Westerly to northwesterly flow aloft and embedded shortwave disturbances affect the CWA. Simultaneously, temperatures remain near-normal as high pressure aloft builds slowly from the west.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS TFX wrote it up.
Westerly to northwesterly flow aloft and embedded shortwave disturbances affect the CWA. Simultaneously, temperatures remain near-normal as high pressure aloft builds slowly from the west. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms remain possible, especially during the afternoon and evening hours, as well as over and near higher terrain. No severe thunderstorms are anticipated, since instability and vertical shear |should remain modest. Nevertheless, strong wind gusts, small hail, and downpours may accompany any storm.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Great Falls, MT wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 16, 1:51 PM MST, 2 hours 2 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 251 PM MDT Sun Jun 16 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Near-normal temperatures through this Tuesday will be accompanied by isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms daily. The best chance for these showers and storms exists each afternoon and evening, as well as over and near higher terrain. A cooling trend begins this Wednesday and continues through the upcoming weekend, with below-normal temperatures expected next week Thursday through Sunday. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms remain possible, and some snow may fall in our mountains. && .DISCUSSION... Rest of today through Tuesday...Westerly to northwesterly flow aloft and embedded shortwave disturbances affect our CWA. Simultaneously, temperatures remain near-normal as high pressure aloft builds slowly from the west. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms remain possible daily, especially each afternoon and evening, as well as over and near higher terrain. No severe thunderstorms are anticipated through Monday, since instability and vertical shear should remain modest. Nevertheless, strong wind gusts, small hail, and downpours may accompany any storm. The potential of severe thunderstorms may increase on Tuesday, when a weak cold front sweeps eastward through our CWA and may encounter greater instability and vertical wind shear, particularly over the eastern-half of north- central MT. Wednesday through next Sunday...Another and stronger surface cold front is progged to sweep southeastward across our CWA Wednesday as a trough aloft overspreads the region from the north and west. This cold front still looks to cross the CWA earlier in the day. Thus, diurnal destabilization of the atmosphere and the potential for additional severe thunderstorms should be limited. However, critical fire weather conditions may develop behind the cold front as gusty, westerly surface winds occur. See our fire weather discussion for further details. Latest ensemble mean 500 mb heights from the EPS and GEFS remain in rather good agreement that the broad mid- to upper-level trough will persist over our CWA during Thursday through the upcoming weekend as the trough moves generally eastward. Simultaneously, the ensemble means depict unusually-low 500 mb heights, signaling an unusually-cool air mass accompanying the trough. Thus, a cooling trend occurs during this period, with below- normal temperatures affecting our region Thursday through next Sunday. In addition, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms remain possible, and periods of snow may fall in the mountains, especially at elevations above 7000 feet MSL. - Jaszka && .AVIATION... Updated 1058 AM MDT Sun Jun 16 2019 (18Z/Sun TAFs) Northwesterly flow aloft and VFR persist next 24-hours as high pressure builds slowly from the west. However, multiple disturbances embedded in the flow aloft affect our area. Accordingly, isolated showers and thunderstorms persist, especially through about 06Z/Mon. Downpours and erratic surface wind gusts up to 35 knots may accompany any shower or storm, while small hail may also accompany thunderstorms. Regional surface winds remain light outside any outflow (i.e. precip-cooled air emanating from any shower or storm). - Jaszka && .FIRE WEATHER... A strong cold front should sweep eastward across north-central and southwest MT on Wednesday. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible along and ahead of this front. In addition, southwesterly winds ahead of the front should shift to stronger westerly winds behind the front. These westerly winds may gust to at least 20 to 35 mph and accompany minimum relative humidity values near 15 to 30 percent in many areas Wednesday afternoon and early evening. Thus, critical fire weather conditions are possible and we will continue to monitor this situation. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 49 75 53 78 / 30 20 10 30 CTB 46 74 50 76 / 20 30 20 30 HLN 50 77 52 80 / 40 60 40 20 BZN 46 75 47 78 / 60 50 30 20 WEY 39 69 39 70 / 40 70 40 30 DLN 46 72 47 75 / 50 60 30 10 HVR 45 77 51 80 / 20 10 10 60 LWT 44 70 49 73 / 20 40 30 70 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
419 PM MDT Sun Jun 16 2019
MTZ014-053-162245-
Broadwater-Central and Southern Lewis and Clark-
419 PM MDT Sun Jun 16 2019
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN LEWIS AND CLARK...
AND NORTHWESTERN BROADWATER COUNTIES...
At 418 PM MDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 10 miles northeast
of East Helena, or 15 miles east of Helena, moving south at 10 mph.
Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.
Locations impacted include...
Goose Bay, Canyon Ferry Lake, and Winston.
This includes Highway 12 between mile markers 56 and 65.
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
If you are on or near Canyon Ferry Lake, get out of the water and
move indoors or inside a vehicle. Remember, lightning can strike out
to 10 miles from the parent thunderstorm. If you can hear thunder,
you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Move to safe shelter
now! Do not be caught on the water in a thunderstorm.
LAT...LON 4673 11162 4651 11146 4644 11178 4657 11179
4657 11181 4670 11182
TIME...MOT...LOC 2218Z 346DEG 10KT 4665 11171
KredensorSpecial Weather Statement National Weather Service Great Falls MT 447 PM MDT Sun Jun 16 2019 MTZ053-162315- Broadwater- 447 PM MDT Sun Jun 16 2019 ...A THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN BROADWATER COUNTY... At 446 PM MDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 13 miles north of Townsend, moving southeast at 15 mph. Winds in excess of 30 mph are possible with this storm. Locations impacted include... Townsend, Canyon Ferry Lake, Silos, Winston and Goose Bay. This includes Highway 12 between mile markers 1 and 4 , and between mile markers 63 and 76. If you are on or near Canyon Ferry lake, get out of the water and move indoors or inside a vehicle. Remember, lightning can strike out to 10 miles from the parent thunderstorm. If you can hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Move to safe shelter now! Do not be caught on the water in a thunderstorm. LAT...LON 4649 11171 4662 11156 4646 11125 4628 11147 TIME...MOT...LOC 2246Z 310DEG 14KT 4651 11156 Kredensor
The Billings radar (KBLX), 191 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 22:52 UTC.
1 funnel cloud. Local standard time, as filed.
Received multiple reports and pictures from spotters, 911 dispatch and the public of at least one funnel cloud that moved over the Bozeman area, persisting for 15 to 20 minutes. Based upon pictures shared, this was most likely a cold air funnel.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Montana in 2019Every state in 2019This day in weather historyWarnings in Montana, June 2019
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 839451.