Multiple severe weather hazards occurred during the afternoon and evening hours of Wednesday, August 21st, 2019, due to a strong upper level shortwave moving into a humid and unstable airmass. This set up resulted in multiple severe thunderstorms, flooding and two confirmed tornadoes with damage across much of the region.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS ALY wrote it up.
Multiple severe weather hazards occurred during the afternoon and evening hours of Wednesday, August 21st, 2019, due to a strong upper level shortwave moving into a humid and unstable airmass. This set up resulted in multiple severe thunderstorms, flooding and two confirmed tornadoes with damage across much of the region. Over 10,000 people lost power and the Washington County Fair closed for the day.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Albany, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 21, 3:09 AM EST, 59 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 409 AM EDT Wed Aug 21 2019 .SYNOPSIS... It will become warm and muggy today as a warm front tracks northward. Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected today into this evening, with some storms possibly becoming severe. Additional rain showers are possible on Thursday into Thursday night as a cold front slowly crosses the area. Fair and cool weather is forecast for Friday into Saturday, with isolated showers possible by Sunday as an upper level disturbance passes nearby. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Slight Risk for Severe Thunderstorms across eastern NY and adjacent western New England for today... As of 410 AM EDT, clusters of showers and thunderstorms have rapidly developed ahead of an approaching warm front, with most concentrated activity currently entering the Mohawk Valley and tracking northeast. Expect showers and thunderstorms to continue through daybreak, with locally heavy downpours and frequent lightning possible. This initial band of showers/storms seems to be tied to a surge of mid level warm advection, with the nose of a strengthening low level jet segment approaching from the northern mid Atlantic states. Additional showers and thunderstorms were ongoing across western NYS and PA. These showers/storms were closer to a mid/upper level shortwave located across the central/eastern Great Lakes. It is this feature that looks to bring the main threat for severe thunderstorms today. As this wave approaches from the west, south to southwest winds within the mid levels of the atmosphere are expected to increase to 30-40 KT, resulting in strong deep-layer shear. Combined with increasing instability with HREF mean MUCAPE reaching 1000-2000 J/kg, should support organized convection late this morning through at least mid afternoon. It appears that the greatest threat for severe thunderstorms will be from the eastern Mohawk Valley into the Saratoga region, and points south and east, possibly maximized immediately south and east of the Capital Region into the mid Hudson Valley, NW CT and into Berkshire County where instability may be slightly greater if breaks in the clouds briefly develop later this morning. Main threats will be damaging winds, however large hail will also be possible with the strongest storms due to the rather strong deep layer shear. In addition, low level helicity (both 0-1 km and 0-3 km) increase to over 100 m2/s2 within portions of the Hudson River Valley and points east early this afternoon. So, can not rule out a tornado or two. Heavy rainfall will also be a threat today, as there is some potential for training/backbuilding of cells, despite relatively quick forward movement. This potential may be maximized across portions of the Mohawk Valley, Saratoga County into southern VT, where enhanced low level convergence is suggested by some mesoscale models. Isolated flash flooding may occur if cells train and repeated thunderstorms occur in any location. Otherwise, even non-training cells will easily have the potential to cause ponding of water in poor drainage, urban and low lying areas. It appears the best potential for severe thunderstorms time-wise may be roughly between noon and 4 PM, with a possible decrease in severe threat from west to east after 4 PM as the mid level wave passes into New England. Highs reaching the mid 70s to lower 80s most areas, although some mid/upper 80s could occur if some sun breaks through at times within the mid Hudson Valley and lower elevations in NW CT. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Tonight, there still could be isolated to scattered thunderstorms through midnight, as mid level heights continue lowering with the approach of the main trough and surface cold front from the west. Convective chances should decrease after midnight, with patchy/areas of fog possibly developing. Lows mainly in the 60s. Thursday, the surface cold front will slowly cross the region from NW to SE, with the approach of a positively tilted trough from the Great Lakes. Isolated showers will remain possible until the front passes, and can not rule out some non-severe thunderstorms across portions of the mid Hudson Valley and NW CT during the early-mid afternoon hours as HREF mean MU CAPES reach 500-1000 J/kg. Highs should reach the lower/mid 80s in valley areas, and 70s most higher terrain areas. Some upper 80s may occur across portions of the mid Hudson Valley where downsloping NW winds will be possible. Thursday night, the 00Z/21 NAM and ECMWF suggest a wave of low pressure potentially ripples along the frontal boundary to our south. This may allow showers to redevelop and expand as far north as the I-90 corridor. Have indicated slight chance to low chance PoPs to account for this possibility. Lows in the 50s to lower 60s. Friday-Friday night, cooler and less humid conditions are expected. Still can not rule out an isolated shower Friday with the passage of the main upper level trough/cold pool, with chances mainly across northern areas. Highs Friday mainly in the 70s in valleys, with some 60s across higher terrain areas. Lows Friday night in the 50s, with 40s possible across northern areas. