Hail and Damaging Winds in North Carolina, June 5, 2019

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
312 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A quick-moving weather disturbance will bring the risk for showers
and thunderstorms to central NC through this evening.  Then a cold
front will then settle south through NC Thursday night and Friday,
thus resulting in the chance for more rain.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 121 PM Wednesday

A short wave trough was noted in the water vapor imagery crossing
the upper Ohio Valley attm.  A large swath of showers and embedded
tstms were also noted on regional radar, occurring along and ahead
of this wave.  As the shower/tstm activity crossing the mountains
moves east into a more unstable environment across central NC (as
noted by current MLCAPE values ~2K J/kg)...we expect the activity to
grow vertically, perhaps into a broken line of showers and tstms
later this afternoon and evening, aided by a modest 0-6km bulk shear
values in the 20-30kt range.  Current and forecast DCAPE values
approaching 1000 J/kg suggest a threat for isolated instances of
damaging straight-line wind gusts with the tallest/strongest cells.

In the meantime, moist convergence across the coastal plain is
resulting in scattered fairly shallow showers (and a few isold
tstms) mainly east of I-95 attm.  Will monitor the evolution of
these cells and to what degree it affects the stability parameters
across e-central NC.

The primary line of showers/tstms later this afternoon and evening
are progged to exit to our east after 02Z.  Forecast soundings
suggest some shallow moisture manifesting in perhaps shallow stratus
overnight, esp where the heaviest rain has fallen.  Lows tonight in
the upper 60s to near 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 121 PM Wednesday...

Thursday morning is likely to start off dry, with subsidence in the
wake of today's passing short wave trough.  However, rain chances
will quickly increase again during the afternoon as convergence
increases invof of the Piedmont trough along with the cold front
approaching from the north.  The two will merge Thursday night as
the cold front begins to settle south across NC.  Meanwhile, the
leading edge of a plume of enhanced moisture (the plume of moisture
currently found across the NW Gulf of Mexico, SE TX, and SRN LA)
will begin overspreading the Carolinas Thursday night.  The the
combination of this moisture interacting with the aforementioned
cold front will set the stage for a wet period beginning late
Thursday and/or Thursday night.

Highs Thursday will warm into the upper 80s to around 90 ahead of
the approaching front.  Lows Thursday night will hold around 70 with
plenty of cloud cover and rain chances.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 315 PM Wednesday...

... Heavy rainfall threat continues across the Carolinas this
weekend and into early next week....

The long term will be characterized by multiple rounds of
precipitation with temperatures near normal. Friday an upper
level low will be located over Arkansas and be slowly heading
east as another low over southeastern Canada swings east. A
surface cold front extending south from Canada will stall across
southern Virginia Friday with multiple pockets of PV washing
across the region. PWATs at this time are also forecast to be
above 2.00" (or near daily records for this time of year). Given
the lift from the PV, stalled surface boundary, and record
moisture values showers and thunderstorms looks likely.

Saturday into Sunday the upper level low begins to stall over
Tennessee with central North Carolina remaining in the divergent
side of the trough axis. Given the strong lift and continued
anomalously high moisture values widespread showers and
thunderstorms will likely continue through Monday. By Tuesday
the upper level low that was over the southeastern United States
will begin to shear out as a stronger upper level low dives
south out of Manitoba. The main concern with these multiple
rounds of precipitation will be the flooding potential. The
overall thinking is for rainfall totals through Tuesday of 2 to
5" possible.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 121 PM Wednesday...

Through 18Z Thursday: Scattered showers and tstms will be the rule
today through at least 01z this evening, and in and near the tstms
we can expect IFR conditions and locally gusty/variable winds.
Outside of shower/tstms activity, look for wide coverage of MVFR
cigs with local VFR. After 03Z this evening, local to areas of IFR
cigs are possible, esp areas that receive the heaviest rain.
Otherwise, high clouds will be the rule.

After 18Z Thursday and beyond: An unsettled pattern will evolve
across the Carolinas later this week through early next week, as a
frontal zone wavers over the region and is overrun by deep moisture
and lift downstream of a slowly-approaching mid to upr-level
low/trough. Periods of IFR-MVFR conditions will result during the
overnight-early morning hours, transitioning through early afternoon
to MVFR to VFR ones, with scattered to numerous showers and storms
that will be maximized with diurnal heating each day.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...NP
NEAR TERM...NP
SHORT TERM...NP
LONG TERM...Haines
AVIATION...NP

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
238 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2019

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-061945-
Person-Granville-Vance-Warren-Halifax-Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance-
Orange-Durham-Franklin-Nash-Edgecombe-Davidson-Randolph-Chatham-Wake-
Johnston-Wilson-Stanly-Montgomery-Moore-Lee-Harnett-Wayne-Anson-
Richmond-Scotland-Hoke-Cumberland-Sampson-
238 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2019

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 330 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

Thunderstorms this afternoon into this evening will pose a primary
risk of damaging wind gusts, with some hail in the most intense
storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

The approach of a slow-moving upper level system interacting with a
stationary frontal zone across the region will bring wet and
unsettled weather conditions Friday through early next week. The
potential for multiple days of moderate to heavy rainfall will
result in an increased threat for flash flooding, especially west of
the Triangle.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

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