What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Wilmington, NC wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 31, 7:06 PM EST, 19 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, May 31, 7:06 PM EST, 19 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
Issued by National Weather Service Charleston SC
806 PM EDT Fri May 31 2019
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will cross the region tonight, the weak low pressure
will persist over the area this weekend. Then, another cold front
will cross the region by Monday, followed by high pressure and drier
weather with temperatures closer to normal through Tuesday. A trough
of low pressure could increase the chance for showers and
thunderstorms mid to late week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Main concern is severe thunderstorm threat through this evening
as an upper shortwave and surface cold front approach from the
west and the sea breeze moves inland in an environment favorable
for organized convection and strong downbursts given decent
mid-level dry air, instability and shear. A Severe Thunderstorm
Watch remains in effect for our NC counties until 11 PM EDT.
The main hazards are damaging winds and large hail, although an
isolated tornado is possible, mainly near and north of
Wilmington. The front should push offshore around midnight with
improving conditions afterward. Lows should range from the mid
60s inland to near 70 at the coast, still slightly above normal
for this time of year.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Saturday: Deep layered troughing on the southern periphery of a
shortwave trough exiting the east CONUS could support
isolated/scattered afternoon/evening thunderstorms especially across
northern/eastern sections. While MLCapes should remain limited to
the 500-1000 j/kg range, the mid level thermal trough could support
isolated hail. Otherwise, high temperatures in the middle to upper
80s most locations should feel somewhat cooler as compared with the
recent heat wave. Saturday night, expect low temperatures in the
middle to upper 60s most areas except lower 70s on the coast.
Sunday: While deep-layered troughing will persist, drier air should
maintain rain-free conditions. Ahead of another approaching cold
front, well-above normal for early June. Then, the next cold front
should cross the region late Sunday night or early Monday. Guidance
has trended drier with this front, so PoPs remain below 15 percent
with no mention of precipitation.
Monday: In the wake of dry cold fropa, high pressure will push
drier and somewhat cooler air into the region. temperatures should
only top out in the middle to upper 80s.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure should provide a dry day Tuesday featuring high
temperatures in the middle 80s and nighttime lows in the 60s inland
and around 70F on the coast. Then, high pressure will shift
offshore. Resulting southwest flow will push more humid and somewhat
warmer air into the region, and guidance depicts a surface trough
developing inland. Thus, conditions should become more favorable for
showers/thunderstorms mid to late week.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Thunderstorms will impact some/all terminals with gusty winds and
brief flight restrictions as a cold front advances into the region
by 06z. Then, VFR conditions should prevail through the remainder of
the 00z TAF period. Of note, patchy fog could develop overnight,
especially at terminals which received rain, and a thunderstorm
cannot be ruled out Saturday afternoon, especially at KFLO, KLBT and
KILM. However, the probability of these events remain to low to
justify any mention/associated flight restrictions within 00Z TAFs.
Extended Outlook...Low probability for brief flight restrictions in
daybreak stratus/fog at inland sites. Also, any showers or
thunderstorms could produce brief flight restrictions Saturday
afternoon/evening and then again Wednesday. Otherwise, mostly
VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
Tonight: Southwest flow will remain elevated near Advisory
range early ahead of an approaching cold front which will move
through after midnight. A weaker pressure gradient late will
result in lighter winds and improving conditions. Also,
scattered thunderstorms could be severe this evening prior to
the frontal passage.
Saturday through Wednesday: Offshore winds in the wake of cold fropa
will quickly give way to the sea breeze Saturday afternoon, then
south/southwest winds will prevail until the next cold front passes
late Sunday night or Monday. During this time, winds should remain
capped at 15 knots, and seas should average 2-3 feet. Then, winds
will swing into the northeast as high pressure expands south Monday
through Tuesday. While we cannot rule out marginal Small Craft
Advisory conditions, winds have been capped at 15-20 knots, and seas
should most likely remain no higher than 3-4 feet. Late Tuesday
through midweek, the high pressure will shift offshore, and winds
are expected to veer through east/southeast to south. By Wednesday,
south winds could average 15-20 knots, accompanied by seas of 2-4
feet.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
Hazardous weather outlook, May 31, 7:02 PM EST, 23 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
Issued by National Weather Service Charleston SC
802 PM EDT Fri May 31 2019
SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-054>056-058-059-020015-
Marlboro-Darlington-Dillon-Florence-Marion-Williamsburg-
Coastal Horry-Inland Georgetown-Coastal Georgetown-Central Horry-
Northern Horry-
802 PM EDT Fri May 31 2019
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast South Carolina.
.DAY ONE...Tonight.
There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.
Scattered thunderstorms may produce hail and locally damaging winds
this evening. An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out as well,
mainly near and north of Wilmington.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.
Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation may be needed.
NCZ087-096-099-105>110-020015-
Robeson-Bladen-Columbus-Inland Pender-Coastal Pender-
Inland New Hanover-Coastal New Hanover-Inland Brunswick-
Coastal Brunswick-
802 PM EDT Fri May 31 2019
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 300 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast North Carolina.
.DAY ONE...Tonight.
Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.
Severe Thunderstorm Watch.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.
Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.
