is
still a lot of uncertainty regarding low elevation snow (amounts,
where, when) just about everywhere in our forecast area COULD see
snow late tonight through Saturday night, so residents and
travelers through the area should be prepared for the possibility
of snow ANYWHERE. -Wright
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 517 AM PST Fri Feb 8 2019/
DISCUSSION...
Hitting the main point first, we're expecting low elevation snow
accumulations down to between sea level and 500 feet in the late
Saturday morning through Sunday morning time period, and then,
possibly, again for elevations above 1000 feet Sunday night into
Monday. Due to the nature of the low pressure systems causing this
low elevation snow potential, expect that specific timing and
details will be difficult to pin down until it takes shape on
radar. Therefore, expect that roads and other surfaces could be
impacted during the above mentioned time periods, but stay tuned
for more specifics as we approach and go through these weather
events. A number of winter storm warnings and winter weather
advisories have been issued for the first low pressure system,
valid through Sunday morning.
This Friday morning temperatures have cooled to the lower side of
the model guidance and we're getting a few reports of snow
flurries and rain sprinkles across the area. The rain has mainly
been along, near, and north of the Umpqua Divide, and the snow has
been in the foothills of the Cascades from about Mount McLoughlin
north and east. This light precipitation is associated with a
trough of low pressure drifting through. For the rest of today we
expect showers to gradually increase in coverage and intensity
across the area late this afternoon through tonight. Snow levels
will edge up from between 1000 and 2000 feet this morning to
2000-3000 feet this afternoon and evening.
Saturday morning a cold front is expected to move southeastward
across the west side dropping snow levels into the 700-2000 foot
range. Snow levels are expected to fall further to between 500ft
MSL and sea level Saturday night into Sunday morning. Model
guidance is well agreed on a healthy band of precipitation moving
through from the northwest with the front Saturday morning. There
are model differences Saturday afternoon through Sunday, but all
of the primary models (the GFS, NAM12, and ECMWF) all agree that
the -38C to -41C 500MB cold core of the low will move across the
forecast area. We expect that the snow showers behind the Saturday
morning front will be locally intense due to the very cold air
aloft. Models show the associated surface flow moving southward
west of the coast. This is likely to keep the bulk of the moisture
with this system along and near the coast. Suffice it to say that
it will certainly be cold enough to snow across the Bear Creek
portion of the Rogue Valley Saturday afternoon through Sunday
morning, but how much remains uncertain. Current models are
suggesting 1-3 inches of snow on the valley floor.
Southwest winds are expected to increase Sunday afternoon through
Monday. Guidance indicates snow levels a little higher, between
500 and 1500 feet. As of now we're expecting about 2 inches of
snow for the Rogue Valley floor during that time period.
Monday night through Wednesday the wettest and warmest storm in
the series is expected. The ECMWF is much stronger with the system
tan is the GFS. Snow levels are expected to between 1-3 kft. Unsettled
weather and colder than normal are then expected into the
following weekend.
It should be noted that snow levels after the first weather system
will be partially dependent on how much snow falls from the first
one. This is because the state of the ground will be cooler if we
have snow in it. This will affect the low level environment for
the snowflakes. BTL
AVIATION...For the 08/12Z TAFs...Showers will continue over the
area today with a mix of VFR and areas of MVFR in showers
as well as terrain obscurations. As a front moves into the area
Friday evening and night, expect widespread MVFR cigs and local IFR
to develop. Widespread terrain obscurations are expected to develop
Friday night. /CC
MARINE...Updated 800 PM PST Thursday 7 February 2019...Low pressure
will gradually move towards the northern and central California
coast today and tonight. Conditions will remain below criteria
levels today into tonight.
Seas will build late Friday night into Saturday becoming very
steep as heavy west and west-northwest swell moves into the waters.
