Cold in North Carolina, March 5 to 6, 2019

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
640 PM EST Tue Mar 5 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A broad area of dry Canadian high pressure will remain over our
region through Thursday, before drifting out over the Atlantic.
A vigorous cold front will then approach the forecast area from
the west early Sunday, bringing another round of widespread
precipitation to the Carolinas. High pressure will spread back
over the region in the front's wake.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 635 pm: Arctic high pressure currently centered over the
Central Plains will continue to build/migrate into the Southeast
thru Wednesday. Gusty northwest winds continue this evening, esp
across the high terrain in response to a reinforcing cold front. The
gradient across the mountains tonight is not especially strong, and
a subsidence inversion looks to have a tempering effect on mixing.
Winds/gusts therefore are expected to remain below advisory criteria
except perhaps on the highest peaks. However, exceptionally cold
temps will result--the most trustworthy guidance suggests morning
mins will be in the single digits in the higher elevations, the
teens in the mtn valleys, and lower to mid 20s throughout the
Piedmont. These values are more than 15 degrees below current normal
values. Furthermore, they are around 10 degrees below the normal
mid-January mins, even. Wind chill values from the combination will
fall to between -5 and -20 at elevations above 3500 feet, so we will
maintain the Wind Chill Advisory for those areas.

Additionally, a very shallow moist layer develops in the upslope
areas near the Tenn border during the early morning. While this
layer is minuscule enough that we might normally not include a
PoP, the moistening is shown to occur at ideal ice nucleation
temperatures, and a couple of guidance members generate a tiny
bit of QPF. Most likely any precip that develops will amount only
to flurries, but we have introduced a mention of isolated snow
showers. The snow is likely to be quite dry and may blow away
before accumulating at all, but otherwise accumulation will be
virtually insignificant.

The pressure gradient will relax with the center of the high moving
nearer the CWFA tomorrow. Any upslope precip will diminish soon
after daybreak. Max temps will be similarly cold, and would be a
bit chilly even for January.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM EST Tuesday: On Thursday, the upper-level pattern
is fairly zonal and, therefore, benign in advance of a shortwave
trough ejecting out of the upper Plains.  With surface high pressure
sliding east of the area Thursday afternoon, weak southerly return
flow will allow high temperatures to moderate several degrees,
albeit still 6-8 degrees below normal highs. Precipitation chances
associated with the incoming shortwave energy are expected to
increase overnight Thursday as an 850mb ridge passes overhead and
slides east, allowing warm advection to increase above the surface,
but the onset of mountain precip is still expected to occur before
the column can completely warm above freezing later Friday morning.
GFS profiles reasonably suggest a quick transition from snow to
sleet/freezing rain before daybreak Friday for the higher elevations
of the southern and central NC mountains and all of the northern NC
mountains as a warm-nose develops aloft.  Regardless, only slight
chance to chance precipitation is forecasted across the region and
forecasted liquid equivalents from late Thursday to mid-morning
Friday are generally less than 0.10 inches.  Therefore, significant
impacts are not expected at this time.  By mid-morning Friday, warm
advection and surface heating will eliminate any remaining winter
precip challenges and the remainder of the event will consist
of periods of light rain through Friday night.  Total rainfall
accumulations through the end of the period Saturday morning will
not cause any flooding concerns despite the antecedent conditions
with totals generally less than 0.75 inches.  Warm advection will
not be significant enough to overcome cloud cover and periods of
rain on Friday with high temperatures generally still 4-8 degrees
below normal.  The current forecast maintains a relative lull in
rain chances late Friday overnight into Saturday morning as the
shortwave trough moves offshore Friday night while a shortwave
ridge rapidly propagates overhead in advance of a more significant
system over the Southern Plains.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 225 PM Tuesday: the extended fcst picks up at 00z on Saturday
with an upper ridge axis centered over the Mississippi River Valley
and deep upper trofing over the Western CONUS. Over the course of the
weekend, the ridge axis will pass over the CWFA and then lift off the
Atlantic Coast. As it does, the upper trof will move across the Great
Plains and lift northward towards the G Lakes, taking on a considerable
negative tilt as it does so. By early next week, we should be back
under flat upper ridging that will likely amplify by the end of the
period next Tues. At the surface, high pressure will have moved well
offshore by early Sat, as a substantial low strengthens over the Great
Plains. Over the next 24 hrs, this system is expected to lift towards
the Great Lakes and bring another cold front to our doorstep by early
Sunday. The long-range guidance has the front moving south and east
of the CWFA by late Sunday with drier high pressure spreading back
over the area in its wake. As such, the remainder of the period is
expected to be dry with Canadian high pressure spreading over the
region. Temps will remain above climatology thru the period.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR/mainly SKC at all terminals through
Wednesday. WNW winds expected at the Piedmont/foothills sites at
around 10 kts, perhaps with occl higher gusts this evening,
gradually diminishing this evening into the overnight, before
increasing to 5-10 kts after sunrise. Winds are then expected to
gradually shift to WSW during the afternoon. Meanwhile, winds at
KAVL are expected to remain in the 10-15 kts range with higher gusts
through the overnight and much of the morning.

Outlook: Precipitation chances and the probability of flight
restrictions will increase Thu into the weekend.

Confidence Table...

            23-05Z        05-11Z        11-17Z        17-18Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...Wind Chill Advisory until 10 AM EST Wednesday for NCZ033-
     048>052-058-059-062>064.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...JDL/Wimberley
SHORT TERM...JMP
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...JDL

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
434 PM EST Tue Mar 5 2019

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-
506-508-510-SCZ001>014-019-062145-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Alexander-Iredell-
Davie-Catawba-Rowan-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-
Union-Greater Caldwell-Greater Burke-Eastern McDowell-
Greater Rutherford-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-
Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-
Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-Anderson-Abbeville-
Laurens-Chester-Greenwood-
434 PM EST Tue Mar 5 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>064-505-062145-
Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Graham-
Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
McDowell Mountains-
434 PM EST Tue Mar 5 2019

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY ABOVE
3500 FEET...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Chill Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Chill Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

NCZ065-501-503-507-509-062145-
Henderson-Caldwell Mountains-Burke Mountains-Rutherford Mountains-
Polk Mountains-
434 PM EST Tue Mar 5 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Cold temperatures tonight and northwest winds will combine to push
wind chill values down into the single digits and near zero along
and near the Blue Ridge Escarpment by the early morning hours
Wednesday.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.