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Despite some differences in the modeled flow pattern between the ECMWF and NCEP camps, fairly good agreement that the long term period will have very low probability of hazardous weather. The airmass will likely be fairly dry with model consensus of PWATs less than 0.75 inches for the most part except perhaps for Tuesday. The main difference within the medium range guidance is that the last two runs of the ECMWF show a deeper and westward-shifted trough compared with the GFS/GEFS mean. The ECMWF suggests this low cuts off and hovers over the region for Sunday/Monday, while the GFS/GEFS mean shunt the trough eastward and do not develop a cutoff, allowing the upstream ridge to build overhead. The difference in the sensible weather with a cutoff would likely be more cloud cover and perhaps some diurnal showers. At this time, will lean toward the NCEP solution noting the absence of GEFS members showing a cutoff. The upshot is a dry forecast for Saturday through Monday with comfortable humidity levels and temperatures near to slightly below normal. Will introduce chance PoPs for Tuesday as the GFS and some GEFS members indicate the ridge shifting east with ascent and moisture return ahead of an advancing trough. && .AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 0530Z, mainly clear skies over the terminals with bands of cirrus advancing from the west. Typical fog has developed at KGFL, and expect this to continue at times through around 10Z or so when it may dissipate some as a thicker area of midlevel clouds approaches. In the 10-14Z timeframe, there are signals that showers and possibly some isolated thunderstorms will develop along a diffuse warm front. Handled this with prevailing SHRA and VCTS. Will keep flying conditions VFR with this activity, but there could be some MVFR cigs/vsby and even potentially some IFR if a heavier downpour associated with a TS develops. Attention then turns to potential for convection from the late morning into the evening. Low confidence forecast with respect to timing and coverage of convection. Lingering cloud cover and showers in the late morning/early afternoon may hamper instability, especially at KGFL. However, there is enough of a signal to mention PROB30 for TS at all terminals. For KGFL/KALB, the most favored timeframe is 17-21Z, while at KPOU/KPSF it is 18-24Z. If breaks in the clouds/showers develop late morning into early afternoon, strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible with damaging winds and large hail becoming the hazards. Brief periods of IFR vsby is possible in heavier showers and thunderstorms during this timeframe, but outside of thunderstorms expect mainly VFR conditions with stratocumulus based around 3.5-5kft AGL. After 00Z.22, showers and thunderstorms will decrease in intensity and coverage. Some mist may develop where rainfall occurred earlier, especially at KGFL/KPSF. Winds will remain less than 10 kt through the TAF period, becoming mainly southerly during the day today. Outlook... Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy NO SIG WX. Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. && .FIRE WEATHER... It will become warm and muggy today as a warm front tracks northward. Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected today into this evening, with some storms possibly becoming severe. Additional rain showers are possible on Thursday into Thursday night as a cold front slowly crosses the area. Fair and cool weather is forecast for Friday into Saturday, with isolated showers possible by Sunday as an upper level disturbance passes nearby. && .HYDROLOGY... An anomalously moist airmass will spread back into the region today with PWAT values increasing to 1.50-2.00 inches. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop in the moist airmass, and any storm will be capable of heavy rainfall. Though individual storms may be fast moving, there is potential for repeated rounds of storms which will lead to the threat of urban/poor drainage flooding and possible isolated flash flooding. Isolated showers are possible Thursday, with showers possible across southern areas Thursday night. Mainly dry conditions are expected Friday into Saturday. For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && SYNOPSIS...SND/KL NEAR TERM...KL SHORT TERM...KL LONG TERM...Thompson AVIATION...Thompson FIRE WEATHER...MSE/KL/Thompson HYDROLOGY...MSE/KL/Thompson
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Albany NY 419 AM EDT Wed Aug 21 2019 CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066- 082>084-VTZ013>015-221100- Northern Litchfield-Southern Litchfield-Northern Berkshire- Southern Berkshire-Northern Herkimer-Hamilton-Southern Herkimer- Southern Fulton-Montgomery-Northern Saratoga-Northern Warren- Northern Washington-Schoharie-Western Schenectady- Eastern Schenectady-Southern Saratoga-Western Albany-Eastern Albany- Western Rensselaer-Eastern Rensselaer-Western Greene-Eastern Greene- Western Columbia-Eastern Columbia-Western Ulster-Eastern Ulster- Western Dutchess-Eastern Dutchess-Northern Fulton-Southeast Warren- Southern Washington-Bennington-Western Windham-Eastern Windham- 419 AM EDT Wed Aug 21 2019 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwestern Connecticut, western Massachusetts, east central New York, eastern New York and southern Vermont. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Thunderstorms are likely today into early tonight. There is a slight risk for severe thunderstorms, with the main threat being damaging wind gusts. Large hail and an isolated tornado can not be ruled out. Locally heavy rainfall may lead to urban and poor drainage flooding, with isolated flash flooding possible. Thunderstorms will generally move from the west southwest, toward the east northeast at 25 to 30 mph. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. Isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of the mid Hudson Valley and northwest Connecticut Thursday afternoon. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed today.
