Hail and Damaging Winds in Nebraska, August 6 to 7, 2019

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
909 PM CDT Tue Aug 6 2019

.UPDATE...
Issued at 904 PM CDT Tue Aug 6 2019

The forecast has been updated to add the chance for strong to
severe thunderstorms across portions of central Nebraska. A
cluster of storms is currently tracking southeast across south
central South Dakota and is expected to track into central
Nebraska by 1000 PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 317 PM CDT Tue Aug 6 2019

Main forecast challenge is thunderstorm chances tonight. Monsoonal
moisture continues to rotate into the Central Plains. Precipitable
water values currently range from at least an inch to around an
inch and a half. Most unstable capes have increase to above 4000
J/KG. While it is likely that surfaced based storms will develop
by early this evening the location remains in question. Various
mesoscale models including the NMMM, ARW, and to a lesser extent
the HRRR and RAP suggest initiation of a thunderstorm cluster near
a Thedford to Brewster segment. Storm would then grow upscale and
move southeast given the instability and strong shear aloft.
OVerall POPs across the forecast area range from 30 to 40 percent
this evening given the model spread. A second concern is the
likely development of an MCS now beginning to develop a few
thunderstorms over wrn and cntrl ND. These storms should develop
into an MCS to propagate southeastward into eastern portions of
nctrl and nern NE near 06Z while continuing to move southeast.
This is likely to develop additional thunderstorms westward
across the central Sandhills overnight. Far southwestern areas
should remain outside any of this activity after midnight to
remain dry.

Lingering showers/storms in the morning in central NE, with a
slight chance returning to west and swrn areas in the afternoon.
Not expected much focus for storms until the next disturbance move
through Wednesday night. Highs to range from 86 to 92. A marginal
risk for severe to cover all of wrn NE except the far northeast
in general thunderstorm outlook. POPs Wed. night to range from
30-40 percent.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT Tue Aug 6 2019

Daily chances for thunderstorms Thursday through Tuesday as the
upper ridge extending into the Rockies flattens out and extends
across the Southern Plains and sern U.S by late this weekend.
Highs cool to around 80 Thursday and Friday then mid 80s this
weekend, then back into the upper 70s to around 80 by monday and
Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 629 PM CDT Tue Aug 6 2019

The main concern for this TAF period will be for the chances of
thunderstorms. Latest satellite and radar imagery shows
thunderstorms moving across the Nebraska Panhandle and portions of
central South Dakota. Latest model guidance suggests that the
storms in South Dakota will continue to track south and into
central Nebraska. Timing for the storms to impact central Nebraska
will be between 03z and 12z. Any strong to severe storms will be
generally along and east of highway 83. Aside from any
thunderstorms, VFR conditions are expected across the region
through the TAF period.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

UPDATE...Thorne
SHORT TERM...Roberg
LONG TERM...Roberg
AVIATION...Thorne

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service North Platte NE
323 PM CDT Tue Aug 6 2019

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-072030-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-
Grant-Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-
Logan-Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
323 PM CDT Tue Aug 6 2019 /223 PM MDT Tue Aug 6 2019/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and
north central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this evening
across the Panhandle and northwest Nebraska, possibly affecting
the Sandhills and southwest Nebraska.

Another area of strong to severe storms are expected to affect
north central Nebraska late this evening and overnight.

The severe weather hazards in both areas are large hail, damaging
winds, locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

Thunderstorm chances exist virtually every day through next
Monday. A marginal risk of severe weather is in place for
Wednesday evening, with large hail and strong winds being the
primary threats. Refer to later forecasts regarding severe
potential for Thursday and beyond.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed across all of western and north
central Nebraska tonight. Reports of hail, wind, and flooding are
appreciated.

&&

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