Hail and Damaging Winds in North Carolina, August 19, 2019

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
200 PM EDT Mon Aug 19 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
An area of low pressure and elevated moisture will persist across
the western Carolinas and northeast Georgia through Wednesday. A
moist cold front will approach the region Thursday and become
stationary on Friday. The front will gradually settle south of the
area through the weekend as high pressure builds in from the north
and maintains cooler than normal temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 155 PM EDT Monday: Main update for the 18Z TAF issuance,
along with minor adjustments made to temperatures/PoPs to
coincide with latest trends, as the rest of the near term
forecast remains on track. With temperatures already well into
the upper 80s/lower 90s, convection is already blossoming across
the area.

Otherwise, the previous discussion is as follows: There will be a
couple of vort maxes that will meander over the Carolinas and GA
today between two ridges of high pressure at 500 mb---one over the
southern plains and the other over the Atlantic. They will not
provide much upper forcing due to their slow motions. However,
guidance is in good agreement on a pocket of slightly cooler temps
within this weakness aloft, which should result in strong
destabilization this aftn across the region. With sbCAPE in the 2000-
3000 J/kg range today and plenty of mid-lvl dry air along with 0-3
km shear less than 10 kts, the atmosphere will be supportive of
microbursts. Thus, expect scattered storms to develop this
afternoon, continuing into the early evening hours.  Temps will be
similar to yesterday's readings, which are a couple categories above
normal. Dewpts in the upper 60s to lower 70s will result in heat
index values in the 95-100 deg range, with a few spots slightly over
100 across the piedmont.

Convection should steadily wane mid to late evening, but a few
isolated showers could linger into the overnight. A weak low over
southern GA may start to drift slowly north overnight, bringing a
very light moist upslope SELY flow atop the FA. This flow may also
help some stratus to develop and expand across much of the piedmont
to the escarpment. The clouds will hold min temps slightly above
normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 2 am EDT Monday: A weak 500 mb trough axis will persist
atop the forecast area on Tuesday between offshore Bermuda high
pressure and stronger higher pressure centered over the southern
plains. The best plume of above climo precipitable water will
stretch across piedmont areas. Moisture filling in at mid-
levels, slightly weaker lapse rates, and more clouds keeping
temperatures in check should reduce the severe weather potential
a touch below Monday values.

The weakness in the height field will persist on Wednesday. Moisture
will continue to increase in profiles, but lapse rates will start to
steepen back up a bit to permit better afternoon instability and a
modest severe thunderstorm/heavy rain threat. Confidence, however,
is low on this given the uncertain forcing.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 230 am EDT Monday: More prominent height falls will develop
from the northwest on Thursday. Deep moisture and better forcing
should arrive during peak heating Thursday afternoon and evening as
a surface cold front begins to approach from the northwest.
Anticipate an uptick in PoP, with high end likely thunderstorm
coverage in the northwest half by late Thursday, and solid scattered
coverage southeast. Wind shear will be limited despite the falling
heights, and moistening profiles will make the instability, and
associated severe thunderstorm threat, a bit uncertain.

The frontal boundary will slow or stall across the region on Friday,
with a very moist axis of PWAT values at or above two inches draped
over the region. Showers and thunderstorms will become increasingly
widespread given the moisture, forcing, and instability. With high
pressure building to the north of the area into the weekend, cold
air damming conditions may set up across the western Carolinas east
of the Blue Ridge mountains by Saturday as the boundary slowly
settles southward. Moist cold air damming could persist into Sunday
as the boundary moves just south of the area. Anticipate smaller
diurnal ranges on temperatures over the weekend with the cold air
damming in place.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR prevails at all TAF sites this afternoon,
with convection already blossoming across the entire forecast area.
Thus, all TAF sites have prevailing VCSH/VCTS for the afternoon
hours, with TEMPO groups to account for possible short-lived flight
restrictions due to any SHRA/TSRA that moves over a TAF site. Expect
convection to wane into tonight, with lingering mid to high level
clouds and light winds. Latest fcst soundings continue to suggest
the potential for stratus, while some are hinting at fog
development. Confidence is low in regards to fog given the
anticipated cloud cover, but attm, could not entirely rule it out
towards daybreak.

