Hail in Missouri, May 14, 2019

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1215 PM CDT Tue May 14 2019

.Discussion...
Issued at 427 AM CDT TUE MAY 14 2019

Broad upper level ridge over the western half of the US will keep
NW flow over the forecast area for most of the work week. At the
surface, high pressure centered over the Mississippi Valley will
continue to slide east allowing plenty of warm air advection and
increased low level moisture through at least Friday. This
morning, a weak short wave over eastern Nebraska/western Iowa is
helping to kick off showers and thunderstorms. As this system
continues to slide southeast into southern Iowa and northern
Missouri, isolated thunderstorm activity can be expected mainly
north of Highway 36 until noon today. Additional convection is
possible by early evening as strong capping eventually breaks down
and unstable conditions allows for isolated thunderstorm
development over central Missouri until midnight.

For Wednesday, a weak boundary sets up west to east across central
Missouri and could be a focal point for convection, however, with
a strong cap again in place, any thunderstorm activity will be
limited. Warming trend continues Thursday as upper level ridge
moves over the region and summer like temperatures arrive with
highs reaching the upper 80s for many locations. The weather
pattern changes on Friday as upper level ridging finally moves
east and southwest flow aloft moves into the area as the next
long wave trough deepens over the western US.

Long range models agree that the overall long wave pattern
changes little for the weekend and early next week. Model
differences are in timing of several strong short waves as they
rotate through the base long wave trough. Potential exists for
periods of strong to severe thunderstorms and heavy rain and over
the weekend and possibly into early next week.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1212 PM CDT TUE MAY 14 2019

VFR conditions with a light southerly wind will start out the
period into the late afternoon. Just before sunrise scattered
showers and thunderstorms are expected to form up mainly over
northern Missouri, just east of most of the TAF sites. The
initial development could occur near KSTJ so VCTS was mentioned in
that 23z-02z timeframe before those storms move to the SE into
central Missouri. Overnight there is a chance for fog to form up
over western Missouri and eastern Kansas so MVFR visibility has
been mentioned, but areas that do get rain tonight may have a
good chance of IFR to LIFR near sunrise so this will need to be
monitored with subsequent forecasts.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

Discussion...CDB/Otto
Aviation...Barham

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
509 AM CDT Tue May 14 2019

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-151015-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
509 AM CDT Tue May 14 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

 A few strong thunderstorms are possible today. Hail to quarter size
 and 50 to 60 mph winds are possible in the strongest storms.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

 An active weather pattern will develop this weekend into early next
 week with several rounds of thunderstorms expected. At this time,
 severe storms can't be ruled out this weekend and into next week.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo