What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Apr 14, 1:39 PM EST, 1 minute earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Apr 14, 1:39 PM EST, 1 minute before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
239 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2019
.SYNOPSIS...
A strong system will bring more widespread storms to the area on
this afternoon and tonight, with severe weather possible. Dry
weather conditions will prevail through mid-week, with showers and
thunderstorms returning at the end of the week with an approaching
cold front.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Sunday: Main concern remains for this afternoon and
evening with potential for severe convection. The upper low will
continue to lift toward the Great Lakes tonight with the surface
low, as a front is dragged through our area. As is always the case,
amount of destabilization is a major factor; temperatures have
hovered in the low 70s here at GSP all day, though the dewpoint has
been creeping up since this morning. 12z global and updated hires
guidance still shows concern for at least brief maximization of
destabilization corresponding with the crazy shear associated with
the incoming system, with ~1000J/kg SBCAPE and 70-80kt deep-layer
shear (30-40kt 0-1km shear). Initial convection across the area at
AFD time is progged by CAMs to intensify as it moves east into the
better airmass over the Piedmont, with another round of convection
progged by all the CAMs to develop along the actual front, moving
into western zones late this afternoon and crossing the area through
the evening, weakening before it exits. 1630z Day 1 update from SPC
removed the Enhanced from our area, but 5% tornado and 15% wind
threat remains. Parameters and CAMs all point to potential for
significant activity yet to come, but real-time observations and
lack of real upward trend on radar definitely reduce confidence.
Models want to develop a bit of a lee low along the front as it
pushes off the mountains, which is certainly possible with the
mechanical stretching, and this would serve to locally back the
winds and enhance the low-level SRH. For now, overall no major
changes to thinking, and despite the risk going from Enhanced to
Slight with the 1630z update, concerns definitely remain elevated.
Tornado watch just issued for NC brings almost all the Piedmont
Counties into the watch.
Strong gradient winds along and immediately behind the front will
continua especially across the mountains, but will let the High
Wind Warning expire at 02z. Gap winds overnight coming off the
higher elevations may lead to some minor wind concerns in the
Piedmont. Moisture and CAA may result in some light snow at the
higher elevations, but not enough for an advisory of any sort. Much
cooler tonight behind the front, a good 20 degrees cooler than this
morning's lows, and freezing in the mountains (frost/freeze program
not turned on up there). Strong CAA will result in highs 5-10
degrees below normal on Monday, breezy conditions continuing.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 215 PM EDT Sunday: Ridging aloft and high pressure near the
surface will provide quiet weather with mostly clear skies and light
winds through the short term, Monday night through Wednesday
evening. Surface high pressure over the region Monday night will
likely support below normal lows in the mid 30s to mid 40s, warming
nicely into the upper 50s (mtns) to 60s to near 70 east of the mtns
Tuesday under nearly full April sunshine. Surface high pressure
pushing off the east coast will allow weak southerly return flow
Tuesday night into Wednesday. This along with high clouds possibly
streaming through the region will support lows in the mid 40s to
possibly mid 50s by early Wednesday morning rising well into the 70s
and possibly near 80 (depending on amt of high clouds) Wednesday
afternoon.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 220 PM EDT Sunday: ...From previous discussion due to
ongoing severe weather... Latest guidance continues to come into
better agreement on the timing of another approaching cold front
towards end of the work week. Per latest guidance, with sfc high
pressure offshore, sfc low over the central Plains will continue to
strengthen as it very slowly propagates northeastward towards the
Upper Midwest through into Friday. Aloft, southern stream trough
will strengthen and deepen as it shifts eastward, joining the
northern wave energy and becoming an upper closed low. Nearly
expanding across most of the CONUS, the center of this feature will
eject into the upper Midwest into Friday night, while at the sfc,
the parent low's cold front will already be in the process of
pushing eastward through the FA in the morning hours. Given how far
out this feature is, there's still plenty of time for temporal and
spatial changes, but overall anticipate shower and thunderstorm
chances to return as early as Thursday. Ahead of the front where the
Southeast will once again be well in the warm sector, it'll be
another Spring-like system on tap for the last weekend in April,
with dewpoints nearing 60 degrees and high temperatures on Thursday
ranging from the mid 70s to near 80 degrees south of the I-85
corridor and in and around the Charlotte Metro area. Behind the
exiting system, upper troughing will linger and swing overhead
Saturday and Saturday night, with lingering precip along the TN
border possible, where elsewhere, a drying trend will be already
occurring. Though temperatures will drop to below normal behind the
exiting front, do anticipate temperatures attm to remain above
freezing in the mountains, thus do not anticipate any mention of
snow attm.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Mostly MVFR cigs out there this afternoon and
should continue with pockets of VFR, and maybe some pockets of IFR
briefly. Biggest concern is timing of convection, and difficulty is
that we're looking at two rounds - the first developing across the
area right now, and the second expected with the front moving
through generally after 00z. Have handled this with two TEMPOs for
most sites except KHKY which may be too stable for the second round.