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albany NY
343 AM EDT Wed Aug 21 2019
NYZ038>040-047-210830-
Southern Fulton-Schoharie-Southern Herkimer-Montgomery-
343 AM EDT Wed Aug 21 2019
...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN FULTON...
NORTHWESTERN SCHOHARIE...SOUTHERN HERKIMER AND MONTGOMERY COUNTIES...
At 343 AM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from near West Winfield to Ames. Movement was
northeast at 25 mph.
Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with these
storms.
Locations impacted include...
Amsterdam, Johnstown, Little Falls, Canajoharie, Fonda, Fort Plain,
St. Johnsville, Ephratah, Hagaman, West Winfield, Sharon Springs,
Fort Johnson, Ames, Jordanville, Tribes Hill, Glen, Charleston,
Warren, Fultonville and Palatine Bridge.
This includes Interstate 90 between exits 27 and 29A.
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
LAT...LON 4304 7485 4299 7410 4298 7410 4292 7409
4277 7453 4278 7467 4283 7465 4290 7488
4284 7489 4282 7491 4291 7510 4286 7514
4286 7521 4287 7521
TIME...MOT...LOC 0743Z 245DEG 20KT 4286 7513 4284 7459
DBTSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albany NY
428 AM EDT Wed Aug 21 2019
MAZ025-NYZ060-061-210915-
Southern Berkshire-Eastern Columbia-Western Columbia-
428 AM EDT Wed Aug 21 2019
...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN BERKSHIRE
AND SOUTHERN COLUMBIA COUNTIES...
At 428 AM EDT, strong thunderstorms were clustered near Ancram, or 11
miles east of Saugerties, moving northeast at 25 mph.
Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.
Locations impacted include...
Great Barrington, Livingston, Copake, Sheffield, Austerlitz, Ancram,
Philmont, Housatonic, Stockbridge, Hillsdale, Taghkanic, Monterey,
Alford, Pachin Mills, Ancramdale, Hartsville, Churchtown, Glendale,
Linlithgo Mills and North Hillsdale.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
LAT...LON 4205 7348 4205 7352 4203 7352 4199 7364
4201 7373 4213 7382 4240 7343 4215 7318
TIME...MOT...LOC 0828Z 244DEG 20KT 4207 7373
KSLSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albany NY
431 AM EDT Wed Aug 21 2019
NYZ039>041-047>050-082-210915-
Southern Fulton-Eastern Schenectady-Schoharie-Northern Fulton-Western
Schenectady-Montgomery-Southern Saratoga-Northern Saratoga-
431 AM EDT Wed Aug 21 2019
...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SCHENECTADY...
SOUTHWESTERN SARATOGA...SOUTHEASTERN FULTON...NORTHERN SCHOHARIE AND
MONTGOMERY COUNTIES...
At 430 AM EDT, strong thunderstorms were clustered near Tribes Hill,
or near Fonda, moving northeast at 25 mph.
Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.
Locations impacted include...
Amsterdam, Gloversville, Johnstown, Scotia, Cobleskill, Canajoharie,
Fonda, Glenville, Duanesburg, Broadalbin, Hagaman, Richmondville,
Sharon Springs, Fort Johnson, Delanson, Galway, Ames, Rotterdam
Junction, East Glenville and Burnt Hills.
This includes the following highways...
Interstate 88 between exits 20 and 23.
Interstate 90 between exits 26 and 29.
