Flood in Oregon, February 25 to 26, 2019

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
300 AM PST Mon Feb 25 2019

.DISCUSSION...25/00Z NAM/GFS/EC in.

A very busy morning weatherwise across the Medford CWA with
numerous watches, warnings, and advisories in effect.

A front over the forecast area is effectively stalled at this
time with weak waves moving northeast along the frontal boundary.
This has set up an unusual pattern with snow levels near 500 feet
over Douglas county and up near 5000 feet to the south. Roseburg
at near 500 feet elevation has been getting heavy snow while
Siskiyou Summit at 4300 feet is getting rain. Very heavy rains are
falling along the coast and over the Coast Range with 24 hour
totals as of 1 AM Sunday ranging from over 2 inches to 8.50
inches. Areal Flood Warnings are in effect for Coos and Curry
counties along with Point Flood Warnings along the Coquille River
and Deer Creek at Roseburg. See PDXFLWMFR for details.

Meanwhile, where there is snow there is lots of it. 3 to 5 inches
has fallen in the Roseburg area with more to come. 40 inches of
snow has been reported near Diamond Lake on the Cascade crest.
See PDXWSWMFR for details.

There are also strong winds, especially east of the Cascades,
where peak gusts exceeding 60 mph have been reported. The coast
and the Shasta Valley will also see strong winds. See PDXNPWMFR as
well as PDXWSWMFR for details.

A wave on the front will push the boundary north later tonight,
then it will push the front south and east into northern
California and south central Oregon this afternoon and evening.
So, the low elevation snow in Douglas county will turn to rain
later this morning, then back to snow as the cold front pushes
through this afternoon. However, by that time the precipitation
rates will be lower. Precipitation amounts will be lower over
south central Oregon and northern California, but those areas
will still see significant amounts.

However, that will not be the end of it. A stronger wave will
develop on the front, causing it to pull back north Tuesday night
into Wednesday for another round of moderate to heavy precipitation.
The front will then weaken Wednesday and precipitation will
diminish again. There will be a high snow level gradient across
the area with snow levels as low as 500 feet in the colder air and
as high as 5000 feet south of the front. Everything depends on the
location of the front and a few miles either way can make a big
difference in the impacts.

Extended discussion from the Sunday afternoon AFD...Thursday 28
February through Sunday 03 March. For the rest of the forecast
term, active weather is expected to continue, although there
appear to be some breaks possible this weekend or early next week.
Some low elevation snow is possible Thursday as another front and
cold upper level trough slide through the area, but no other
unusual late February or early March weather is expected at this
time. Temperatures should trend near or slightly below normal. The
good news, with all of the activity over the week, we do expect
snowpack and seasonal rainfall totals to reach or exceed normal
values for nearly the entire area, which bodes well for the water
season and the coming year. -BPN

&&

.AVIATION...For the 25/06Z TAFs...Through Monday afternoon, a sharp
and slow moving frontal boundary will continue producing widespread
precipitation (moderate to heavy at times) with strong, gusty
southerly low level winds, mountain obscuration, and a wide range of
ceilings from LIFR to VFR. This includes low elevation snow on the
north side of the front with freezing levels near or at valley
floors north of the Umpqua Divide.

The front should move northward raising the freezing level Monday
morning to around 2000 feet. The gusty southerly winds through
Monday afternoon will be strongest in the Shasta Valley, over the
higher terrain and east of the Cascades. Mountain wave turbulence,
and pockets of low level wind shear in sheltered valleys are
possible. Downslope winds will create VFR conditions at times in
some of the valleys such as the Rogue Valley, including KMFR. -DW

&&

.MARINE...Updated 200 AM PST Monday, 25 February 2019...Strong
convergent winds will continue this morning with strong northerly
winds north of Cape Blanco and gale force winds south of Cape
Blanco. The front will then push south and all the winds will then
turn northerly behind the front with gales ending early Monday
morning. Because of the strong gale for winds, seas will remain
very steep and hazardous to most crafts. The steep seas will
continue gradually flatten through Monday night.

A long period westerly swell of around 5 to 8 feet at 20 seconds may
build Wednesday night into Thursday. The weather pattern is likely
to remain active through the next week.

Weygand/Smith

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for
        ORZ029>031.
     Winter Storm Warning until 10 PM PST this evening for
        ORZ029-030.
     Winter Storm Warning until 10 PM PST this evening for ORZ031.
     Flood Watch through this evening for ORZ021-023>028.
     High Wind Warning until 10 AM PST this morning for ORZ021-022.
     Flash Flood Watch until 4 AM PST early this morning for ORZ024.
     Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM PST this morning for ORZ023.
     Winter Storm Warning until 10 PM PST this evening for ORZ025.
     Winter Storm Warning until 10 PM PST this evening for
        ORZ027-028.

CA...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for
        CAZ083>085.
     Flood Watch from 4 AM PST early this morning through Tuesday
        morning for CAZ080>083.
     Winter Storm Warning until 10 PM PST this evening for CAZ080.
     Winter Storm Warning until 10 PM PST this evening for
        CAZ082-083.
     High Wind Warning until 4 PM PST this afternoon for CAZ081.

Pacific Coastal Waters...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM PST this
        morning for PZZ350-356-370-376.
     Gale Warning until 7 AM PST this morning for PZZ356-376.
     Hazardous Seas Warning from 7 AM this morning to 7 PM PST this
        evening for PZZ350-356-370-376.

15/15/11

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
319 AM PST MON FEB 25 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0100 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 ENE BROOKINGS         42.06N 124.28W
02/25/2019  M9.05 INCH       CURRY              OR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ACCUMULATION OVER 24 HOURS.

&&

CZS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
502 AM PST MON FEB 25 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0501 AM     HEAVY RAIN       GOLD BEACH              42.41N 124.42W
02/25/2019  M6.35 INCH       CURRY              OR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            24 HOUR TOTAL ENDING AT 0500 PST.

&&

JRS