Severe potential continues for all sites with gusty winds, hail, and
isolated tornadoes possible. Gusty post-frontal gradient winds will
continue through the end of the period, especially at KAVL. Timing
of wind shift to NW probably around 09z for KCLT.
Outlook: VFR conditions will continue through mid-week.
Confidence Table...
18-24Z 00-06Z 06-12Z 12-18Z
KCLT High 86% High 87% High 100% High 100%
KGSP Med 77% High 91% High 100% High 100%
KAVL Med 64% High 95% High 100% High 100%
KHKY Med 79% High 90% High 100% High 100%
KGMU High 89% High 94% High 100% High 100%
KAND Med 79% High 97% High 100% High 100%
The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:
www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...High Wind Warning until 10 PM EDT this evening for NCZ033-
048>052-058-059-062>064.
SC...None.
&&
SYNOPSIS...SGL
NEAR TERM...TDP
SHORT TERM...Munroe
LONG TERM...SGL
AVIATION...TDPHazardous weather outlook, Apr 14, 5:10 AM EST, 8 hours 30 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
610 AM EDT Sun Apr 14 2019
GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-065-068>072-082-
501>504-506>510-SCZ001>014-019-151015-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Alexander-Iredell-
Davie-Catawba-Rowan-Henderson-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-
Cabarrus-Union-Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-
Greater Burke-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-
Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Chester-Greenwood-
610 AM EDT Sun Apr 14 2019
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.
.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.
Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected today. The primary threat
will be damaging winds, though large hail and isolated tornadoes
cannot be ruled out. Heavy rain may lead to isolated flash flooding,
especially in areas that experience multiple rounds of thunderstorms.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.
No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotters are requested to forward any reports of large hail,
damaging winds, tornadoes, or flash flooding to our office.
NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>064-505-151015-
Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Graham-
Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
McDowell Mountains-
610 AM EDT Sun Apr 14 2019
...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING ABOVE
3500 FEET...
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western North Carolina.
.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.
Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.
High Wind Warning.
Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected today. The primary threat
will be damaging winds, though large hail and isolated tornadoes
cannot be ruled out. Heavy rain may lead to isolated flash flooding,
especially in areas that experience multiple rounds of thunderstorms.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.
No hazardous weather is expected.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotters are requested to forward any reports of large hail,
damaging winds, tornadoes, or flash flooding to our office.
SGL
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Apr 14, 12:22 PM EST, 1 hour 18 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
122 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2019
GAZ018-026-028-SCZ004-010-141745-
Hart GA-Franklin GA-Stephens GA-Greater Oconee SC-Anderson SC-
122 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2019
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT FRANKLIN...SOUTHEASTERN
STEPHENS...HART...WEST CENTRAL ANDERSON AND SOUTHEASTERN OCONEE
COUNTIES UNTIL 145 PM EDT...
At 122 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles southwest of Carnesville, or 6 miles north of Ila, moving
northeast at 55 mph.
Locations to be impacted include...