Outlook: The potential for afternoon/evening showers and
thunderstorms is expected to increase throughout the week, as a cold
front approaches from the NW into Thursday. Morning fog and low
stratus will be possible each day across the mountain valleys.
Otherwise, expect VFR.

Confidence Table...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High  97%
KAVL       High 100%     High 100%     High  88%     High  91%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High  92%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High  95%     High  90%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...HG
NEAR TERM...ARK/SGL
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...HG
AVIATION...ARK

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
432 AM EDT Mon Aug 19 2019

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-200845-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Avery-Alexander-
Iredell-Davie-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Catawba-
Rowan-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Henderson-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-
Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Chester-Greenwood-
432 AM EDT Mon Aug 19 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, Piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina, and Upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop across the area this
afternoon, especially near the eastern escarpment of the Blue Ridge
Mountains. Cloud-to-ground lightning, brief heavy downpours, and
locally gusty winds will be the primary threats with these
thunderstorms. A few of the storms may be strong enough to produce
damaging wind gusts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are requested to forward any reports of large hail,
damaging winds, or flash flooding to our office.

HG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
118 PM EDT Mon Aug 19 2019

GAZ010-NCZ062-063-191800-
Rabun GA-Southern Jackson NC-Macon NC-
118 PM EDT Mon Aug 19 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH INTENSE LIGHTNING WILL IMPACT
NORTHEASTERN RABUN...SOUTHEASTERN MACON AND SOUTH CENTRAL JACKSON
COUNTIES UNTIL 200 PM EDT...

At 118 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm with
intense lightning 12 miles southeast of Franklin, or near Highlands.
This storm was nearly stationary.

Locations to be impacted include...
Highlands, Cashiers, Lake Glenville, Scaly Mountain, Whiteside
Mountain and Pine Mountain.

In addition to intense lightning, wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea
size hail will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent lightning is occurring with this storm. If outdoors, try to
get indoors or into a hard topped vehicle. Otherwise, stay away from
open areas and isolated high objects such as trees. When indoors,
stay away from windows and doors and avoid using wired electronic
devices. Do not take a shower or bath. Try to unplug unnecessary
appliances before the storm approaches.

&&

LAT...LON 3519 8312 3508 8304 3506 8305 3504 8303
      3504 8302 3501 8306 3500 8311 3499 8310
      3491 8325 3506 8335
TIME...MOT...LOC 1718Z 331DEG 3KT 3509 8318

WJM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
137 PM EDT Mon Aug 19 2019

NCZ082-191815-
Union NC-
137 PM EDT Mon Aug 19 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH INTENSE LIGHTNING WILL IMPACT
SOUTHEASTERN UNION COUNTY UNTIL 215 PM EDT...

At 136 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm with
intense lightning 14 miles northeast of Monroe, or 7 miles northeast
of Marshville, moving southeast at 5 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Marshville, Sturdivants and New Salem.

In addition to intense lightning, wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea
size hail will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent lightning is occurring with this storm. If outdoors, try to
get indoors or into a hard topped vehicle. Otherwise, stay away from
open areas and isolated high objects such as trees. When indoors,
stay away from windows and doors and avoid using wired electronic
devices. Do not take a shower or bath. Try to unplug unnecessary
appliances before the storm approaches.

&&

LAT...LON 3482 8032 3481 8033 3481 8038 3509 8045
      3517 8028
TIME...MOT...LOC 1736Z 329DEG 6KT 3508 8031

WJM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
146 PM EDT Mon Aug 19 2019

NCZ049-050-503-505-191830-
McDowell Mountains NC-Yancey NC-Burke Mountains NC-Mitchell NC-
146 PM EDT Mon Aug 19 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH INTENSE LIGHTNING WILL IMPACT CENTRAL
MCDOWELL...SOUTHEASTERN MITCHELL AND SOUTHEASTERN YANCEY COUNTIES
UNTIL 230 PM EDT...

