Flash Flood and Hail in Ohio, July 2 to 3, 2019

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
947 AM EDT Tue Jul 2 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm front pushes northward this morning. Very warm and humid
for much of the rest of the week, with the daily chance for
mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 945 AM Tuesday...

Increased POPs a tad for our Kentucky Counties this morning to
capture current radar trends. Otherwise, maintained the
inherited forecast for the afternoon with precip chances
expanding across the region in response to diurnally driven
convection.

As of 230 AM Tuesday...

A warm front will continue to push northward this morning. Will
have a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms this morning
due to the front. Chances of precipitation increase considerably
this afternoon with plenty of moisture and diurnal heating.

Sounding show that the atmosphere remains unstable overnight, so
will keep at least a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms
through the night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 245 AM Tuesday...

For this period upper level ridging overhead and a meandering
surface frontal boundary to the north will be set in place
maintaining the warm and humid airmass. This along with a short wave
which will cross to the northern part of our area will provide the
lifting mechanisms needed for thunderstorms throughout the day.
Along with around 3000 J/kg of CAPE and sufficient moisture
being pumped in, thanks to a low progged to be to our southeast,
this will create an environment conducive for thunderstorms
which will mainly be confined to the norther parts of the area,
however they could potentially develop anywhere during the
afternoon as convective temperatures are met or exceeded.

We are in a marginal risk for severe on Wednesday and although shear
will be weak and upper level support will be virtually be non-
existent, there are enough parameters in place for an isolated
strong to severe storm. Therefore, we cannot rule them out
completely. Without strong flow storms would traverse slowly and
would be perceived as a threat for flooding issues and even
though storms should be short lived they will have potential to
train and release enough rain in a short period especially with
PWATs close to 2 inches in areas. Flooding in Randolph County
this past Saturday night is a prime example to raise awareness.
Thursday is basically a repeat for diurnally driven
thunderstorms and showers along with similar moisture advection
and instability, however no severe bells are ringing at this
time although we cannot rule the chance out completely.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 305 AM Tuesday...

With upper level ridging moving to the east, this will allow for a
system to cross into the area for the beginning of the weekend
promoting consistent and unsettled weather, unfortunately for
most of the weekend as a cold front will slowly make its way
through. Numerous short waves will plague the area and with
modest upper level winds there could possibly be enough shear to
promote stronger thunderstorms. Daily diurnally driven
thunderstorms and showers are feasible through Sunday. For Monday
there should be a change in pace as high pressure will park
over the area right around this time. Thereafter, the area
should receive a break from unsettled weather until midweek.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 105 AM Tuesday...

Some early morning showers could cause some restrictions.
Any fog will burn off quickly this morning. Some MVFR clouds
will continue early this morning in the mountains.

Expect a cumulus deck for today, with some restrictions in
scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Generally VFR conditions can be expected Tuesday night, with the
exception of a few showers and thunderstorms.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and location of showers and
thunderstorms could vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23
EDT 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...
Brief IFR possible in scattered showers and thunderstorms this
week.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RPY/JZ
NEAR TERM...RPY/MEK
SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM...JZ
AVIATION...RPY

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Charleston WV
429 AM EDT Tue Jul 2 2019

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-VAZ003-004-WVZ005>011-
013>020-024>034-039-040-515>526-030830-
Greenup-Carter-Boyd-Lawrence KY-Perry-Morgan-Athens-Washington-
Jackson OH-Vinton-Meigs-Gallia-Lawrence OH-Dickenson-Buchanan-Wayne-
Cabell-Mason-Jackson WV-Wood-Pleasants-Tyler-Lincoln-Putnam-Kanawha-
Roane-Wirt-Calhoun-Ritchie-Doddridge-Mingo-Logan-Boone-Clay-Braxton-
Gilmer-Lewis-Harrison-Taylor-McDowell-Wyoming-Upshur-Barbour-
Northwest Raleigh-Southeast Raleigh-Northwest Fayette-
Southeast Fayette-Northwest Nicholas-Southeast Nicholas-
Northwest Webster-Southeast Webster-Northwest Pocahontas-
Southeast Pocahontas-Northwest Randolph-Southeast Randolph-
429 AM EDT Tue Jul 2 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Kentucky, southeast
Ohio, southwest Virginia and much of West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

There is a marginal risk out for severe storms on Wednesday.
Thunderstorms are expected during the daytime and there is a chance
for some to become strong or severe. There is also potential for a
severe thunderstorm to develop along with diurnal convection in the
afternoons anytime this week and into the weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1159 AM EDT Tue Jul 2 2019

OHZ075-084-085-021630-
Athens-Meigs-Vinton-
1159 AM EDT Tue Jul 2 2019

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN MEIGS...
SOUTHWESTERN ATHENS AND EASTERN VINTON COUNTIES...

At 1159 AM EDT, strong thunderstorms were clustered near Lake Hope
State Park, moving southeast at 15 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Mcarthur, Albany, Lake Hope State Park, Zaleski, Wilkesville,
Radcliffe and Carpenter.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 3925 8253 3935 8236 3927 8204 3906 8231
TIME...MOT...LOC 1559Z 312DEG 12KT 3926 8238

HART