Hail in Nevada, September 23, 2019

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
255 PM PDT Mon Sep 23 2019

.SYNOPSIS...A vigorous low pressure system that has brought
showers and thunderstorms to northwest Arizona will continue
sagging south tonight. With the moisture also retreating
southward, shower and storm chances decrease overnight into
Tuesday morning. As the low stalls out south of the area, expect
dry northeast breezes for the middle of the week, then shower and
thunderstorm chances wrapping back into the region late Wednesday
into Thursday. Another potent trough will begin impacting the
region by the weekend with increasing southwesterly winds and
precipitation chances for the southern Great Basin.
&&

.DISCUSSION...through Sunday.

High resolution models generally on track, though timing seems to
be a few hours earlier than anticipated thus far. Tropical
moisture from the former tropical system Lorena has advected
northward over Arizona, while a potent upper-level trough digs
down through the region and closes off. This has resulted in the
expected severe thunderstorm and flash flood threat over Mohave
county and adjacent areas.

Through tonight, the stronger storms are expected to wane, as the
loss of daytime heating and already generated cold pools act to
stabilize the atmosphere. However, cold air moving in aloft will
continue to steepen mid-level lapse rates, and forcing for ascent
will continue to increase through the evening, both of which will
likely keep at least some activity going till about midnight.

As the upper-level low closes off and drifts slowly southward
tomorrow, retreating moisture should end shower and thunderstorm
chances for a day or two, and result in east to northeast breezes
across the area with moderating temperatures. The low begins to
drift back northward Wednesday and Thursday, wrapping
precipitation chances back into the region late Wednesday and
Thursday. By Friday, this low will get kicked out of the region by
a deeper trough digging into the western US, which will begin
impacting the region on Friday.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Showers and storms will end for the region
tonight as a low pressure system sinks south of the area and
stalls. Generally northeasterly breezes can be expected for the
middle of the week, with moisture retreating to the south. The
previously mentioned low will wobble back northward Wednesday into
Thursday, wrapping moisture and precipitation chances back around
into the region. Another potent low pressure system begins
impacting the region over the weekend with increasing southwest
winds.
&&

.AVIATION...For McCarran...Southwest winds should prevail with a
cold front approaching from the north unless thunderstorm outflow
winds make it into the valley as suggested by output from some of
the most recent hires model runs. For sky cover, scattered clouds
around 10k feet with broken clouds AOA 15k feet are expected. Winds
could favor a southeast direction through much of the evening before
the front turns them to the north but confidence is lower.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...T-storms will remain focused across the lower Colorado
River Valley and NW Arizona areas but possible anywhere south of the
I-15 in Clark and eastern San Bernardino counties. CIGs dropping to
5-7 kft, strong winds and hail will be possible with some storms.
Storm activity will wane mid to late evening. Generally, north winds
around 7-12 kts along with scattered CIGs at or above 10kft are
expected overnight.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...A Flash Flood Watch is in
remains in effect for portions of Mohave county along with a
Severe Thunderstorm Watch through this evening. Spotter activation
for Mohave county is requested for flooding, wind damage, and hail
size reports needed. Elsewhere in nearby southern Nevada and
southeast California, spotters are encouraged to report any
significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&

DISCUSSION...Steele
AVIATION.....Salmen

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1248 PM PDT MON SEP 23 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1243 PM     HAIL             1 NNE DESERT HILLS      34.56N 114.36W
09/23/2019  E1.00 INCH       MOHAVE             AZ   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED QUARTER-SIZED HAIL.
            ON THE NORTH SIDE OF LAKE HAVASU CITY NEAR
            THE AIRPORT.

&&

CFS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
340 PM PDT MON SEP 23 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0230 PM     FLASH FLOOD      3 NNE MOHAVE VALLEY     34.97N 114.57W
09/23/2019                   MOHAVE             AZ   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTED BOUNDARY CONE
            ROAD IN MOHAVE VALLEY WAS FLOODED AND
            IMPASSABLE.

&&

TB3

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
344 PM PDT MON SEP 23 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0130 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 SE FORT MOHAVE        35.00N 114.58W
09/23/2019                   MOHAVE             AZ   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTED ROADWAY FLOODING
            IN THE MESQUITE CREEK SUBDIVISION IN FORT
            MOHAVE MESA NEAR JACK RABBIT AND WAGON WHEEL
            RDS.

&&

TB3

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
352 PM PDT MON SEP 23 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0130 PM     HAIL             1 SE FORT MOHAVE        35.00N 114.58W
09/23/2019  U1.00 INCH       MOHAVE             AZ   EMERGENCY MNGR

            QUARTER SIZED HAIL REPORTED BY MOHAVE COUNTY
            EMERGENCY MANAGER IN THE MESQUITE CREEK
            SUBDIVISION NEAR JACK RABBIT AND WAGON WHEEL
            ROADS.

&&

TB3

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
550 PM PDT MON SEP 23 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0544 PM     HAIL             9 NNE DESERT HILLS      34.66N 114.29W
09/23/2019  E1.00 INCH       MOHAVE             AZ   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            HAVASU HEIGHTS FIRE DEPARTMENT REPORTED
            QUARTER SIZED HAIL FALLING.

&&

TB3