Interstate 890 between exits 1a and 1b.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
LAT...LON 4321 7405 4289 7379 4260 7461 4278 7467
4283 7465 4284 7469 4285 7469
TIME...MOT...LOC 0830Z 244DEG 21KT 4287 7431
KSLSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albany NY
440 AM EDT Wed Aug 21 2019
NYZ040-047-048-051-210930-
Schoharie-Western Schenectady-Montgomery-Western Albany-
440 AM EDT Wed Aug 21 2019
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN SCHENECTADY...
NORTHWESTERN ALBANY...CENTRAL SCHOHARIE AND SOUTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY
COUNTIES...
At 440 AM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Summit, or 7
miles southwest of Cobleskill, moving northeast at 35 mph.
Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.
Locations impacted include...
Cobleskill, Duanesburg, Berne, Middleburgh, Summit, Schoharie,
Richmondville, Delanson, Central Bridge, Knox, Esperance, Duane,
Rockwell Corners, West Berne, Warnerville, Quaker Street, Becker
Corners, West Fulton, Shutts Corners and Barnerville.
This includes Interstate 88 between exits 20 and 24.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
LAT...LON 4262 7463 4288 7420 4268 7403 4265 7403
4249 7457 4259 7466
TIME...MOT...LOC 0840Z 240DEG 31KT 4258 7454
KSLThe Albany radar (KENX), 38 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 09:08 UTC.
23 thunderstorm wind, 7 flood, 3 hail, 2 tornado, 2 flash flood, 1 lightning. Local standard time, as filed.
Wires and large tree limbs were downed on Stage Road in the town of Charlton.
Wires and tree limbs were downed on Lake Hill Road near Charlton Girls School.
Route 111 was closed in the town of Caroga due to a downed tree.
A tree was downed on Route 30 between Mayfield and Northville.
The National Weather Service survey team confirmed an EF0 tornado in Johnstown, NY. The team found a small area where damage was consistent with a tornado with the damage extending from Johnson Ave to Pleasant Ave. Damage was confined to uprooted trees. The estimated maximum wind speed was 80 to 85 mph.
Multiple trees were downed with damage to a barn.
Wires were downed in Ballston Spa.
Trees and wires were downed on Mourningkill Drive in Ballston Spa.
Trees and wires were downed on West High Street in Ballston Spa.
Tree limbs were downed onto wires in Greenfield.
Several reports of tree limbs downed onto wires were reported in Wilton.
A large tree was downed and damaged three parked cars on Union Ave.
The National Weather Service confirmed an EF1 tornado in a portion of Saratoga Springs. There was an extensive area of damage at a residence near the intersection of Route 29 and Schallen Road where dozens of trees were downed and hardwood trees were both uprooted or snapped. In addition, a tin roof on a large barn was peeled upward on the northeast-facing side of the barn. Both of these factors strongly suggest a rotating wind field, indicative of a tornado. Winds were estimated as high as 105 mph.
Trees and wires were downed in Northumberland.
A tree was downed onto Route 9.
Tree limbs were downed in a yard in Accord.
A tree was downed onto wires at Route 32 and Creek Locks Road.
A tree was downed in the town of Easton.
The left lane on the Northway between exit 11 and exit 12 was closed due to flooding.
A tree was downed.
Trees and wires were downed in Cohoes.
A couple of trees were downed in Clinton Township.
There was urban flooding in the city of Cohoes.
Several inches of water rushed down Sixth Street, Federal Street and Hoosick Street. There was also a few feet of standing water in places downtown. Roadways were closed due to damage and debris on Federal Street, Sage Avenue and Peoples Avenue.
Trees and wires were downed on Route 66 between Route 355 and Snyders Corners Road.
Road was closed at Chalet Ct and Zermat Drive. Flash flooding was confirmed by photos.
Portions of Route 7 near the intersection with Route 787 was closed due to flooding.
Lightning hit a tree which resulted in downed wires trapping a person in a car.
A tree was downed on Route 9J near Gibbons Road.
Route 9 near Eliot Ave had one lane blocked due to flooding.
Wires were downed in Kinderhook.
All lanes on Central Ave were closed near Vatrano Road due to flooding.
A tree was downed.
Route 278 was closed in the town of Brunswick due to flooding.
There was some street flooding on South Lake Drive.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in New York in 2019Every state in 2019This day in weather historyThe tornado archive for New York, 2019Warnings in New York, August 2019
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 850282, 850283, 850284, 850285, 850280, 850286, 850287, 850288, 850289, 850290, 850291, 850292, 850281, 850293, 850276, 850294, 850295, 850296, 850297, 850268, 850298, 850277, 850278, 850299, 850300, 850269, 850265, 850302, 850267, 850270, 850279, 850303, 850273, 850304, 852635, 850305, 850274, 850275.