A couple of isolated storms became severe near the Arkansas border. The storms produced some large hail before they moved south into Arkansas.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS PAH wrote it up.
A couple of isolated storms became severe near the Arkansas border. The storms produced some large hail before they moved south into Arkansas. The storms developed along a southward moving cold front during the warmest and most unstable time of day. Northwest winds aloft were sufficiently strong to result in wind shear profiles supportive of severe multicell storms.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Paducah, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 15, 6:10 AM CST, 7 hours 50 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 710 AM CDT Wed May 15 2019 .UPDATE... Issued at 703 AM CDT Wed May 15 2019 For aviation section only. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night) Issued at 330 AM CDT Wed May 15 2019 Low pressure moving slowly southeast through MO today is already producing an area of showers and thunderstorms early this morning over portions of southeast MO and southern Illinois. Main hazards with this activity as it continues southeastward toward and across the Ohio River this morning will come with lightning and locally heavy downpours. Will still be some lingering small chances for more isolated to scattered activity, but current thinking is most locations will have a rain-free afternoon. High temperatures today will be highly dependent on how much sunshine we can manage to generate. Most locations should top out from near 70 to near 80. Thereafter, the remainder of the short term forecast looks to be dominated by ridging in the mid/upper levels of the atmosphere. This generally means a turn to more of a summer-like pattern, with increasing temps into the mid and even upper 80s Thursday and Friday. The ridging aloft should keep most shower/thunderstorm activity north/east of the forecast area. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 330 AM CDT Wed May 15 2019 An active weather pattern is expected to develop this weekend and last into next week. The large scale upper-level flow pattern will consist of a deepening trough over the western states. A series of rather strong shortwave troughs will eject northeast through the Plains to the Great Lakes. Surface low pressure systems will track from the central Plains to the western Great Lakes. Our region will be in a persistent south to southwest flow of warm, moist, and unstable air. Saturday looks like the last dry day for a while. The upper level ridge will still be close by, holding off any precipitation through at least Saturday evening. Abundant sunshine and southerly breezes will push high temps well up into the 80s. The first in the series of storm systems will track to our northwest Sunday and Sunday night. The combination of increasing upper-level divergence and moist southerly low-level flow will generate at least scattered convection. The 00z suite of models indicates the passage of the 500 mb shortwave will occur by midday Sunday, which would limit convective development during the peak heating hours. However, Sunday is still beyond the time frame of the high res guidance, so the details of convective timing and intensity are sketchy. Morning storms on Sunday could affect the intensity of storms ahead of the cold front during the peak heating hours. In any case, wind fields will be marginally supportive of organized storm structures if instability becomes sufficient. On Monday, our region will be between upper-level shortwaves. The remnants of the cold front associated with the first system will become poorly defined over our region. Convection could develop in the vicinity of any lingering low-level convergence associated with the front. The forecast will maintain low chance pops for most of the forecast area, mainly south of a line from kmdh to kevv. Highs will be in the lower 80s. A second upper-level shortwave will likely eject northeast from the southern Plains on Tuesday. Although it is too early to rely on deterministic models at day 7, both the 00z ecmwf and gfs depict a potent shortwave with plenty of moisture, instability, and shear. This system bears watching over the next several days for convective potential. && .AVIATION... Issued at 700 AM CDT Wed May 15 2019 Area of showers and scattered thunderstorms continues to move southeast across much of se MO/srn IL/wrn KY. Cigs are mainly VFR with this activity, but are seeing heavy downpours reduce vsbys to IFR at times. Could see additional redevelopment over southeast MO this afternoon, but chances appear to be too small at this time to include in the fcst. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && UPDATE...GM SHORT TERM...GM LONG TERM...MY
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Paducah KY 427 AM CDT Wed May 15 2019 ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087- 100-107>112-114-161000- Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton- White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope- Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh- Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves- Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell- Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean- Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter- Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid- 427 AM CDT Wed May 15 2019 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast Missouri. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Scattered thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall are expected today, especially during the morning hours. A few storms may contain some small hail. Several river points remain above flood stage. Please refer to flood statements for details. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible Saturday night through Tuesday. A few strong to severe storms will be possible, mainly during the day on Sunday. Continued river flooding details can be accessed via the latest flood statements. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be required Sunday. Please stay in touch with later forecasts.
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Paducah KY
203 PM CDT Wed May 15 2019
MOZ107>109-151930-
Butler MO-Carter MO-Ripley MO-
203 PM CDT Wed May 15 2019
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN CARTER...
NORTHEASTERN RIPLEY AND NORTHWESTERN BUTLER COUNTIES UNTIL 230 PM
CDT...
At 202 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Brush Arbor, or 15 miles northwest of Poplar Bluff, moving south at
20 mph.
Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.
Locations impacted include...
Poplar Bluff, Budapest, Milltown and Brush Arbor.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.
&&
LAT...LON 3691 9075 3693 9068 3693 9056 3673 9044
3668 9072
TIME...MOT...LOC 1902Z 340DEG 17KT 3686 9066
DWSPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
238 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2019
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0235 PM HAIL 2 W POPLAR BLUFF 36.76N 90.44W
05/15/2019 M0.25 INCH BUTLER MO EMERGENCY MNGR
PEA SIZED HAIL ON THE BUTLER SIDE OF THE RIPLEY-BUTLER
COUNTY LINE, ON COUNTY ROAD 461 OFF MARY HIGHWAY.
&&
DAVIDHThe Memphis radar (KNQA), 164 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 19:58 UTC.
2 hail. Local standard time, as filed.
Quarter to golf-ball size hail was reported from Fairdealing to three miles west of Fairdealing.
Quarter-size hail fell near Poynor.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Missouri in 2019Every state in 2019This day in weather historyWarnings in Missouri, May 2019
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 814731, 814730.