Scattered showers and thunderstorms developed over the Sangre de Cristo Mountains during the early afternoon of August 7, 2019. S.
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The episode as NWS ABQ wrote it up.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms developed over the Sangre de Cristo Mountains during the early afternoon of August 7, 2019. This activity moved slowly east along the U.S. Highway 64 corridor near Ute Park, resulting in flash flooding on the Ute Park burn scar. A significant surge of water, boulders, mud, and debris flowed down Turkey Creek and over-topped U.S. 64 between mile markers 303 and 304. NMDOT crews quickly cleared the roadway after flooding subsided. No damage was noted to the roadway or the bridge.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Albuquerque, NM wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 7, 2:39 PM MST, 6 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 339 PM MDT Wed Aug 7 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Typical for the middle of the monsoon, abundant moisture remains over New Mexico, and an active weather pattern with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will persist over the next several days. As high pressure aloft gently slides farther east of New Mexico, several upper level disturbances and occasional increases in moisture will move northward into the Land of Enchantment. Storms will be slow-moving at times with locally heavy downpours possible. Temperatures will generally remain near normal in western and central New Mexico, and aside from a weak cold front entering the northeastern corner, readings will stay above average in most of the eastern half of the state. && .DISCUSSION... Today's crop of thunderstorms appears to be much more subdued than 24 hours ago. Stronger 700-400 mb winds are steering storms at faster paces, except in a few isolated locations where updrafts are staying anchored to high terrain lift sources. Surface dewpoints may have dropped a couple to a few degrees from yesterday, but PWATs are still fairly high and above normal for this time of year (when climatologically we observe our highest PWATs). Coverage will continue to expand through the early evening, before a diurnal lull would likely ensue. The fly in the ointment with this is an upper level perturbation, currently over west central NM, that will translate northeastward through the evening. This could potentially provide sufficient forcing for more storms despite boundary layer stabilization after sunset. The centroid of high pressure aloft will shift farther east into TX on Thursday with another perturbation, a weak warm core low, drifting northward along the Chihuahua-Sonora border and into AZ-NM. This could provide a focal point for storm initiation into the Gila and Mogollon rim area Thursday afternoon and evening with the Sacramento-Capitan mountains also expected to see vigorous convective initiation. The other feature of interest will be a weak backdoor cold front that will slide into northeastern NM tonight into Thursday. This boundary will provide some surface convergence and also an upslope component on the east faces of the Sangre de Cristos. While the flow aloft is expected to relax considerably Thursday, a westerly component in the mid troposphere will contrast effectively with the easterly surface flow along/east of the Sangres. This could produce adequate shear profiles for some strong to severe cells in Colfax and Union counties Thursday afternoon and evening. An active day is also in store for Friday with the high poised east of NM over TX and a deep monsoon moisture plume standing over the Land of Enchantment. It's difficult to resolve the exact evolution of the perturbation mentioned for Thursday, but subsequent vort lobes are being depicted over western NM into Friday. At the very least, a robust footprint of storms will extend over the climatological favored areas, from the southwestern mountains extending to the northern mountains and even a bit eastward into the northeast corner of the state. Storms will expand and become more vigorous as the north northeastward propagating perturbations dictate. Saturday might be a less active day than Friday in our forecast area, but it will by no means be without big potential for dynamic convection just to our southwest, pending an inverted trough or other short wave disturbance. Such a wave certainly seems likely as a mid latitude low will be making landfall in Oregon, offering a squeeze of the monsoon moisture and any disturbances toward NM. By Sunday, the moisture plume will nudge east slightly, blanketing much of the forecast area with high PWATs and scattered to numerous storms. Uncertainty exists on Monday and Tuesday with regards to the progression and placement of any disturbances aloft, but overall the moisture should stay intact over the eastern half of the state. Farther into next week, high pressure may attempt to rebuild farther west. 52 && .FIRE WEATHER... The center of the upper level high pressure system will shift eastward over TX Thursday through Saturday, then over eastern OK early next week. Abundant monsoon moisture will stream north and northeastward across NM through Monday with occasional moist back door fronts and almost daily disturbances working their way around the periphery of the ridge. With PWATs around and over 1 inch, locally heavy rainfall will be possible each day with a risk of flash flooding below burn scars. In the wake of Monday's disturbance, drier air will filter over the area from the northwest making convection spottier in the west starting Tuesday, but not until Wednesday in the east due to shallow moisture delivered by a back door front there Tuesday. High temperatures will generally vary from near to several degrees above normal each day with the warmest departures above normal across eastern areas. 44 && .AVIATION... 