An isolated thunderstorm developed across the foothills during the afternoon and moved east across the northern Piedmont. Brief wind damage occurred in Iredell County.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS GSP wrote it up.
An isolated thunderstorm developed across the foothills during the afternoon and moved east across the northern Piedmont. Brief wind damage occurred in Iredell County.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 29, 4:12 PM EST, 45 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
512 PM EDT Wed May 29 2019
.SYNOPSIS...
Broad high pressure will start to weaken over the Southeast on
Thursday, resulting in one more day of near-record heat and limited
afternoon shower and thunderstorm chances before a series of weak
low pressure systems gradually and modestly lower temperatures
and increase precipitation chances through mid-week next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 5 pm EDT: we currently have only one small thunderstorm cell
over the CWFA and it is moving eastward into Alexander and Catawba
Counties. Otherwise conditions remain mostly clear and hot across
the area with some low-end wind gusts continuing over many sites.
A couple of lines of strong convection are passing over Virginia
and West Virginia, but they should remain to our north. Temperatures
appear to have topped out for the day, with some locations approaching
records.
The southeast ridge will remain stubborn for one more night but then
shortwaves will begin to beat down the ridge along the northern
periphery across western NC on Thursday. A very weak frontal zone
will lay over toward the southern Appalachians through late Thursday
as well, slightly increasing moisture in profiles across western
sections very late in the day. Vertical profiles still look fairly
capped by warm temps aloft through the period and the PoPs will
remain confined to slight chances across the far northwest sections
late Thursday. Mixing will remain deep, and southwest flow at the
top of the mixed layer could reach about 30 kt. Anticipate breezier
to windier conditions during peak mixing. Temps will continue near
Wed. values, but perhaps a degree less in some areas Thursday
afternoon. Dry dew points will continue to undercut the humidity,
however.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 245 PM Wednesday: Relief from the heat and dryness, albeit
slow and relative, is on the horizon for our area beginning
in the short-term, which takes us through Saturday evening.
The upper-level pattern continues to evolve during this period
as a series of shortwaves propagating through the mean flow at
the base of a flattened longwave trough across eastern Canada
erodes the Southeast ridge. The resulting height falls across the
eastern CONUS will amplify the longwave trough as ridging sets up
further west across the High Plains in response to a deepening
West Coast closed low. Generally speaking, this will translate
in a gradual "cool down" from well-above normal temperatures to
merely above-normal temperatures Friday and Saturday, with highs
4-6 degrees above normal on Friday and 3-5 degrees above normal on
Saturday as a weak cold front moves through the area late Friday.
Fortunately, dewpoints are expected to stay generally steady as the
Gulf and Atlantic remain closed for moisture transport within the
predominantly westerly low-level flow; therefore, the cooler air
temperatures are not going to be countered by more uncomfortable
humidity values.
Given the persistent heat and increasing water demands, we are also
getting significantly dry across the area and could benefit from
some rainfall. The promise of not just the first front late Friday
but a reinforcing cold front late Saturday brings some forcing
and much needed, albeit modest, rainfall chances to the mountains
and portions of the NC Piedmont. However, most of the SC Upstate
and NE GA, where conditions are driest, are not likely to see any
relief through the period. Where isolated to scattered convection
does develop, while 0-6km bulk shear values will be quite high
(above 60kts) on Friday, values will drop significantly on Saturday
and instability will be generally poor both days with shallow
mid-level lapse rates, a deep mixed layer, and a persistent weak
cap between 600-650mb. These conditions should limit the strength
of any thunderstorms that manage to develop.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 245 PM Wednesday: The region will be underneath persistent
northwest flow aloft, as a longwave trough pattern persists
across the eastern CONUS through mid-week next week. Following
the weak frontal passage late Saturday into early Sunday, yet
another shortwave in the flow propagates close to the region
Sunday afternoon. The GFS is further south with the feature,
maintaining chance PoPs across the mountains, whereas the ECMWF
is drier as it propagates the shortwave a bit further north.
The current forecast maintains chance PoPs across the mountains and
slight chance PoPs across the NW Piedmont and NC foothills Sunday
before dry high pressure builds in across the area for Monday.
Once again, significant differences develop between the GFS and
ECMWF solutions, with the GFS more progressive with the high
pressure system, placing the region in return, upslope flow in
time for Tuesday afternoon convective development, whereas the
ECMWF anchors high pressure over the lower Great Lakes into the
Mid-Atlantic through Wednesday morning, keeping us totally dry.
This too has complicated the PoP forecast, which admittedly remains
a blend of the two solutions with a weight placed on the drier
ECMWF given the overall pattern and predominant upper-level flow.
Either way, pattern supports a continued "retreat" in temperatures
through the period as highs fall to "only" 1-3 degrees above normal
Monday through Wednesday. Low temperatures will start to rebound
Wednesday morning through Thursday morning as return flow sets up
on the backside of the departing high pressure system.