Hartwell, Carnesville, Royston, Reed Creek, Lavonia, Gumlog, Canon,
Franklin Springs, Bowersville and Martin.
Wind gusts up to 45 mph will be possible in these areas.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio and tv
stations, as well as local cable tv outlets for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.
&&
A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 700 PM EDT for northeastern
Georgia...and Upstate South Carolina.
LAT...LON 3425 8334 3426 8334 3433 8339 3434 8339
3467 8303 3443 8269 3424 8309 3427 8312
3424 8317 3425 8320 3424 8325 3426 8330
3423 8335
TIME...MOT...LOC 1722Z 231DEG 49KT 3427 8330
RMSpecial weather statement, Apr 14, 12:56 PM EST, 44 minutes before
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</html>Local storm report, Apr 14, 1:07 PM EST, 33 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
207 PM EDT SUN APR 14 2019
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0142 PM TSTM WND DMG LAVONIA 34.44N 83.11W
04/14/2019 FRANKLIN GA COUNTY OFFICIAL
MANY TREES AND POWERLINES BLOWN DOWN. ONE TREE DOWN ON
HOUSE.
&&
KRENTZLocal storm report, Apr 14, 1:33 PM EST, 7 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
233 PM EDT SUN APR 14 2019
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0214 PM TSTM WND DMG 5 W PUMPKINTOWN 35.00N 82.74W
04/14/2019 PICKENS SC COUNTY OFFICIAL
A COUPLE TREES BLOWN DOWN ON HWY 11.
&&
KRENTZSpecial weather statement, Apr 14, 1:34 PM EST, 6 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
234 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2019
NCZ065-509-510-SCZ002-003-005>007-141900-
Henderson NC-Polk Mountains NC-Eastern Polk NC-Pickens Mountains SC-
Greater Pickens SC-Greenville Mountains SC-Spartanburg SC-
Greater Greenville SC-
234 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2019
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN HENDERSON...
SOUTHWESTERN POLK...NORTHEASTERN GREENVILLE...NORTHWESTERN
SPARTANBURG AND NORTHEASTERN PICKENS COUNTIES UNTIL 300 PM EDT...
At 233 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 6
miles northeast of Easley, or 4 miles northwest of Berea, moving
northeast at 45 mph.
Locations to be impacted include...
Columbus, Berea, Travelers Rest, Landrum, Slater-Marietta, Tryon,
Campobello, Saluda, Paris Mountain State Park and Tigerville.
Wind gusts up to 55 mph and half inch hail will be possible in these
areas.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio and tv
stations, as well as local cable tv outlets for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.
&&
A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 700 PM EDT for Upstate South
Carolina. A Tornado Watch also remains in effect until 800 PM EDT for
western North Carolina.
LAT...LON 3492 8267 3536 8230 3519 8204 3481 8248
3482 8248 3480 8252
TIME...MOT...LOC 1833Z 226DEG 53KT 3491 8253
CarrollSpecial weather statement, Apr 14, 1:36 PM EST, 4 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
236 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2019
GAZ018-SCZ001-002-004-005-141900-
Stephens GA-Pickens Mountains SC-Greater Pickens SC-
Greater Oconee SC-Oconee Mountains SC-
236 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2019
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL STEPHENS...WEST CENTRAL
PICKENS AND CENTRAL OCONEE COUNTIES UNTIL 300 PM EDT...
At 236 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles northeast of Toccoa, moving northeast at 40 mph.
Locations to be impacted include...
Seneca, Walhalla, Toccoa, Westminster, Six Mile, Salem, Lake Keowee,
Oconee State Park, Avalon and Devils Fork State Park.
Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail will be possible in these
areas.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio and tv
stations, as well as local cable tv outlets for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.
&&
A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 700 PM EDT for northeastern
Georgia...and Upstate South Carolina.
LAT...LON 3450 8320 3462 8336 3500 8302 3482 8277
TIME...MOT...LOC 1836Z 221DEG 36KT 3463 8322
Carroll