Flood in Oklahoma, September 23 to 25, 2019

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
653 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2019

.DISCUSSION...

The discussion regarding the 12Z TAF forecast follows...

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Varying conditions across the region today as a cold front drops
south across the region. Sub-IFR conditions currently over NW AR,
with MVFR/VFR conditions elsewhere. Expect a trend toward MVFR for
the NW AR and SE OK sites thru the morning, then trending toward
VFR during the afternoon. Inserted prob30 groups for storm
potential after 06Z tonight at most sites.

Lacy

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 251 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2019/

DISCUSSION...
Main forecast concern this morning involves the potential for more
heavy rain mainly tomorrow. Overall, the pattern will remain
active and favorable for multiple rounds of showers and
thunderstorms through at least a portion of the weekend.

A slow-moving cold front has pushed through parts of the forecast
area this morning, currently extending from the OKC metro to near
Okmulgee to Fayetteville. The cool and dry air is lagging the
initial wind shift quite a bit, with dew points along the Kansas
border only having fallen into the mid 60s presently. Widely
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms remained along and
south of the front, and the expectation is that the overall
coverage today will remain at best scattered. Locally heavy
rainfall with the stronger showers and storms will remain
possible.

The chance of widespread showers and thunderstorms and the
associated heavy rain potential will begin to increase early
tomorrow morning and continue through much of the day. The
front, which is expected to stall today across southeast Oklahoma,
will begin to move northward once again late tonight and into
early tomorrow morning, with showers and thunderstorm development
likely as a disturbance passes through the region. Areas south of
I-44 currently appear most susceptible to receiving the higher
rainfall amounts, on average from 1 to 2 inches total.

Toward the middle of the week, the greatest shower and
thunderstorm chances will shift into the northern half of the
forecast area, nearest the front and the main upper level flow. A
fairly low severe weather threat will exist with thunderstorms
near the front late tomorrow and again Wednesday, but the greatest
potential should remain north of the area. After a brief respite
late Thursday, the upper level flow is expected to turn
southwesterly as ridging expands in the southeastern United
States. Additional showers and thunderstorms will be possible
through the middle part of the weekend as disturbances
periodically move through the area.

The ridge will expand further westward, bringing well above normal
temperatures and dry conditions to eastern Oklahoma and western
Arkansas by early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   87  69  83  71 /   0  20  60  40
FSM   88  70  79  70 /  30  30  70  40
MLC   86  70  80  70 /  40  40  70  30
BVO   84  65  84  69 /   0  10  50  40
FYV   83  65  76  67 /  10  20  60  40
BYV   84  64  78  67 /  20  10  60  40
MKO   86  69  80  69 /  10  40  70  40
MIO   84  64  79  69 /   0  10  50  50
F10   87  69  80  70 /  10  40  70  30
HHW   87  71  83  70 /  40  40  60  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

AVIATION.....30

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
512 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2019

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-241015-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
512 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2019

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...East Central and Southeast Oklahoma.
	ONSET...After 7 AM Southeast Oklahoma, After 7 PM East Central Oklahoma.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...East Central and Southeast Oklahoma.
	ONSET...After 7 AM Southeast Oklahoma, After 7 PM East Central Oklahoma.

THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...East Central and Southeast Oklahoma, West Central Arkansas.
	ONSET...After 7 AM.

POOR VISIBILITY.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Northeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...

There is a limited threat of heavy rainfall and flooding across
east central and southeast Oklahoma today and tonight. A cold
front will focus one or more rounds of shower and thunderstorm
activity across this region, which could produce heavy rainfall
due to the high amount of atmospheric moisture in place.

Patchy fog will reduce visibilities to a mile or less this morning
across northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. The fog should
lift by mid morning.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Spotter Activation Not Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.
TUESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
WEDNESDAY and THURSDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
FRIDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential.
SATURDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
SUNDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

The front currently moving across the region will continue to
focus shower and storm activity into Tuesday across east central
and southeast Oklahoma, as well as west central Arkansas. Locally
heavy rainfall and flooding are possible.

Another cold front will bring the potential for storms Tuesday
night into Wednesday mainly across northeast Oklahoma and
northwest Arkansas. There is a limited severe hail/wind threat
with these storms.

The active weather pattern continues toward the end of the week,
as yet another cold front will focus thunderstorm activity across
the central Plains Friday into Saturday.

A ridge of high pressure aloft is expected to build over the
region by Sunday, thereby putting an end to the current active
weather regime.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

Lacy