Overall, through the extended, there appears to be little relief
from the dry conditions for most of the area, especially the driest
areas across Upstate SC and northeast GA. The most promising
period for widespread rainfall chances comes near the end of the
period late Wednesday into Thursday and as mentioned in the previous
forecast, the guidance continues to disagree on the timing of the
cold front approaching the region at that time. The GFS remains
the faster solution, increasing shower and thunderstorm chances
late Wednesday while the ECMWF remains slower and keeps the area
dry through the end of the period Thursday morning. Therefore,
the forecast reflects a blend of the guidance with respect to PoPs.
The pattern suggests more widespread rainfall chances are possible
towards the second half of next week as moisture flux will be
increasing on the backside of the Atlantic high pressure system,
diurnal instability may be more significant, and the frontal
orientation and slow motion may prolong chances for activity into
late next week.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Mixing will allow southwesterly wind gusts
near 20 kt to develop throughout the terminal forecast area this
afternoon into early this evening. KAVL winds should stay more
northwesterly in the French Broad Valley. Expect mainly light winds
overnight, with southwest gusts returning with mixing by late
Thursday morning. Thursday gusts should be higher, possibly in the
20 to 30 kt range at times with peak mixing Thu. afternoon.
Anticipate FEW to SCT VFR cloud bases, with daytime cumulus and
nighttime cirrus contributing most. Will need to keep an eye on
isolated convection possibly developing around KHKY late this
afternoon as depicted on some of the convection allowing models.
Outlook: The persistent upper ridge will begin to break down late
Thursday through Friday with low end shower and thunderstorm chances
gradually returning from the west, mainly across the mountains.
Unsettled conditions are possible this weekend into next week given
the pattern change to an eastern trough, but moisture still looks
limited.
Confidence Table...
21-03z 03-09Z 09-15Z 15-18Z
KCLT High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100%
KGSP High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100%
KAVL High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100%
KHKY High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100%
KGMU High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100%
KAND High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100%
The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:
www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A Fire Danger statement for northeast GA and Upstate SC remains in
effect late today for mainly RH values aob 25 percent, but also a
few gusts above 20 mph. Fire weather conditions will be tricky for
Thursday as RH values may be a few percent higher, but with winds
perhaps exhibiting more gusts in the 20 to 30 mph range during the
afternoon. With 10-hr fuel moisture likely dipping well down into
the single digits once again, Fire Danger Statements are possible,
and even Red Flag conditions will have to be closely monitored.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORDS FOR 05-29
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 92 1941 53 1992 67 1991 40 1894
KCLT 98 1941 58 1992 74 1914 48 1894
1971
KGSP 98 1941 54 1992 70 1991 44 1901
1944
1941
RECORDS FOR 05-30
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 91 1969 56 1984 67 1941 40 1893
KCLT 95 1918 64 1930 73 1991 47 1884
1898 1982
KGSP 95 1914 65 1934 72 1941 45 1893
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Fire Danger Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ018-
026-028-029.
NC...None.
SC...Fire Danger Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for
SCZ001>014-019.
&&
SYNOPSIS...JMP
NEAR TERM...HG/JPT
SHORT TERM...JMP
LONG TERM...JMP
AVIATION...JPT
FIRE WEATHER...PM
CLIMATE...JMPHazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 1202 PM EDT Wed May 29 2019 GAZ010-017-NCZ033-035-048>053-058-059-062>065-501>510-301615- Rabun-Habersham-Avery-Alexander-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain- Haywood-Buncombe-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson- Transylvania-Henderson-Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell- Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell- Rutherford Mountains-Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk- 1202 PM EDT Wed May 29 2019 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia mountains, and the mountains and foothills of western North Carolina. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... None. SCZ001>003-301615- Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains- 1202 PM EDT Wed May 29 2019 ...FIRE DANGER STATEMENT IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the mountains of Upstate South Carolina. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. FIRE DANGER STATEMENT. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... None. GAZ018-026-028-029-SCZ004>014-019-301615- Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens- Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-Anderson-Abbeville- Laurens-Union-Chester-Greenwood- 1202 PM EDT Wed May 29 2019 ...FIRE DANGER STATEMENT IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia and Upstate South Carolina. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. FIRE DANGER STATEMENT. Temperatures in the mid 90s, along with modest humidity, will support Heat Index values around 95 this afternoon to early evening. Near record highs are expected. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. Near record high temperatures will continue Thursday, with Heat Index values likely peaking around 95 degrees during the afternoon. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... None. NCZ036-037-056-057-068>072-082-301615- Iredell-Davie-Catawba-Rowan-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg- Cabarrus-Union- 1202 PM EDT Wed May 29 2019 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for piedmont North Carolina. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Temperatures in the mid 90s, along with modest humidity, will support Heat Index values around 95 this afternoon to early evening. Near record highs are expected. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. Near record high temperatures will continue Thursday, with Heat Index values likely peaking around 95 degrees during the afternoon. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... None. HG
The Roanoke radar (KFCX), 145 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 21:59 UTC.
1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Emergency manager reported a large oak tree and a few pine trees uprooted. A house also had some shingle damage in this area.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in North Carolina in 2019Every state in 2019This day in weather historyWarnings in North Carolina, May 2019
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 829102.