A wave of low pressure moved northeast along a cold front that was sinking southeast across the lower Ohio Valley and southeast Missouri. Southwest winds aloft overrunning the cool air north of the surface boundary brought widespread heavy rain.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS PAH wrote it up.
A wave of low pressure moved northeast along a cold front that was sinking southeast across the lower Ohio Valley and southeast Missouri. Southwest winds aloft overrunning the cool air north of the surface boundary brought widespread heavy rain.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Paducah, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Nov 21, 11:42 PM CST, 18 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 1142 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2019 .UPDATE... Issued at 1141 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2019 Updated Aviation Discussion for 06z TAFs. && .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday Night) Issued at 415 PM EST Thu Nov 21 2019 Two primary systems are expected to affect the PAH forecast area in the short term, the bigger one being tonight as a wave of low pressure moves northeast along a cold front that will be sinking southeast across the lower OH Valley. Overrunning aloft along and north of the surface boundary is expected to bring widespread rains tonight to our area, with the largest push of QPF spreading northeast across the 4-state region after 9 pm CST. Some locations, especially over southeast MO, western KY, and the southern tip of IL could receive up to around an inch of rainfall by sunrise Friday. Though some light rains may linger over portions of western KY Friday morning, it appears that many other locations will end up precip-free for much of the day. However, lingering clouds and brisk north winds will serve to hold afternoon temperatures in the mid- upper 40s at most locations. A second low pressure system will try to develop Friday night from MS up through the TN River Valley as the main mid-level shortwave over the Plains lifts northeast toward the mid/upper MS River Valley. With the surface low passing south and east of our forecast area, highest precip amounts will likely be confined to portions of western KY. Still, overall rainfall amounts with this second batch of precip are expected to remain below a half inch at most locations. Though most of the lingering precip should be ending from west to east Saturday morning, clouds will be slow to clear as the mid-level trough comes through the region during the day. Once again, extensive clouds and northwest surface winds are expected to keep afternoon temperatures in the 40s. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 415 PM EST Thu Nov 21 2019 The mid-level pattern over the eastern CONUS will be quasi-zonal through at least most of Monday night, while a surface high centered in the Deep South gradually slides eastward. By Tuesday, a significant shortwave originating in the Pacific Northwest is shown by most deterministic models and ensemble means, with timing differences, to swing rapidly across the CONUS, strengthening with time. There should be much wind shear across our region with this system, but instability appears very limited at this time. Thus, no lightning or severe weather is expected with this feature at this time. However, most medium range models suggest the development of a surface low that could move across the PAH forecast area Tuesday, at least boosting surface wind gusts. The National Blend depicted the presence of scattered showers Tuesday/Tuesday night with about a 50/50 POP, with a drying/clearing trend for midweek under ridging at the surface and aloft. However, there is quite a bit of evidence in the medium range models and ensembles that a large scale mid-level low/trough will dig into the southwestern CONUS by Thanksgiving (Day 7), setting up deep moist southwesterly flow well ahead of it, perhaps triggering some shower activity later on Thanksgiving or that night in parts of our area. Expect a modest warm-up from Sunday through Tuesday, followed by a slow cool-down through Day 7. && .AVIATION... Issued at 1141 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2019 SHRA activity will continue overnight before ending during the morning hrs tomorrow. A few isolated lightning strikes can't be completely ruled out before 12z near KCGI/KPAH terminals and points south. Cold front making southward progress now has resulted in ceilings rising from IFR/LIFR into low MVFR threshold behind it. Vsbys will largely be in MVFR territory overnight, with some IFR conditions for a time, primarily before front makes passage. Winds will become northerly around 10-12 kts behind the cold front. Ceilings are expected to rise into VFR category from north to south during the day tomorrow, but we may see a return of MVFR ceilings in southern half of region tomorrow evening. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && UPDATE...SP AVIATION...SP
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Paducah KY Issued by National Weather Service Louisville KY 321 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2019 ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087- 100-107>112-114-222130- Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton- White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope- Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh- Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves- Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell- Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean- Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter- Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid- 321 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2019 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast Missouri. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight Widespread moderate to heavy rains will spread eastward across the region tonight. Up to an inch and a half of rain will fall over the southern half of the region with the greatest amounts from the Missouri Bootheel eastward along the Tennessee border. A few minor flooding issues may develop. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday The heavy rainfall will gradually come to an end by late Friday morning. Total rainfall may exceed 2 inches from the Missouri Bootheel eastward along the Tennessee border. Minor flooding issues will be possible in these areas through the day Friday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed. AMS
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Three low water crossings were impassable. The storm total rainfall was 3.13 inches at Ellsinore.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Missouri in 2019Every state in 2019This day in weather historyWarnings in Missouri, November 2019
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 863322.