At 146 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm with
intense lightning near Spruce Pine, moving southwest at 5 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Spruce Pine, B.R. Parkway-Little Switzerland To Linville, Mount
Mitchell State Park, B.R. Parkway-Craggy To Little Switzerland, North
Cove, Busick, Pleasant Gardens, Celo, Ashford and Little Switzerland.

In addition to intense lightning, wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea
size hail will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent lightning is occurring with this storm. If outdoors, try to
get indoors or into a hard topped vehicle. Otherwise, stay away from
open areas and isolated high objects such as trees. When indoors,
stay away from windows and doors and avoid using wired electronic
devices. Do not take a shower or bath. Try to unplug unnecessary
appliances before the storm approaches.

&&

LAT...LON 3586 8190 3574 8198 3571 8203 3565 8206
      3580 8231 3597 8208
TIME...MOT...LOC 1746Z 037DEG 6KT 3586 8205

WJM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
151 PM EDT Mon Aug 19 2019

SCZ012-019-191815-
Laurens SC-Greenwood SC-
151 PM EDT Mon Aug 19 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH INTENSE LIGHTNING WILL IMPACT
SOUTHWESTERN LAURENS AND NORTHWESTERN GREENWOOD COUNTIES UNTIL 215 PM
EDT...

At 151 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm with
intense lightning 8 miles north of Greenwood, or near Cokesbury,
moving south at 10 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Greenwood, Cokesbury, Waterloo, Hodges, Ware Shoals, Lake Greenwood
and Coronaca.

In addition to intense lightning, wind gusts up to 40 mph will be
possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent lightning is occurring with this storm. If outdoors, try to
get indoors or into a hard topped vehicle. Otherwise, stay away from
open areas and isolated high objects such as trees. When indoors,
stay away from windows and doors and avoid using wired electronic
devices. Do not take a shower or bath. Try to unplug unnecessary
appliances before the storm approaches.

&&

LAT...LON 3422 8225 3427 8229 3440 8224 3437 8202
      3420 8202
TIME...MOT...LOC 1751Z 007DEG 7KT 3432 8215

KRENTZ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
154 PM EDT Mon Aug 19 2019

NCZ033-501-502-191845-
Caldwell Mountains NC-Greater Caldwell NC-Avery NC-
154 PM EDT Mon Aug 19 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH INTENSE LIGHTNING WILL IMPACT NORTHERN
CALDWELL AND EAST CENTRAL AVERY COUNTIES UNTIL 245 PM EDT...

At 154 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm with
intense lightning near Blowing Rock, or near Blowing Rock In Caldwell
County, moving southwest at 5 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Blowing Rock In Caldwell County, Grandfather Mountain State Park,
B.R. Parkway-Linville Falls To Grandfather, Edgemont, Globe,
Collettsville, Patterson, Upton and Linville.

In addition to intense lightning, wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea
size hail will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent lightning is occurring with this storm. If outdoors, try to
get indoors or into a hard topped vehicle. Otherwise, stay away from
open areas and isolated high objects such as trees. When indoors,
stay away from windows and doors and avoid using wired electronic
devices. Do not take a shower or bath. Try to unplug unnecessary
appliances before the storm approaches.

&&

LAT...LON 3612 8155 3610 8152 3610 8149 3604 8140
      3588 8165 3606 8190 3611 8181 3612 8168
TIME...MOT...LOC 1754Z 042DEG 6KT 3610 8163

WJM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
205 PM EDT Mon Aug 19 2019

NCZ053-065-191845-
Buncombe NC-Henderson NC-
205 PM EDT Mon Aug 19 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHERN HENDERSON AND SOUTH
CENTRAL BUNCOMBE COUNTIES UNTIL 245 PM EDT...

At 204 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles south of Downtown Asheville, or near Skyland, moving south at 5
mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Hendersonville, Arden, Mills River, Fletcher, Fairview In Buncombe
County, Mountain Home, Biltmore Forest, Bent Creek, Asheville Airport
and B.R. Parkway-Nc Arboretum To East Asheville.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail will be possible in these
areas.

LAT...LON 3554 8262 3557 8240 3535 8231 3532 8264
TIME...MOT...LOC 1804Z 354DEG 5KT 3550 8250

WJM