AMZ250-252-020015-
Coastal waters from Surf City to Cape Fear NC out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape Fear NC to Little River Inlet SC out 20 nm-
802 PM EDT Fri May 31 2019
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 300 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the adjacent Coastal Waters.
.DAY ONE...Tonight.
Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.
Severe Thunderstorm Watch.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.
No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.
AMZ254-256-020015-
Coastal waters from Little River Inlet to Murrells Inlet SC out
20 nm-
Coastal waters from Murrells Inlet to South Santee River SC out
20 nm-
802 PM EDT Fri May 31 2019
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the adjacent Coastal Waters.
.DAY ONE...Tonight.
There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.
Scattered thunderstorms may produce hail and locally damaging winds
this evening.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.
No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation may be needed.
In the hours before
Special weather statement, May 31, 5:00 PM EST, 2 hours 25 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
Issued by National Weather Service Charleston SC
600 PM EDT Fri May 31 2019
SCZ054-058-312230-
Coastal Horry-Central Horry-
600 PM EDT Fri May 31 2019
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN HORRY
COUNTY...
At 600 PM EDT, National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a
strong thunderstorm over Myrtle Beach, moving northeast at 35 mph.
HAZARD...strong winds 45 to 55 mph and up to nickel sized hail.
IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
light, unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to plants,
trees and crops is possible. Damage to windshields is
unlikely.
Some locations in the path of this storm include...
Myrtle Beach, North Myrtle Beach, Myrtle Beach Airport, North Myrtle
Beach Airport, Wampee, Forestbrook, Cherry Grove Beach and Barefoot
Landing Area Of North Myrtle Beach.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
This storm may intensify. Be certain to monitor local radio and TV
stations as well as local cable TV outlets for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.
&&
LAT...LON 3377 7898 3387 7872 3382 7859 3373 7877
3369 7882 3367 7893
TIME...MOT...LOC 2200Z 247DEG 30KT 3375 7889Local storm report, May 31, 5:12 PM EST, 2 hours 13 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
612 PM EDT FRI MAY 31 2019
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0602 PM HAIL 1 WNW MYRTLE BEACH 33.70N 78.90W
05/31/2019 E1.00 INCH HORRY SC TRAINED SPOTTER
ALONG HIGHWAY 501.
&&
EVENT NUMBER ILM1900002Local storm report, May 31, 5:30 PM EST, 1 hour 55 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
630 PM EDT FRI MAY 31 2019
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0603 PM MARINE TSTM WIND 3 SSE MURRELLS INLET 33.52N 79.03W
05/31/2019 M39 MPH AMZ256 SC MESONET
MURRELLS INLET WXFLOW GUSTED TO 34 KT FROM THE
SOUTHWEST.
&&
EVENT NUMBER ILM1900003
JRLLocal storm report, May 31, 5:40 PM EST, 1 hour 45 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
640 PM EDT FRI MAY 31 2019
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0400 PM TSTM WND DMG GALIVANTS FERRY 34.05N 79.25W
05/31/2019 HORRY SC BROADCAST MEDIA
TWO LARGE TREES KNOCKED DOWN.
&&
EVENT NUMBER ILM1900004
MTESpecial weather statement, May 31, 6:06 PM EST, 1 hour 19 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
Issued by National Weather Service Charleston SC
706 PM EDT Fri May 31 2019
SCZ017-312330-
Marlboro-
706 PM EDT Fri May 31 2019
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MARLBORO
COUNTY...
At 706 PM EDT, National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a
strong thunderstorm near Cheraw State Park, or 7 miles southeast of
Cheraw, moving east at 25 mph.
HAZARD...strong winds 45 to 55 mph.
IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
light, unsecured objects.
Some locations in the path of this storm include...
Bennettsville and Chavistown.
LAT...LON 3449 7958 3450 7975 3452 7976 3450 7977
3450 7983 3453 7983 3460 7981 3461 7980
3461 7978 3464 7980 3465 7980 3466 7983
3469 7987 3471 7962
TIME...MOT...LOC 2306Z 270DEG 20KT 3460 7982Special weather statement, May 31, 6:50 PM EST, 35 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
Issued by National Weather Service Charleston SC
750 PM EDT Fri May 31 2019
NCZ087-099-SCZ024-033-059-010015-
Robeson-Columbus-Marion-Northern Horry-Dillon-
750 PM EDT Fri May 31 2019
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ROBESON...WEST CENTRAL COLUMBUS...SOUTHEASTERN DILLON...NORTHWESTERN
HORRY AND NORTHEASTERN MARION COUNTIES...
At 750 PM EDT, National Weather Service doppler radar indicated
strong thunderstorms along a line extending from Kemper to Rains, and
moving east at 20 mph.
HAZARD...strong winds 45 to 55 mph and up to penny sized hail.
IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
light, unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to plants,
trees and crops is possible. Damage to windshields is
unlikely.
Some locations in the path of these storms include...
Mullins, Fair Bluff, Lake View, Galivants Ferry, Fork, Smithboro,
Kemper and Gapway.
LAT...LON 3438 7894 3405 7912 3397 7917 3408 7941
3442 7923
TIME...MOT...LOC 2350Z 280DEG 19KT 3432 7920 3410 7935