These swells will be a mix of long period 20 to 22 second west swell
and 13 second west to northwest swell. Very steep and hazardous seas
will make for rough bar conditions Saturday morning into Sunday
afternoon. Also, along beaches, dangerous sneaker waves are possible
on Saturday. In addition, advisory level northwest winds are
expected Saturday as the first in a series of strong, cold lows
moves in from the north. Winds may approach gales at times,
especially over the outer waters, but should remain at high end
advisory level for the most part. Seas will gradually lower late
Sunday but may remain steep to very steep Sunday night into early
next week.
More systems will move in from the north, bringing continued
unsettled weather through the weekend and Monday. With
the cold air already in place, one or two more rounds of snow are
possible along the coast and over the waters as the systems
pass overhead. /CC
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 AM PST
Sunday for ORZ029>031.
Winter Storm Warning from 10 PM this evening to 4 AM PST Sunday
for ORZ029-030.
Winter Storm Warning from 10 PM this evening to 4 AM PST Sunday
above 4500 feet in the for ORZ031.
Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 AM PST
Sunday for ORZ027-028.
Beach Hazards Statement from late tonight through late Saturday
night for ORZ021-022.
Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM Saturday to 7 AM PST Sunday
for ORZ021-022.
Winter Storm Warning from 10 PM this evening to 4 AM PST Sunday
below 2000 feet in the for ORZ021-022.
Winter Storm Warning from 10 PM this evening to 4 AM PST Sunday
above 2000 feet in the for ORZ025-026.
Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM Saturday to 4 AM PST Sunday
above 500 feet in the for ORZ023.
Winter Storm Warning from 10 PM this evening to 4 AM PST Sunday
above 1500 feet in the for ORZ023.
Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM Saturday to 4 AM PST Sunday
below 1500 feet in the for ORZ024.
Winter Storm Warning from 10 PM this evening to 4 AM PST Sunday
above 1500 feet in the for ORZ024.
Winter Storm Warning from 10 PM this evening to 4 AM PST Sunday
for ORZ027.
Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM Saturday to 4 AM PST Sunday
below 2000 feet in the for ORZ026.
CA...Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 AM PST
Sunday for CAZ085.
Winter Storm Warning from 10 PM this evening to 4 AM PST Sunday
above 4500 feet in the for CAZ085.
Winter Storm Warning from 10 PM this evening to 4 AM PST Sunday
above 4000 feet in the for CAZ080>083.
Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 AM PST
Sunday below 4000 feet in the for CAZ080-081-083-084.
Pacific Coastal Waters...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 10 AM PST Saturday for
PZZ350-356-376.
Hazardous Seas Warning from 4 AM Saturday to 4 PM PST Sunday for
PZZ350-356-370-376.The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
5 heavy snow. Local standard time, as filed.
The cooperative observer at Lemolo Lake reported 21.0 inches of snow in 24 hours ending at 09/1000 PST. The cooperative observer at Odell Lake East reported 13.0 inches in 24 hours ending at 09/0800 PST.
The cooperative observer at Toketee Falls reported 7.0 inches of snow in 24 hours ending at 09/2000 PST.
A spotter 6E Gold Beach at elevation 2627 feet reported snow beginning overnight on the morning of the 8th. An estimated 2.0 inches was on the ground the morning of the 9th. The spotter then reported a measured 10.3 inches on the ground at 10/0800 PST.
The Jackson County Road department reported an estimated 11 inches of snow on highway 227 up to the pass to Tiller. A spotter 1NE Ruch reported 6.5 inches of snow at 09/1230 PST.
A spotter 2WSW OBrien reported 1.5 inches of snow on the ground at 09/1500 PST and 3.5 inches of snow at 09/1700 PST. At 10/0600 PST he reported an additional 6.5 inches of snow in the past 15 hours and a storm total of 8.0 inches. A spotter 1W Williams reported 4.0 inches of snow in 4.5 hours, ending at 09/1900 PST. Highway 199 was closed at the Oregon/California border due to numerous trees down on the road on the morning of the 10th. A CoCoRAHs observer 2SW OBrien reported 12.1 inches of snow in 24 hours ending at 10/0700 PST.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Oregon in 2019Every state in 2019This day in weather historyWarnings in Oregon, February 2019
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 805791, 805792, 805786, 805787, 805790.