18Z TAF CYCLE All TAF sites will have at least a 20% chance of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and/or evening. The best chance will stretch from the southwest and west central mountains northeastward to the Sangre de Cristo Mountains, where scattered to numerous storms will be found. Cells will generally travel to the northeast at speeds from 10-20 mph, which will carry scattered to isolated activity onto the eastern plains. Wet microbursts are expected with the potential for erratic wind gusts over 45 kt near stronger storms. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 62 93 65 91 / 20 10 10 30 Dulce........................... 53 87 55 86 / 30 10 20 40 Cuba............................ 58 87 61 86 / 40 20 30 50 Gallup.......................... 57 89 59 86 / 30 40 20 60 El Morro........................ 55 84 56 80 / 30 50 40 70 Grants.......................... 56 86 58 83 / 30 50 40 70 Quemado......................... 56 84 57 81 / 30 70 40 80 Datil........................... 56 84 56 82 / 30 70 60 80 Glenwood........................ 63 89 64 88 / 30 60 40 70 Chama........................... 51 78 52 77 / 50 30 30 60 Los Alamos...................... 62 84 63 83 / 40 30 40 60 Pecos........................... 59 84 59 82 / 30 40 40 60 Cerro/Questa.................... 54 80 54 79 / 50 70 50 70 Red River....................... 48 73 49 72 / 50 70 60 70 Angel Fire...................... 43 76 44 75 / 30 70 60 80 Taos............................ 55 85 55 84 / 40 50 30 60 Mora............................ 55 82 54 79 / 30 60 60 70 Espanola........................ 60 89 62 89 / 40 30 30 50 Santa Fe........................ 62 85 63 84 / 40 30 30 60 Santa Fe Airport................ 61 88 61 87 / 30 20 30 50 Albuquerque Foothills........... 66 91 68 90 / 30 10 30 50 Albuquerque Heights............. 70 92 70 91 / 30 10 30 40 Albuquerque Valley.............. 65 94 65 93 / 30 10 30 40 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 67 92 67 91 / 30 10 30 40 Los Lunas....................... 64 93 65 92 / 30 10 40 40 Rio Rancho...................... 68 93 68 92 / 30 10 30 40 Socorro......................... 68 96 68 95 / 40 30 50 40 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 59 87 60 86 / 30 20 40 60 Tijeras......................... 63 90 64 89 / 30 20 30 60 Moriarty/Estancia............... 56 90 56 88 / 30 20 30 50 Clines Corners.................. 60 86 60 84 / 30 20 40 60 Gran Quivira.................... 62 90 62 89 / 30 30 30 50 Carrizozo....................... 66 93 66 91 / 30 30 20 50 Ruidoso......................... 54 86 55 85 / 30 60 30 70 Capulin......................... 57 84 57 83 / 40 60 60 70 Raton........................... 57 89 57 86 / 40 70 60 70 Springer........................ 58 89 58 86 / 30 70 60 70 Las Vegas....................... 56 85 56 82 / 30 50 50 60 Clayton......................... 64 92 63 89 / 40 30 60 40 Roy............................. 61 90 61 86 / 30 40 50 50 Conchas......................... 68 99 68 94 / 30 20 50 40 Santa Rosa...................... 68 99 68 97 / 30 20 40 40 Tucumcari....................... 70 101 70 98 / 20 20 50 30 Clovis.......................... 68 98 68 95 / 20 10 30 20 Portales........................ 70 100 70 97 / 20 10 30 20 Fort Sumner..................... 69 97 69 96 / 30 10 30 30 Roswell......................... 73 102 74 102 / 30 10 30 30 Picacho......................... 66 93 66 93 / 30 40 30 40 Elk............................. 63 89 63 89 / 40 60 30 50 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && 52
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 252 AM MDT Wed Aug 7 2019 NMZ501>540-081200- Northwest Plateau-Chuska Mountains-Far Northwest Highlands- Northwest Highlands-West Central Plateau-West Central Mountains- West Central Highlands-Southwest Mountains- San Francisco River Valley-San Juan Mountains-Jemez Mountains- West Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains- Northern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet/Red River- Southern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet- East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Upper Rio Grande Valley- Lower Chama River Valley-Santa Fe Metro Area- Middle Rio Grande Valley/Albuquerque Metro Area- Lower Rio Grande Valley-Sandia/Manzano Mountains-Estancia Valley- Central Highlands-South Central Highlands-Upper Tularosa Valley- South Central Mountains-Raton Ridge/Johnson Mesa- Far Northeast Highlands-Northeast Highlands-Union County- Harding County-Eastern San Miguel County-Guadalupe County- Quay County-Curry County-Roosevelt County-De Baca County- Chaves County Plains-Eastern Lincoln County-Southwest Chaves County- 252 AM MDT Wed Aug 7 2019 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of north and central New Mexico. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Showers and thunderstorms over western and northern New Mexico could produce locally heavy rainfall this afternoon and evening, leading to flash flooding. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday Showers and thunderstorms with heavy rainfall will continue to impact much of northern and central New Mexico Thursday through the weekend. The potential for flash flooding will increase with each day of heavy rainfall, particularly over burn scars, steep terrain, urban drainages, and areas that receive additional heavy rainfall. Drier air may work into northwest New Mexico early next week, bringing some relief from heavy rainfall but there is low confidence in the forecast models at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to report rain amounts as well as any flooding through the National Weather Service Albuquerque web site at weather.gov/abq or by calling 1.888.386.7637. You can also submit storm reports and photos on our Facebook page or via Twitter using the hashtag nmwx.
The Albuquerque radar (KABX), 225 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 21:44 UTC.
1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
A significant surge of flood waters with boulders, mud, and debris impacted U.S. Highway 64 at Turkey Creek. No damage was noted to the roadway or the bridge.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in New Mexico in 2019Every state in 2019This day in weather historyWarnings in New Mexico, August 2019
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 834650.